After a couple of early games this Saturday, the NBA features a nice three-game spotlight slate this Saturday night. The Lakers and the Nuggets clash in the headline game on National TV, while the other two games are Western Conference rematches of games from earlier in the week. The Blazers and Grizzlies played each other Friday night and will meet again on Saturday in Memphis to finish their back-to-back. The other four teams all had Friday off, but the Suns do have another home game on Sunday to finish their back-to-back against the Thunder.
At this point in the season, monitoring the latest injury news throughout the day is extremely important, especially on a small slate like this where any absence can have a huge impact. As updates are released, be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and adjustments.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Coming out of the All-Star break, Jamal Murray had three strong games in wins over the Wizards, Warriors, and Kings. He exceeded salary-based expectations in two of those three games, producing 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute. On Thursday though, he tweaked his ankle and was forced to leave early against the Heat, falling well short of salary-based expectations.
He is questionable for Saturday’s showdown with the Lakers but has the highest ceiling projection of all point guards on FanDuel if he plays, along with the second-highest median and floor projections at the position. On DraftKings, he has the second-highest ceiling projection and third-highest median and floor projection since Devin Booker has extra point guard eligibility on that site and ranks just above Murray.
If he plays through the injury, Murray will be in a favorable matchup against the Lakers. When he faced them early in February, he lit them up for 29 points and 11 assists in an eight-point Nuggets victory.
Value
Jordan Goodwin is in a unique situation with the Grizzlies, who continue to be extremely shorthanded at point guard. Goodwin joined the team on a 10-day contract and is now playing on a two-way deal that limits his number of games with the NBA team while he splits time in the G League as well (at least in theory). As a result, he was inactive for the Grizzlies’ first two games out of the break, but then he started and had a big workload in each of their last two games.
With so many injuries, Goodwin is expected to start again on Saturday in the second game of their two-game back-to-back set with Portland. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest ceiling projection of all point guards priced under $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
On Friday in the first game against the Blazers, Goodwin exceeded salary-based expectations for the fourth straight game. He had 10 points, four blocks, three rebounds, and two assists in 34 minutes. In his three starts this season for Memphis, he produced 0.92 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute in 31.0 minutes per game.
Fast Break
Anfernee Simons didn’t light up the Grizzlies on Friday, finishing with just seven points and eight assists in 26 minutes and sitting the entire fourth quarter since the Blazers had a big lead. He still has the highest median and floor projections of all point guards on Saturday’s slate on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. Simons’ high ceiling makes him a strong pay-up play on this small slate despite his volatility.
Over the last month, the Lakers have been getting solid production from D’Angelo Russell, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He averaged 1.10 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute in 36.3 minutes per game over that stretch and has been fairly consistent with 18+ points in five straight games.
If Murray sits, Reggie Jackson would be a good value play in an expanded role. Spencer Dinwiddie is another veteran punt play with decent projections if you decide to go bargain-shopping at point guard.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
If you’re paying up for a high-priced guard on Saturday’s small slate, Devin Booker is the biggest name on the board. Booker has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the highest at point guard as well on DraftKings.
The Suns have the highest implied team total on the main slate, and Booker has a 29.6% usage projection in his 36.8 projected minutes. He has scored over 20 points in seven of his last eight games, with the only time he fell short being in a game he was ejected from in the first quarter against the Pistons. In those eight games, Booker averaged 1.23 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute
On Thursday, Booker got into a scuffle with Cam Whitmore against the Rockets and dropped 35 points to go with seven rebounds and three assists while exceeding salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He should be fired up for another big game against the Rockets on Saturday. The expected return of Bradley Beal (hamstring) could reduce his workload a little bit, but on this limited slate, Booker’s raw ceiling is unmatched in the backcourt, making him a top pay-up play.
Value
Our projections loved Jalen Green in the Rockets-Suns matchup on Thursday, and he came through with a monster 34-point performance. Green should be in a good spot to out-produce salary-based expectations again on Saturday and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both guard positions on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Green had been struggling with his shot a bit after the break but broke through with seven three-pointers on Thursday. He isn’t usually a very efficient option on offense and needs lots of shots to get his points, but in Houston’s offense, he’s getting enough work that he’s still a valuable fantasy option. He has a 27.7% usage rate on the season and a 28.6% usage rate over his last 10 games. In those games, he produced 1.08 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute in 28.9 minutes per game.
The Rockets will need another big game from him to fly close to the Suns again on Saturday, and Green has a very high ceiling from his value salary under $7,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Fast Break
Against his former team, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a solid value play at shooting guard. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games by producing 0.81 DraftKings points and 0.81 FanDuel points per minute while logging 32.5 minutes per game. If Murray is out, KCP will be an even stronger play since he gets a usage boost of over two percentage points with Murray off the floor this season.
Dillon Brooks has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel and the third-highest at the position on DraftKings. He hasn’t been quite as active on offense since the return of Fred VanVleet to the Rockets’ backcourt, but he always gets plenty of minutes and has the potential to go off if his outside shot starts dropping.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The big story of the night will be LeBron James becoming the first player in NBA history to score 40,000 points. He’s just nine points away, so he should hit that mark relatively early in his matchup with the defending champs. The King has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward on the slate on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, behind only Kevin Durant.
Officially, James is questionable as usual, but he is expected to continue to play through his ankle injury. While he did miss a few games, the issue hasn’t seemed to slow down the ageless wonder when he is active. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games, averaging 1.48 DraftKings points and 1.42 FanDuel points per minute in 35.7 minutes per game over that span.
While he’s not a value play with his elevated salary, he will have everyone’s attention and look to reach his historic milestone in style with a big game Saturday night in Los Angeles.
Value
The Trail Blazers have been giving Toumani Camara more playing time on the wing, and the forward is showing good upside for a player priced under $5,000. Camara has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel this Saturday.
Camara had an impressive double-double with 17 points and 10 boards on Tuesday. In his 10 games since February 1, Camara has produced 0.82 DraftKings points and 0.78 FanDuel points per minute in 23.7 minutes per game. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in six of his last nine games, and he brings a high ceiling from his value salary Saturday against the Grizzlies.
Fast Break
Jerami Grant has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Like Simons, he had a slower game on Friday before sitting out the end of the blowout. Grant finished with 10 points and five assists but has a much better bounce-back projection in Saturday’s rematch.
For the Rockets, Cam Whitmore is a bargain play to consider since the 19-year-old rookie has scored at least nine points in each of his last 14 games while averaging 15.7 points in 20.3 minutes off the bench. Whitmore had 14 points and eight boards in Thursday’s loss and continues to step into a more involved role for the Rockets, who seem ready to give their first-round pick a bigger role the rest of the season.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
While Beal’s return could take a little usage from Kevin Durant, KD still has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all power forwards on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at small forward and the second-highest on power forward behind only Anthony Davis, who costs almost $2,000 more on FanDuel. On FanDuel, Durant has a 74% Bargain Rating and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
Durant has scored at least 22 points in nine straight games, producing 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.25 FanDuel points per minute while playing 37.7 minutes per game with a team-high 30.2% usage rate. With Beal on the floor this season, Durant’s usage drops to 26.4%, but he has still produced 1.24 DraftKings points and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute with Beal playing alongside him.
His consistent production makes him one of the more reliable high-priced options on Saturday’s slate, and he has better value projections than most of the other stud options in play.
Value
Aaron Gordon has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel, where he has a 69% Bargain Rating. He narrowly edges out Michael Porter Jr. for this spot due to his lower salary and consistent upside.
Gordon has been producing strong numbers lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games, with an Average Plus/Minus of +3.6 DraftKings points and +7.1 FanDuel points. He produced 1.16 DraftKings points and 1.17 FanDuel points per minute, with 20.8% usage in 29.3 minutes per game over that stretch.
Gordon exceeded salary-based expectations in both of his two matchups against the Lakers earlier this season and is a strong mid-range option at power forward Saturday.
Fast Break
If Jaren Jackson Jr. plays on Saturday after sitting on Friday, he could be one of the best plays on the board. He averaged 25.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.0 steals, and 2.3 assists in 33.3 minutes per game over his last three games, with two monster performances in which he exceeded salary-based expectations against the Clippers and Timberwolves. He has a very high ceiling and should get plenty of usage if he’s back in action on Saturday.
If JJJ is out again, Lamar Stevens and Trey Jemison will be good value considerations. Stevens had 19 points on Thursday and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games after joining the Grizzlies.
On the other side of that matchup, Jabari Walker is another strong value option. He had a big double-double with 19 points and 10 boards in just 22 minutes on Friday in the first game of the back-to-back. Walker has been a key contributor for Portland whenever Deandre Ayton (hand) has been out this season. Ayton missed Friday’s game with a sprained hand, and his status will be one of the most important ones to watch on Saturday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic brings the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the entire slate. Even though he’s an expensive option, our projections indicate he’ll also be a good value. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on DraftKings, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating. He also has the fourth-highest on FanDuel. On both sites, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center.
Jokic has scored fewer than 20 points in each of his last two games, but the Nuggets still beat both the Kings and Heat. Before those two down games, Jokic had three triple-doubles coming out of the All-Star Break against the Wizards, Warriors, and Trail Blazers. He should be poised to bounce back against the Lakers, whom he had two big games against earlier this season, averaging 26.5 points, 13 boards, 10 assists, and two blocks.
On the season, Jokic has produced impressive averages of 1.79 DraftKings points and 1.73 FanDuel points per minute. If Murray is out, Jokic would be an even better play. He averaged 1.89 DraftKings points and 1.83 FanDuel points per minute in his time with Murray off the floor. Jokic is a great centerpiece to build around on Saturday either way, but he’ll be an even better play if Murray is forced to miss the contest.
Value
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Duop Reath has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center. The 27-year-old rookie should be in an expanded role for the Blazers for as long as Ayton is sidelined.
Against the Grizz on Friday, Reath had 18 points and five boards and vastly exceeded salary-based expectations. He was making his 12th start of the season and his first since Jan. 17. Earlier in the day, Reath signed a three-year, standard NBA contract and seems to be set up for expanded work the rest of the season.
On a per-minute basis, he has been solid this season, producing 1.03 DraftKings points and 1.01 FanDuel points per minute. If he gets near his projection of 25 minutes, he should end up a great value.
Fast Break
On Thursday against Washington, Anthony Davis exploded for 40 points and 15 boards in 41 minutes. He continues to battle heel soreness but is listed as probable for Saturday’s game. Over his last 10 games, AD has produced 1.60 DraftKings points and 1.62 FanDuel points per minute. He had 32 points and nine rebounds against the Nuggets during that stretch and is a solid alternative to Jokic and LeBron as superstars to build around Saturday.
Suns center Jusuf Nurkic has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in four of his last five games with three double-doubles in his last four games. He had 16 points and 13 boards against the Rockets on Thursday and can pile up production in multiple categories when he’s at his best. This matchup should be a good one for him again on Saturday.
Aside from Reath, Bol Bol stands out as a value play, especially on DraftKings, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating. Bol had 25 points and 14 boards in a spot start in place of Nurkic against the Rockets right after the All-Star Break. On Thursday, he had seven points and four boards in 26 minutes. He has played over 24 minutes in three straight games and brings great upside for as long as he stays in such a large role.
