The NBA has four games on this Saturday night slate, and seven of the eight teams scheduled to be in action are finishing off a back-to-back. Of the teams taking the floor, only the Bucks were off Friday. None of these teams are scheduled to play Sunday, though, as part of the nine-game schedule to finish the weekend.
With so many teams on back-to-backs, it’s especially important to keep a close eye on injury reports as we lead up to tip off. Be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
After a brief blip following the NBA In-Season Tournament, Tyrese Haliburton has the Pacers rolling again. They host the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics on Saturday night in the game with the highest over/under on the slate. In that favorable environment, Haliburton has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, he also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and a 96% Bargain Rating.
Haliburton only had to play 25 minutes in Friday’s rout of the Hawks but still exceeded salary-based expectations for the seventh straight game. In those seven games, he has produced 1.76 DraftKings points and 1.71 FanDuel points per minute while averaging 35.0 minutes per game. He posted a pair of 20-assist games during that span while averaging 24.6 points and 15.4 assists per game.
The Pacers knocked off the Celtics in the quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament, and Haliburton had a triple-double of 26 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds in that big win. He’s got the Pacers stampeding through the best teams in the East, and he should be able to put together another strong game on Saturday. Especially on DraftKings at under $10,000, Haliburton is a great cornerstone to build around Saturday night.
Value
Jalen Brunson is another star guard who has his team rolling right now. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he and the Knicks have a great matchup against the Wizards in Washington to close out their back-to-back.
Brunson and the Knicks cruised past the Sixers in Philly on Friday, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in six of his last seven games. Over that span, Brunson has averaged 29.4 points in 37.1 minutes per game with a 29.7% usage rate. He has produced 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute over that span and should be in a smash spot on Saturday night.
In his one game against the Wizards earlier this season, he dropped 32 points, seven assists and seven rebounds. He has a similar ceiling Saturday, and his ceiling projection is the second-best of all point guards behind only Haliburton’s. If you can’t quite pay up for Haliburton, Brunson is a strong alternative and projects as a slightly better value.
Fast Break
Even with the return of Joel Embiid in the last two games, Tyrese Maxey has remained very productive. He finished with 27 points and nine assists in 36 minutes on Friday night. If Tobias Harris (ankle) and De’Anthony Melton (back) are unable to play, there will be even more minutes and usage for Maxey. With Harris off the floor this season, Maxey has a 39.8% usage rate, which is a huge jump from his season average of 27.4%. He has produced 1.40 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points per minute with Harris off the floor, so he makes a great play if that’s the situation Saturday.
The Celtics have the top implied team total on the board, so Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are worth a look. White has the better Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He had exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games before playing limited minutes in the Celtics’ Friday night romp past the Jazz.
If you need to go with a bargain point guard, Jazz veteran Kris Dunn stands out as a solid play. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in four straight games off the bench for Utah. In his last eight games, he has averaged 23.0 minutes per game and produced 1.07 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Bucks let Khris Middleton play in the second game of a back-to-back for the first time this season on Thursday, although they did sit him down for the second half. Still, it’s another sign that Middleton is getting back to full strength. His numbers show that as well, as he has found a nice rhythm over the past couple of weeks. He has a top-four ceiling projection at both shooting guard and small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Saturday’s matchup with the Rockets.
Before his limited minutes Thursday, Middleton had exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in five straight games and scored at least 19 points in five of his last six. He has produced 1.18 DraftKings points and 1.14 FanDuel points per minute on the season and has increased those numbers to 1.30 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over his last six games dating back to Christmas Day.
He and the Bucks visit Houston on Saturday as the only team not on a back-to-back. Middleton is an especially attractive play on FanDuel, where he has an 88% Bargain Rating.
Value
On the other side of that matchup in Texas, Rockets guard Jalen Green has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s a pace-up spot for the Rockets against the Bucks, and they’ll be looking to bounce back after losing Friday to the Timberwolves.
Green had 20 points on Friday in that loss and has scored at least 20 points in four of his last five games, producing 1.18 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute.
He has a 27.2% usage rate on the season and a 29.3% usage rate over his last five games. Green typically gets plenty of shots, which gives him a very high ceiling from his mid-range salary in this matchup on Saturday.
Fast Break
Jordan Clarkson managed only a disappointing two points on Friday night against the Celtics while shooting just 1-of-7 from the field in 17 minutes as the game turned into a blowout. He should be able to bounce back against the Sixers after exceeding salary-based expectations in four of his previous six games and producing 1.33 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute. He has a high ceiling for his salary, especially on DraftKings where he has a 92% Bargain Rating.
Donte DiVincenzo has started the last 14 games for the Knicks but has kicked things into another gear over his last four games since the trade that sent R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to the Raptors. He had 38 points to start that stretch and has scored double-digit points in each of the four games while producing 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.25 FanDuel points per minute. He only played 17 minutes against the Sixers in the Knicks’ blowout win on Friday but still had 14 points and solid supporting stats.
Since the Knicks have the highest pace differential on the board, Quentin Grimes is also worth a look as a cheap option at shooting guard. Grimes has been coming off the bench since DiVincenzo took his spot in the lineup, but he has had a few good games to start 2024. He had 19 points and eight rebounds on Friday as an elite bargain play, and he could end up with a significant role against the Wizards depending on how the game plays out. He has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward on DraftKings
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum is the top stud to consider on this slate at small forward, and his salary is almost $2,000 more than any of the other options. He has the top ceiling, median, and floor projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well.
Tatum has scored at least 25 points in six straight games and only needed 25 minutes to post 30 points, nine rebounds and five assists against the Jazz on Friday. He had a 30-point double-double in Oklahoma City to start 2024 and dished out 10 assists in a double-double against the Pistons just after Christmas. On the season, he is producing 1.33 DraftKings points and 1.25 FanDuel points per minute, but over his last six games, he has elevated those numbers to 1.50 DraftKings points and 1.47 FanDuel points per minute.
In what should be a great game environment, Tatum is an excellent forward to build around, especially without many elite small forward options on the board.
Value
New Knick OG Anunoby has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel and also ranks in the top five at the position on DraftKings.
He has scored at least 11 points and has played at least 34 minutes in each of his three games with his new squad. Anunoby has just a 14.3% usage rate, but his elevated minutes help compensate for his lack of shots. He also typically contributes in multiple categories, which makes him a high-floor value option in this great environment against the Wizards.
Fast Break
Also in that great matchup, Josh Hart brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on DraftKings, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating. He produced a nice 10-point, 15-rebound double-double on Friday and has double-digit rebounds in three of his last four contests. Hart has a larger role after the trade and makes a nice bargain play on DraftKings.
On the other side of that matchup, first-round pick Bilal Coulibaly has been getting more minutes. He played over 32 minutes in each of his last two games and exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in both of those games. If he gets regular minutes, he has a high ceiling, and the Wizards may let the youngster learn on the job as they play out the rest of their disappointing season.
Aaron Nesmith left Friday’s game with an ankle sprain, and if he’s sidelined on Saturday, Bennedict Mathurin could get extra run. Mathurin has scored at least 15 points in five straight games, producing 1.06 DraftKings points and 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over that stretch.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
As the Bucks visit the Rockets, Giannis Antetokoumpo has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the entire slate behind only Joel Embiid (discussed below). He has the top marks across the board at power forward and brings a truly elite ceiling.
Giannis has been awesome all season, producing 1.69 DraftKings points and 1.65 FanDuel points per minute, but he’s been even better lately. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight straight games on FanDuel and seven of those eight contests on DraftKings. During those eight games, he has produced 1.79 DraftKings points and 1.78 FanDuel points per minute.
Antetokounmpo also has nine double-doubles in his last 10 games along with two triple-doubles and five games with at least 30 points in his six most recent contests. He had 44 points in his most recent game on Thursday against the Spurs and is a good way to avoid any issues from all the back-to-backs on Saturday.
Value
John Collins has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards priced under $6,000 on FanDuel, and he’s even cheaper on DraftKings, where he has a 77% Bargain Rating with his salary of just $4,800.
Collins played just 22 minutes on Friday in Boston but posted his first double-double in almost a month, with 12 points and 11 boards. He has scored double-digit points in four straight and seems to be returning to form after missing four games due to illness in mid-December. In his last five games, he has produced 1.14 DraftKings points and 0.99 FanDuel points per minute.
On Saturday, he’s projected for 23.9 minutes against Philly and should represent good value with a high ceiling as long as the game stays competitive. He could get an easier matchup if Tobias Harris is sidelined as well.
Fast Break
In the Knicks’ pace-up spot against the Wizards, Julius Randle has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He had a down game on Friday in reduced minutes due to the game situation but had reeled off 24 points in nine straight games before that. He had 22 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds in his matchup against Washington earlier this season.
On the other side of that matchup, Deni Avdija has a high ceiling but has struggled with consistency. He has scored 12+ points in four of his last five games with a pair of excellent double-doubles in those contests.
If Harris is out and Robert Covington (knee) remains sidelined, Marcus Morris Sr. and Nicolas Batum will likely get most of the work at power forward. Those veterans don’t usually get a ton of usage, but they can chip in solid enough production to be bargain options.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
On the second night of a back-to-back, Joel Embiid is a name to watch closely since the Sixers may try and get him a break. However, after Friday’s game, coach Nick Nurse said he expects Embiid to play.
He played 36 minutes on Friday despite the Sixers losing big to the Knicks and finished with 30 points and 10 rebounds. Even though those numbers were solid, he fell short of salary-based expectations for the first time in 15 games. In those 15 contests, he produced an incredible 2.03 DraftKings points and 1.98 FanDuel points per minute. He averaged 34.0 minutes per game and had a 40.7% usage rate during that stretch.
If he’s a full go on Saturday, he’ll be in a smash spot against the Jazz. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel and on the entire slate on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating. Embiid also brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He matches 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 10 on DraftKings.
Value
The Rockets have been getting great work from Alperen Sengun over the last few weeks. The second-year player has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the third-highest at center on DraftKings.
Sengun struggled Friday night with 19 points in 33 minutes, but before that, he had posted at least 24 points in six straight games while producing 1.59 DraftKings points and 1.60 FanDuel points per minute. Sengun doesn’t have the ceiling that Embiid brings, but he comes much cheaper and can work as an alternative if you need a salary to spend at other spots.
Fast Break
On DraftKings, Isaiah Hartenstein has a 98% Bargain Rating and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus. His salary is under $6,000 on that site but over $7,500 on FanDuel. Hartenstein had 17 points on Friday after posting a nice 10-point, 20-rebound double-double against the Bulls on Wednesday. With Mitchell Robinson (ankle) done for the year, Hartenstein should continue to play plenty of minutes in the middle.
Before last night’s limited minutes in Boston, Walker Kessler was rounding into form for the Jazz. He has a tough matchup against Embiid and the Sixers but should be solid mid-range play if he can avoid foul trouble.
The Pacers have been starting Jalen Smith for the last five games, and he has scored double-digit points in five of his last seven games since returning from a heel injury. In those seven games, he averaged 1.06 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute while averaging 19.4 minutes per contest.
