Saturday night, the NBA has seven games on the main DFS schedule. Both DraftKings and FanDuel omit the late game between the Lakers and Jazz, including all the games that start between 7:00 p.m. ET and 8:30 p.m. ET. With 14 teams in play, there are still plenty of options in the player pool. Eight of the 14 teams are on the second night of a back-to-back set, and the Bucks are the only team in action Saturday that has to turn around and play again on Sunday.
With so many back-to-back sets and several key injuries, be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
After a disappointing performance on Friday in a loss to the Pacers, Trae Young and the Hawks are in a good bounce-back spot against the Wizards on Saturday night. Young has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel and DraftKings and ranks in the top five on the entire slate.
He also matches 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, tied for the most on the slate, and 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a 77% Bargain Rating.
The Hawks have the highest implied team total on the slate since the Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA and have the worst defensive rating in the NBA. The Hawks play fast too, so there should be plenty of points scored in this contest.
Trae has had a few down games early in 2024, but over the last month, he has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points and 1.33 FanDuel points per game over 15 contests. He had 28 points and 11 assists in a strong showing on Wednesday, and he’ll look to get back in that groove in this favorable spot against Washington. He lit them up for 40 points and 13 assists on New Year’s Eve in their most recent meeting.
Value
On the other side of that up-tempo matchup, Tyus Jones ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel at point guard and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings under $7,000.
The Wizards have struggled in Jones’ first year in Washington, but he has produced 1.00 DraftKings point and 1.00 FanDuel point per minute while averaging 27.9 minutes per game. He has just a 17.0% usage but also brings a team-high 26.3% assist rate.
Over the last month, Jones has increased his production with 1.1 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute. He doesn’t have an incredibly high ceiling since he’s more of a creator than a scorer in his current role, but he has been consistent enough to be a strong value play from the midrange while allowing you to pay up for stars in other spots.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest median and ceiling projections at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel, ranking second in those projections on the entire slate behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo. SGA has had a quieter week but still has huge upside if the Magic can keep the game competitive. He’s averaging 1.62 DraftKings points and 1.62 FanDuel points per minute over the last month in 34.0 minutes per game.
One of the key injury situations to monitor is the availability of Desmond Bane (ankle). Bane left Friday’s game with a sprained ankle and could join Marcus Smart (finger) and Ja Morant (shoulder) on the sideline. If he does, the Grizzlies will be extremely thin at point guard and Jacob Gilyard will have to step into a larger role while there will be usage available all across the roster.
Another key injury that we already have clarity on is that the Mavs will be without Luka Doncic (ankle) again on Saturday night for the second straight game. Without Doncic and his massive 36.7% usage rate, the rest of the Mavs will have to again step up. As a result, Jaden Hardy has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on DraftKings, where he has an 84% Bargain Rating.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The biggest beneficiary of Luka’s absence will again be Mavs’ star Kyrie Irving. Irving carried the team to a four-point win against the Knicks on Thursday with 44 points and 10 assists. On Saturday, he has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards by a wide margin and ranks in the top four at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Projected Plus/Minus.
In his six games since returning from injury, Irving has exceeded salary-based expectations five times on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has averaged 1.59 DraftKings points and 1.57 FanDuel points per minute over that span. With Luka off the floor in those games, his production has jumped to 1.68 DraftKings points and 1.63 FanDuel points per minute.
Kyrie and the Mavs host the Pelicans on Saturday, and he brings a 31.5% usage projection and a 33.9 minute projection. He should be one of the top stars to build around in another game with an increased workload.
Value
The Grizzlies are even more decimated by injury than Dallas, and Luke Kennard is a strong value play as an option who can help pick up some of the scoring slack. Kennard has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel, where he also brings added small forward eligibility.
Kennard has had back-to-back strong games and exceeded salary-based expectations while picking up added work. On the year, he has been limited to 15 games and has produced 0.86 DraftKings points and 0.86 FanDuel points per minute. He has a 15.5% usage rate overall, but that number jumps to 20.7% with Bane, Morant, and Smart off the floor.
Over the last two weeks since returning from injury, Kennard has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points and 0.86 FanDuel points per minute.
Fast Break
After his extended absence due to a foot injury, Zach LaVine has found his form with back-to-back games of at least 25 points. The Bulls visit the Spurs with both teams playing for the second night in a row, but if he’s available for his usual workload, he should be in a good pace-up matchup in San Antonio.
As a strong mid-range play, Jalen Green ranks in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. His Rockets are in Boston as they continue their road trip, and Green is coming off back-to-back strong games in Chicago and Detroit. On Friday, he had 28 points against the Pistons, and he could be lined up for more work depending on whom Houston has available in the second game of their back-to-back.
Donte DiVincenzo continues to be a good value in his expanded role for the Knicks. As bargain plays, Julian Champagnie could get more work for the Spurs, and Amen Thompson could get more work for the Rockets depending on whom each team has available.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Whenever the Bulls head to San Antonio, DeMar DeRozan gets an extra boost against his former squad. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the sixth-highest at the position on FanDuel. He also has a top-six ceiling projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
DeRozan doesn’t have to carry as much of the load with LaVine and Nikola Vucevic back in the rotation, but he has been able to exceed salary-based expectations in three of his last five games. In those five games, he has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points and 1.01 FanDuel points per minute and averaged 40.6 minutes with a 22.9% usage rate.
On Friday against the Warriors, DeRozan had one of his best games of the season, finishing with 39 points, seven rebounds and five assists in 41 minutes. He is playing huge minutes for the Bulls, and he should be ready for a monster game if he’s ready to play on the second night of the back-to-back.
Value
The highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel on Saturday belongs to Tim Hardaway Jr. THJ gets a huge 7.6 percentage point usage boost with Doncic off the floor and produces 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute in that situation.
On Thursday without Doncic, Hardaway racked up 32 points to go with six rebounds and four assists. He vastly exceeded salary-based expectations and is projected to repeat that production in what should be a favorable game situation for him against the Pelicans.
Hardaway is the top value play on the board and can fit in almost any roster construction since he is eligible at both shooting guard and small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Fast Break
Jalen Williams has continued to emerge as one of the Thunder’s top offensive options over the last few weeks. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games. During that run, he has produced 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute. He has scored at least 19 points in five straight games and has been adding solid numbers in rebounds and assists.
The Bucks have been getting Khris Middleton ramped up to close to full strength over the last few weeks. He was very quiet in Thursday’s win over Boston but has proven that he can contribute in multiple categories as his usage climbs. He’s a reliable mid-range play vs. the Warriors.
If you need a bargain at small forward, Corey Kispert and Bilal Coulibaly are cheap options to consider from the Wizards. They have the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $5,000 on DraftKings and at FanDuel, and they rank just behind Andrew Wiggins in that price bracket.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
As usual, when the Bucks are in action, Giannis Antetokounmpo has the top ceiling and median projection on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Giannis also has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on FanDuel and is in the top 10 on DraftKings.
Since the Bucks blew away the Celtics on Thursday, Giannis only had to play 26 minutes but still finished with 24 points, 12 boards, and six assists. He has put up 1.86 DraftKings points and 1.78 FanDuel points per minute over his last eight games, averaging 35.1 minutes per game with a 32.5% usage rate. Giannis has posted at least a double-double in nine straight games with a pair of triple-doubles during that run as well.
The Bucks and Warriors have the second-highest plus/minus on the board Saturday night, and the Bucks have the second-highest implied team total on the board.
Value
One great way to get exposure to the Hawks-Wizards matchup is to target Jalen Johnson at one of your forward spots. Johnson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. He also has a top-five ceiling and median projection on both sites despite his salary which is barely in the top 10.
Like all the Hawks, he struggled Friday against the Pacers, but before that, Johnson had exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in five of his seven games since returning from injury. In those seven games, he averaged 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.19 FanDuel points per minute with a 19.0% usage rate.
This should be an excellent matchup for him to bounce back with a strong game, and he and Trae Young can be a solid stack to build around against the defensively-challenged Wizards.
Fast Break
Paolo Banchero has continued to post big numbers for the Magic while Franz Wagner (ankle) is sidelined. With Wagner off the floor this season, Banchero has produced 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.23 FanDuel points per minute. Since Christmas, he has averaged 51.5 DraftKings points and 49.5 FanDuel points per game. He’ll need to bring his A-game on Saturday to help Orlando keep pace with OKC.
Before only playing 16 minutes in Thursday’s blowout loss to the Bucks, Jayson Tatum had exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games. He and the Celtics have been outstanding at home, and they’ll have a good matchup against the Rockets in coach Ime Udoka’s return to Boston. Tatum is another star you can build around at power forward.
The Warriors have been getting good minutes from Dario Saric, who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. Saric has scored double-digit points in four of his last five games and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those four contests. He is a very strong option at either power forward or center with his salary under $5,000.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
With the Spurs expecting to rest Victor Wembanyama on the second night of their back-to-back, it should be a good spot for Nikola Vucevic to continue his strong return to the Bulls. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He also has the fourth-highest ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel.
Since returning from his five-game absence, Vucevic has regained his starting role and exceeded salary-based expectations in two of his last three games. He had an impressive 18-point, 15-rebound double-double against the Rockets on Wednesday, and he should be able to have a similar or even better stat line on Saturday if he is able to play his regular minutes against the short-handed Spurs.
Value
With Wendell Carter Jr. (knee) still sidelined, Moritz Wagner will continue to play an increased role for the Magic. His ceiling isn’t nearly as high as his younger brother’s when Franz is healthy, but Mo has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games with 15+ points in each contest.
On Saturday, Wagner has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel and the fifth-highest at the position on DraftKings. In his last five contests, he has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute while playing 24.4 minutes per game. He’s a very solid mid-range option for as long as WCJ is sidelined, and he continues to fill in minutes in the middle.
Fast Break
The Rockets have been getting good production from third-year center Alperen Sengun, who is still just 21 years old and establishing himself as one of the young, exciting rising stars at center. He has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points and 1.35 FanDuel points per minute over the last month while leading the team with a 29.6% usage rate.
With his team so banged up, Jaren Jackson Jr. will have to step up for the Grizzlies. While he is not the best at creating his own shot, he should get all the usage he can handle against the Knicks. Jackson exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games on DraftKings and four of his last five on FanDuel, where he has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate at center.
In addition to Saric and Wagner, Dominick Barlow and Sandro Mamukelashvili project to be good values as they fill in for Wemby. Barlow could slide into the starting lineup with Mamu as his primary backup. Mamadi Diakite could even get some run off the bench to help fill in against the Bulls. They don’t have high ceilings, but all three could end up as top value options.
