There are six games on the NBA schedule this Saturday with two afternoon contests followed by four on the main slate for DFS on FanDuel and DraftKings. In this post, we’ll focus on those four games that start at 7:00 p.m. ET or later. Of the eight teams in the player pool, two are finishing tough road back-to-backs, as the Knicks and Sixers visit the Pacers and Bulls, respectively. The Lakers are the only team playing on Saturday night that plays again on Sunday.
As usually is the case at this point in the season, there are a few important injuries that could impact rotations and player usage on this slate. Be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Pacers have the highest implied team total on Saturday’s slate, and their matchup with the Knicks has the highest over/under. Tyrese Haliburton has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate and the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive but still has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus. If Luka Doncic (quadriceps, questionable) plays, he’ll probably rank ahead of Haliburton in some of those categories, but with his status uncertain, Haliburton stands out as the best play on the board.
Haliburton cooled off a little bit after his impressive In-Season Tournament run, but he has turned things back around with masterful performances in his last three games to outproduce salary-based expectations. On Thursday against the Bulls, Haliburton had 20 assists to go with 21 points. That was his fifth straight double-double and his first career 20-assist performance. The accomplishment was even more impressive since he did not have a single turnover.
On the season, Haliburton has averaged 1.55 DraftKings points and 1.47 FanDuel points per minute. He’s a great play to build around on Saturday, especially on DraftKings where he has a 92% Bargain Rating.
Value
The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid (ankle) again for their Saturday matchup, and as a result, De’Anthony Melton is a strong value option. With Embiid off the floor this season, Melton’s usage has increased 4.9 percentage points to 23.0%. He has produced 1.07 DraftKings points and 1.06 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario, and he brings a high ceiling as the Sixers roll into Chicago after getting a four-point win on Friday in Houston.
In the three games that Embiid has missed with his current injury, Melton has produced three solid games with at least 15 points in over 35 minutes in each contest.
On Saturday, he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and the second-highest at shooting guard.
Fast Break
If Luka Doncic plays against the Warriors after missing Thursday’s game, he will be a strong option to consider. He has been incredible while Kyrie Irving (heel) has been sidelined, and he has averaged 1.84 DraftKings points and 1.67 FanDuel points per minute in his 12 games this month. If available, he’s always an elite pay-up play.
Without Embiid, Tyrese Maxey has also had to shoulder the load for the Sixers. He had a surprisingly quiet game on Christmas and fared only a little better on Wednesday. On Friday, he took off against the Rockets, exploding for 42 points and easily exceeding salary-based expectations. With Embiid off the floor this season, he has a 33.0% usage rate, which gives him a very high ceiling.
The Pacers will be without Bruce Brown (knee) for a fourth straight game, so Andrew Nembhard will likely get another start. In his three games in the starting lineup in place of Brown, Nembhard has averaged 21.67 DraftKings points and 20.2 FanDuel points per game with an 18.3% usage rate. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards under $6,000 on FanDuel and projects as a solid value play on DraftKings as well.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Anthony Edwards has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all shooting guards on the slate and also ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Edwards has led the Timberwolves to an impressive 23-7 start to the season that has them atop the Western Conference standings coming into Saturday night’s home game against the Lakers.
Edwards has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute on the season and has been heating up lately with 1.44 DraftKings points and 1.40 FanDuel points per minute over his last seven games. He exceeded salary-based expectations in five of those seven games on both DraftKings and FanDuel while scoring at least 25 points in each contest. He is coming off a massive 44-point game against Dallas on Thursday and had a strong stat line with 27 points when the Timberwolves beat the Lakers nine days ago.
On Saturday, Edwards matches 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
The Warriors made the move to go with rookie Brandin Podziemski in their starting lineup eight games ago, and he has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute while playing 29.9 minutes per game in his new role.
On Saturday, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, he is also eligible at point guard, where he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus, and on FanDuel, he’s also eligible at small forward, where he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus. Wherever he fits in your roster construction, he is poised to return good value against the Mavericks.
Podziemski only has a 17.1% usage rate in his time in the starting lineup, but he has contributed in multiple categories with at least five assists in six of his last seven games, at least five rebounds in six of those seven games, and double-digit points in six of those contests as well. His multi-category production gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor on Saturday vs. Dallas.
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr. had 32 points on Thursday against the Mavericks with Luka sidelined. He will be asked to step into a bigger role again if Doncic is out, and even if Luka plays, there should still be enough usage for him to return value for as long as Kyrie remains sidelined. Hardaway can be a little boom-or-bust, but he has at least 14 points in six straight games.
Depending on how the game script plays out in Indiana, Immanuel Quickley could be one of the best values on the board. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on DraftKings, where he has an 84% Bargain Rating. Coming off the bench for the Knicks has led to boom-or-bust results, but he has scored at least 19 points in four of his last six contests.
With no Zach LaVine (foot) and Nikola Vucevic (groin), the Bulls are again a good source of value plays. Alex Caruso has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games on FanDuel and four of those contests on DraftKings. During that span, he has produced a solid 0.88 DraftKings points and 0.88 FanDuel points per minute in 28.3 minutes per game.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
DeMar DeRozan has been a fixture in my picks this past week, as he helps carry the load without LaVine and Vucevic. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward and the second-highest on the entire slate on FanDuel, where he matches 11 Pro Trends. On DraftKings, he’s not quite as much of a value play, but he still makes a ton of sense and has power forward eligibility.
In his 13 December games, he averaged 38.6 minutes with a 25.7% usage rate. In those games, he produced 1.12 DraftKings points and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute. He has scored 20+ points in five straight games and in 11 of 13 games this month.
The Bulls have the best pace differential on the slate, making DeRozan a strong option once again.
Value
With the Pacers in a good spot against the Knicks, Aaron Nesmith is a solid value play. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings, where he has an 87% Bargain Rating and a salary under $5,000. He was promoted into the starting lineup two games ago and has played over 30 minutes with good numbers in both starts.
Nesmith has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games on both DraftKings and FanDuel and has played over 26 minutes in six of those seven games. Over those seven contests, Nesmith has produced 0.92 DraftKings points and 0.93 FanDuel points per minute while averaging 27.9 minutes per game. Nesmith has scored double-digit points in 10 of his last 11 games and is a strong mid-range play on this slate.
Fast Break
With Embiid out, Tobias Harris has been surging. While his salary has spiked, he still projects to be a solid value against the Bulls. Harris has 22+ points in four straight games, averaging 1.30 DraftKings points and 1.30 FanDuel points per minute in 36.75 minutes per game. On the season, he has a 24.1% usage rate with Embiid off the floor and is projected for 23.8% usage on Saturday.
Andrew Wiggins has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the fourth-highest at the position on FanDuel. He’s also in the top three on both sites at power forward in projected Plus/Minus. He followed up his 22 points on Christmas with 11 on Thursday against the Heat, so there are signs he is breaking out of his season-long slump.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
On Friday, Julius Randle had a huge game for the Knicks against the Magic, finishing with 38 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists to vastly exceed salary-based expectations. He’s projected for another big game on Saturday since the Knicks will be in a pace-up spot against the Pacers. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. He also has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel.
Randle has scored at least 20 points in 16 straight games, producing 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute in 36.1 minutes per game. He should continue to get a heavy workload from coach Tom Thibodeau and post another good stat line on Saturday.
Value
The Pacers also added Jalen Smith to their starting lineup for their last two games, and he has been a solid contributor while playing alongside Myles Turner. Smith has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both power forward and center on DraftKings, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel, where he is only eligible at center.
Smith missed almost a month with a heel bruise, but in his four games since returning, he has produced 1.24 DraftKings points and 1.19 FanDuel points per minute. He has scored double-digit points in each of those four games and is coming off 15 points and seven rebounds in the Pacers’ win on Thursday.
At his affordable salary, Smith is one of the keys to unlocking Saturday’s slate.
Fast Break
With the Knicks in such a good pace-up spot, R.J. Barrett deserves a look as well. He has been boom-or-bust most of the season and has fallen below expectations for the most part. However, he has put together a few strong games over the last week. He had 21 points on Christmas Day and 19 points on Friday to exceed salary-based expectations in two of his last three games.
For the Mavericks, Derrick Jones Jr. has emerged as a key part of their rotation. The veteran forward has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points and 0.82 FanDuel points per minute on the season and has played over 30 minutes in three straight games. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games and is a solid value play with or without Luka in the lineup.
If you choose to go cheap at power forward, Jarred Vanderbilt is starting to find his footing after a late start to the season for the Lakers. He’s coming off his first game with over 24 minutes this season, and in that win over Charlotte, he had a season-high seven points go to with good non-scoring numbers across the board. He doesn’t usually get high usage but does contribute in multiple categories. He’ll be a good bargain if he gets close to 25 minutes again on Saturday in this matchup against his former team in Minnesota.
NNBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Anthony Davis (ankle) and LeBron James (knee) continue to be regularly listed as questionable, but they almost always play through their injuries. Davis has the highest ceiling projection at power forward and center on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been the focus of the Lakers’ offense for most of the season and has impressively averaged 1.49 DraftKings points and 1.53 FanDuel points per minute with a 27.7% usage rate.
Davis had 31 points and eight rebounds against Minnesota earlier this month, and that was one of his 11 games in his last 12 on FanDuel in which he exceeded salary-based expectations. After exploding for 40 points and 13 rebounds against the Celtics on Christmas, he had a calmer 26 points and eight boards against the Hornets on Thursday, but he only had to play 26 minutes in the rout. Since this game should be more competitive, he will probably play closer to his 35.4 minutes per game average.
If you have the salary to spend up at center, Davis stands out as the top option on this four-game slate due to his consistency and his high ceiling.
Value
With Embiid out, Paul Reed moved into the lineup but has posted mixed results. On Wednesday in Orlando, he had a strong showing with 15 points and 10 boards in 31 minutes. He struggled with foul trouble on Christmas against Miami and was also relatively quiet Friday against the Rockets. He only played 24 minutes, but his seven points and two rebounds were still underwhelming.
This matchup is more favorable for Reed, especially with Vucevic sidelined for Chicago. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel and projects to play 25 minutes in this contest. On the season, he has produced 1.00 DraftKings point and 1.03 FanDuel points per minute, and he will continue to bring the potential of a high ceiling for as long as he’s playing in place of Embiid.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond has started the last two games for the Bulls with Vucevic out. He showed his ceiling with a 24-point, 25-rebound game against the Hawks on Tuesday. However, he then showed his lack of reliability, with only seven points to go with 16 boards against the Pacers on Thursday. His salary skyrocketed after his big game, so he isn’t much of a value in this spot against the Sixers. He does bring that very high ceiling though, which makes him worth a look.
Isaiah Hartenstein continues to play big minutes in the middle for the Knicks, but his totals from the last couple of games haven’t quite been up to salary-based expectations. This good matchup could help him turn things around.
If you have to go cheap at center, Kevon Looney and Dario Saric project to be the top bargain plays at the position, as they continue to fill in for the suspended Draymond Green.
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