The NBA has 10 games on the schedule for this busy sports Saturday, and nine of those games are on the main DFS fantasy basketball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The Bucks-Pistons matchup is left off the main slate since it starts before the 7:00 p.m. ET lock time.
Of the 18 teams on the main slate, five are playing the second half of back-to-backs, so keep a close eye on the availability of the Hawks, Hornets, Pacers, Knicks and Sixers. The Warriors and Blazers are the only two teams on the slate that have another game scheduled tomorrow. As always at this time of year, there are several key injuries to monitor leading up to tip off, so be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and keep an eye on the news hub.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
There are several superstars in smash spots on Saturday, and Luka Doncic leads the way as the Mavs visit Portland to take on the Blazers. Doncic has the highest median and ceiling projection of any player on the entire slate, and he is worth considering as a cornerstone for your lineup even though his salary is over $12,000.
With Kyrie Irving (heel) sidelined, Doncic has been putting up insane numbers. He scored at least 30 points in nine straight games with four double-doubles and two triple-doubles. He averaged 1.70 DraftKings points and 1.61 FanDuel points per minute over those nine games with a 36.5% usage rate and 40.0 minutes per game. Despite always being extremely expensive, Doncic has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Doncic and the Mavs already beat the Trail Blazers once this month with Luka delivering 32 points, 10 assists and six rebounds in 41 minutes. He’s projected for 37.0% usage and 39.0 minutes in the rematch, so this should be another matchup and situation set up for Luka to thrive.
Value
The Warriors started rookie Brandin Podziemski on Thursday for the first time this season. He struggled shooting but still played 34.5 minutes with a 17.5% usage rate. With his first-start jitters out of the way, he looks lined up for a better performance on Saturday when the Warriors host the Nets.
He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and the third-highest at shooting guard on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he ranks in the top seven in Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward.
With Draymond Green (suspension) out and Andrew Wiggins struggling, the Warriors appear ready to give more minutes to their young players. While his first start didn’t go quite as well as he would have liked, the fact that he played so many minutes and got 11 shots shows he has plenty of potential for big games going forward.
Podz has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in five of his last six games and has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.91 FanDuel points per minute while averaging 29.0 minutes per game. With so much more work in the starting lineup, he should be poised to deliver great value wherever he fits in Saturday’s lineups.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a very good high-cost alternative to Doncic and one of the few players in the NBA that can match his production. He had 43 points, nine assists and six rebounds in a huge game on Thursday and has at least 30 points in eight of his last nine games. In those nine games, he has produced 1.57 DraftKings points and 1.64 FanDuel points per minute. SGA’s Thunder visit the Nuggets in one of the most interesting matchups of the night.
As a mid-range play, Malik Monk continues to produce very good numbers off the bench for the Kings. He has double-digit points in nine of his last 10 games while averaging 1.05 DraftKings points and 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. Monk has played the fourth-most minutes on the team over that span, so coming off the bench doesn’t limit his involvement very much. He and the Kings have a juicy matchup against the Jazz, who have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to shooting guards this season. De’Aaron Fox (shoulder) is questionable, and if he’s out or limited, Monk’s potential production is even higher.
On the other side of that game in Sacramento, the Jazz backcourt offers good value since Jordan Clarkson (bicep) and Keyonte George (foot) are sidelined. Kris Dunn played 26 minutes without those two players on Thursday and had six points and five assists. He has been in a much bigger role in his last four games since returning from a personal absence, averaging 0.96 DraftKings points and 0.95 FanDuel points per minute. Dunn has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of point guards on FanDuel and the fifth-highest on DraftKings.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Cavs had a rough Friday even though they didn’t play. News broke that both Darius Garland (jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee) will miss extended time. The Cavs will have to rely heavily on Donovan Mitchell to carry their offense. Without Mobley and Garland on the floor, Spida has a 32.9% usage rate and has produced 1.39 DraftKings points and 1.38 FanDuel points per minute. In the four games Mitchell started without Garland, he was even better, producing 1.44 DraftKings and 1.41 FanDuel points per minute.
In their home game against the Hawks on Saturday, the Cavaliers are still favored and have the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate according to our Vegas Dashboard. With Mitchell expected to do the heavy lifting, he has an extremely high ceiling and a high floor.
Mitchell has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel with his teammate Jarrett Allen (discussed below) close behind. Mitchell has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings at point guard behind only Luka.
Value
Jazz guard Collin Sexton has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He can fit in either guard slot on DraftKings but is just a shooting guard on FanDuel, where he has an 80% Bargain Rating. Sexton matches 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and seven on DraftKings.
Sexton has stepped up and delivered 20+ points in three straight games while the Jazz have been dealing with multiple injuries. He has played a team-high 88 minutes in those three games and has produced 1.27 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute.
With both Clarkson and George out again on Saturday, Sexton is projected for a 26.7% usage rate in 31.8 minutes against the Kings. He should be a great value option once again and brings a high ceiling as long as he is in this expanded role.
Fast Break
The Hornets continue to get good production from Terry Rozier while LaMelo Ball (ankle) is sidelined. Scary Terry has scored at least 28 points in each of his last three games after dropping 30 points to go with six assists in Friday’s narrow loss to the Pelicans. Rozier has produced 1.43 DraftKings points and 1.38 FanDuel points per minute over his last three games, and depending on whom the Hornets have available, he should be poised for a big role in their game against the 76ers.
Another key player that the Cavs will need to step up is Caris LeVert. LeVert is only $6,000 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel, but he brings a very high ceiling in what should be a much larger role. In the four games LeVert played without Garland this season, LeVert got a boost of 4.4 percentage points to his usage and produced 1.13 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute. While those games were mostly early in the season, LeVert showed he has the potential to get to that level again with 26 points on Thursday in the game in which Garland was injured. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on DraftKings as well.
If you need a cheap shooting guard play, Christian Braun is worth a look since Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (concussion) will again be sidelined for the Nuggets. Braun has scored double-digit points and played over 22 minutes in each of his last two games and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards priced under $4,900 on DraftKings.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Clippers are back in action on Saturday looking for their seventh win in a row. They won on Thursday even without Paul George (groin) who is questionable for Saturday’s game as well. Their recent surge has been powered by strong production by Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, who have both been excellent fantasy plays lately. Kawhi has scored at least 27 points in four straight games and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those games. His salary did jump for this slate, but he brings a high enough ceiling to still be a good play, especially if PG13 misses another game.
In his last nine games, Kahwi has a team-high 26.5% usage rate and has exceeded salary-based expectations seven times on DraftKings and FanDuel. He has produced 1.27 DraftKings points and 1.26 FanDuel points per minute and has played a team-high 37.1 minutes per game, including all the team’s back-to-backs.
Kawhi is in the top three in ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel at small forward. He has the versatility to move to power forward on both sites as well.
Value
While both Mitchell and LeVert will have to step up in the backcourt for the Cavs, there will still be plenty of work available on the wing. With Garland and Mobley off the floor, the biggest usage bump on the team goes to Max Strus, whose usage rate climbs 7.3 percentage points to 24.7%. In that scenario, Strus has produced 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.86 FanDuel points per minute.
Strus has started all 25 games for the Cavs this season and played a team-high 863 total minutes. His 34.5 minutes per game have resulted in solid averages across the board, and he has also shown he can go off for big games when given more usage. Throughout his career, Strus has been a streaky shooter with a high ceiling, and the Cavs will need him to step up on a regular basis to get them through the next few weeks.
On Saturday against Atlanta, Strus has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on FanDuel and the third-highest of all shooting guards. On DraftKings, Strus is slightly more expensive but still brings the third-highest Projected Plus Minus at small forward.
Fast Break
The Bulls beat the Heat in Miami on Thursday even though DeMar DeRozan fell below salary-based expectations. With Zach LaVine (foot) out, he has been carrying a heavy workload. Over his six games this month, DeRozan has averaged 39.0 minutes per game and produced 1.14 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute. He leads the team with a 28.0% usage rate over that span and should be able to put up better numbers in Saturday’s rematch of these two teams at South Beach.
While Kyrie Irving (heel) has been sidelined, Dante Exum has emerged as a key contributor for the Mavericks. He is eligible at small forward and point guard on DraftKings and both guard spots on FanDuel. Exum has been a solid mid-range value in his last five games, averaging 1.09 DraftKings points and 1.06 FanDuel points per minute and playing 31.4 minutes per game. He has played the second-most minutes on the team over that span and should get more work on Saturday, especially if Seth Curry (illness, questionable) misses another game.
Jaden McDaniels returned from his eight-game absence last Thursday and has scored double-digit points in each game since returning while playing over 23 minutes each game for the Timberwolves. McDaniels has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards under $5,000 on DraftKings and the fourth-highest in that bracket on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Knicks continue their West Coast trip with a stop in Sacramento on Saturday night after getting a huge game from Jalen Brunson to beat the Suns on Friday. Julius Randle projects as a top play at power forward with the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at the position on DraftKings. Randle has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his last eight games with an Average Plus/Minus of +10.14 FanDuel points and +7.1 DraftKings points over that span.
Randle has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points and 1.34 FanDuel points per minute over those eight games by producing 28.0 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game over that stretch.
He also matches 10 Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel and makes sense as the preferred pay-up play at power forward Saturday.
Value
Pacers big man Isaiah Jackson is only eligible at power forward on FanDuel and only eligible at center on DraftKings. Wherever he fits though, he brings strong value potential and a high ceiling as he continues to help fill in up front for the Pacers. Jackson went off with 20 points and 13 rebounds in Friday night’s loss to the Wizards, but he was starting to gain momentum before that breakthrough.
Jackson has scored at least eight points in six straight games, including the In-Season Tournament Championship. In his five games during that span in which stats counted for the regular season, he has averaged an eye-popping 1.51 DraftKings points and 1.53 FanDuel points per minute.
The Pacers might have an unusual rotation on the second night of their back-to-back, but if Jackson is lined up for minutes, he brings an extremely high ceiling from his salary of just $4,400 on DraftKings and $4,300 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The Timberwolves have the highest implied team total on the slate as they host the up-tempo Pacers, so it should be a good spot for Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns has three double-doubles in his last four games and is coming off a monster game of 21 points and 17 rebounds on Thursday against the Mavericks.
Caleb Martin has been a strong mid-range play for the Heat over his last nine games. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of those nine games on both DraftKings and FanDuel while averaging 0.98 DraftKings points and 0.92 FanDuel points per minute. He scored double-digit points in seven straight games before finishing with just nine points on Wednesday. He bounced back though with 17 points and 11 rebounds on Thursday against the Bulls, and he’s projected to have another strong game in the rematch Saturday. Martin has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings.
Grant Williams has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and should continue to get more usage with Kyrie off the floor. Without Kyrie and Josh Green (elbow), Williams typically gets more shots and plenty of minutes.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Both Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid have great matchups on Saturday. Embiid and the Sixers should smash the Hornets, while Jokic and the Nuggets host the Thunder. Jokic has the higher ceiling, median, and floor projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the higher Projected Plus/Minus on both sites and brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings.
After being ejected early on Tuesday, Jokic bounced back with a triple-double on Thursday, lighting up the Nets for 26 points, 15 assists and 10 rebounds in under 30 minutes. On the season, he’s producing an astounding 1.89 DraftKings points and 1.79 FanDuel points per minute. He has a 28.75% usage rate for the year and should be ready to carry more of the workload after his limited work on Tuesday.
He’s projected to play 34.9 minutes on Saturday night against the Thunder in what should be one of the best game environments on the board. While both superstars have high ceilings, Jokic is projected to be slightly more productive.
Value
Without Evan Mobley, the next several weeks will be Jarrett Allen’s chance to shine for the Cavs. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel behind only Donovan Mitchell. Allen has averaged 1.0 DraftKings points and 0.98 FanDuel points per minute in his 109 minutes this season without Mobley and Garland.
He has only reached double-digit points in one of his last five games, but he has played over 36 minutes in each of his last two games while helping to cover for Mobley. Allen typically delivers good defensive numbers and should be more involved offensively over the next few weeks.
Allen is in the top six in median, ceiling, and floor projections at center on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he isn’t in the top nine salaries at the position on either site, indicating he is expected to outproduce his salary on Saturday.
Fast Break
On DraftKings, Joel Embiid has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine straight games. In those games, he has averaged 2.03 DraftKings points and 1.99 FanDuel points per minute. He has averaged 36.3 points, 12.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists in those contests. The Hornets usually give up a ton of points and will likely remain without starting center Mark Williams (back), setting up a smash spot for Embiid.
The Hawks have been getting good value production from both Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu. Capela has exceeded salary-based expectations is six straighton FanDuel, where he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center. On DraftKings, he has the third-highest at the position.
If you have to spend under $5,000 at center, Trey Lyles has the best Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and Jaylin Williams has the best Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
