The NBA gets the work week off to a fast start this Monday night with 12 games on the main slate, which tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. It’s an early-heavy slate with most of the games starting early in the window and just the Pelicans-Nuggets closing things out after they get started at 9:00 p.m. ET. The Mavericks Pistons, Warriors and Spurs are playing for the second consecutive day, but there are no NBA games at all on Tuesday due to Election Day, which is why Monday has 24 teams taking the court.
It should be a busy and fascinating night of contests. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
After missing one game with an ankle injury, Tyrese Haliburton was able to play both Friday and Saturday and put up big games for the Pacers. The projections point to him continuing his early-season momentum in Monday’s matchup with the Spurs. Haliburton has the highest ceiling projection of all point guards, even higher than Luka Doncic, who is significantly more expensive.
Haliburton also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and the most Pts/Sal at the position in our DraftKings projections, while he comes in third at the position in both those value-indicating metrics on FanDuel.
In four of his five games this season, Haliburton has exceeded salary-based expectations, and he has posted a double-double in each of his five games while averaging 1.58 DraftKings points and 1.49 FanDuel points per minute. His best performance came in his most recent game on Saturday when he went off for 43 points, 69.5 DraftKings points and 63.4 FanDuel points in a loss to the Hornets.
Monday’s matchup with the Spurs should set him up in a smash spot. San Antonio ranks in the top 10 in the NBA in Pace and the bottom five in Defensive Rating. As a result, the Pacers have the highest implied team total on our Vegas Dashboard, and this contest has the highest over/under as well. When the Pacers offense is putting up points, it’s usually because Haliburton is going wild, and he should have the chance and the matchup to do that again on Monday.
Value
The Pelicans will be without guard C.J. McCollum (lung) for their game in Denver and Jose Alvarado (ankle) is still not ready for his season debut. That will leave a lot of work for Dyson Daniels, who has a great chance to step up and deliver outstanding value.
Daniels is in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at point guard on FanDuel, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating and is still under $4K. On DraftKings, he’s a little more expensive but still ranks in the top seven in both those categories.
Helping to fill in for Alvarado, the 20-year-old Australian has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his six contests with an Average Plus/Minus of 5.02 FanDuel points and 3.54 DraftKings points. He has produced 0.89 DraftKings points and 0.91 FanDuel points per minute so far this season, and that should make him a great value play Monday, with his minutes projected to jump over 30 without McCollum.
Fast Break
Fred VanVleet has been excellent in three of his past four games, with over 20 points and over 11 assists in each of those contests and over 45 DraftKings points. One of those games was on Saturday against the Kings, who he’ll face again on Monday. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all point guards on this DraftKings slate, behind only Haliburton. He is a little more expensive on FanDuel but is still expected to return good value.
Our Projections give Luka Doncic the highest median projection of all point guards on Monday but indicate he’s a little over-priced for his expected production. Kyrie Irving, Stephen Curry, and Trae Young also have plenty of potential for big games, but they seem to be over-priced based on their expected production, especially compared to Haliburton and Van Vleet. If you don’t like those two top-shelf plays, the projections indicate that paying down a little for Tyrese Maxey or Jalen Brunson makes more sense than stretching for those overpriced options.
Until a down game on Saturday in Orlando, D’Angelo Russell was rolling along in the early going for the Lakers. He had posted four straight good games exceeding salary-based expectations before that letdown and will look to get back on track across the state in Miami on Monday.
Markelle Fultz (knee) is questionable after missing the last two games with knee swelling. If he returns at full strength, he’ll be a good play in a favorable matchup against the Mavericks. If he’s sidelined, Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs will get a chance to step up again and be in a favorable spot as midrange plays.
Editor’s note: Fultz was ruled out after this article was submitted. Check the NBA Models for updates in projections.
Other midrange plays that stand out include Coby White, Tre Jones, and Mike Conley. With De’Aaron Fox (ankle) ruled out and missing a third straight game, Davion Mitchell and Malik Monk are also in the mix in their expanded roles as they face the Rockets again.
Daniels isn’t the only cheap play that makes sense at point guard. Jamal Murray (hamstring) has been ruled out on the other side of that Western Conference matchup which sets up Reggie Jackson to step into a larger role. Jackson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all point guards on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. He also has a good matchup with an Opponents Plus/Minus of +2.61. Isaiah Joe is another cheap point guard on FanDuel while he is eligible at small forward on DraftKings. He projects to be a good cheap option at either spot as he helps the Thunder fill in for the continued absence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (knee).
Editor’s note: Shai was upgraded to questionable after this article was submitted. Check the NBA Models for updates in projections.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The highest ceiling projection on the FanDuel slate at shooting guard belongs to the Bulls Zach LaVine, even though he is priced outside the top 10 at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings, behind only Steph Curry. LaVine has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and is tied for the second-most Pts/Sal.
LaVine and the Bulls host the Jazz as they look to snap a three-game losing streak. On Saturday, LaVine played limited minutes in a blowout loss in Denver, but before that, he had a huge game against the Nets at home last Friday. He has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points and 0.91 FanDuel points per minute on the season with a 29.5% usage rate. He’s projected for a 30.02% usage rate in this matchup with a heavy 36-minute workload.
On a slate where every scrap of salary will be crucial, LaVine is a great way to get elite-level production at a relatively affordable rate. His ceiling is extremely high in this crucial home game.
Value
Editor’s note: Shai was upgraded to questionable after this article was submitted. Check the NBA Models for updates in projections.
The absence of SGA opened up a huge role for Thunder rookie Cason Wallace, who was the No. 10 pick in the NBA Draft out of Kentucky. Wallace stepped into the starting lineup on Friday night in a thrilling game against the Warriors. He finished with 13 points, 17 DraftKings points, and 15.9 FanDuel points, but the key stat was that he played 36 minutes with a 12.6% usage rate.
Since he’s expected to fill a similar role in tonight’s home game against the Hawks, Wallace has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on FanDuel, where he’s still only $4,200 with a 95% Bargain Rating. At DraftKings, Wallace can fit at either shooting guard or point guard and has a solid projection from his $5,200 price point as well.
The Thunder-Hawks game has the second-highest over/under on the slate, and the Thunder have the sixth-highest implied team total. With so many points available, Wallace brings a high ceiling for such a cheap option.
Fast Break
One player who’s sure to get tons of attention on Monday is James Harden, who will be making his Clippers debut at Madison Square Garden. While he doesn’t project well at his price point on this slate, keep a close eye on his conditioning and his usage, along with how his arrival and incorporation impact the usage of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Russell Westbrook. The Clippers will have plenty of players capable of putting up big numbers, but how the usage and opportunities are divided will be important to understand moving forward.
Of the options at the top of the salary structure, Anthony Edwards and Cade Cunningham have strong projections in their home matchups against the Celtics and Warriors, respectively. If you’re going to pay up at this spot, they are the top two options to consider.
I’m a huge Dejounte Murray fan, and he continues to represent strong value from his salary just behind the top tier of options. He’s in a good up-tempo spot against the Thunder and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his past five games. He stuffs the stat sheet in multiple categories and has produced 1.13 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute this season. While there’s always a chance that Trae Young carries the day and Murray takes a back seat, Murray also brings a very high ceiling of his own and can go off for a monster game in multiple ways.
On DraftKings especially, Jordan Clarkson brings strong projections to his contest in Chicago. Clarkson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Klay Thompson is underpriced with a 97% Bargain Rating and should return good value as long as he plays on the second night of the back-to-back as expected, according to coach Steve Kerr.
Other midrange plays that stand out in the projections include De’Anthony Melton of the 76ers, Buddy Hield of the Pacers, and Jalen Green of the Rockets. Christian Braun of the Nuggets is a solid play with Murray out, although he is already priced up to $5K on DraftKings. He’s a better value on FanDuel at $4,500, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating.
If you have to go cheap, Dyson Daniels is a good option at this spot as well. You can also check out Malaki Branham, who is just $4,100 on DraftKings but stepped up with 16 points and six rebounds for the Spurs on Sunday. He has produced 0.82 DraftKings points and 0.8 FanDuel points per minute on the season, and he could be a great value play if he gets minutes in the high-speed game in Indiana.
Jordan Hawkins is another value play who makes sense since he’ll help fill in for McCollum after filling in for Brandon Ingram in his past few games. Chris Duarte had an expanded role for the Kings in his most recent game and could also be stepping into more work.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Magic have the third-highest Pace Differential of the 24 teams on this slate, and especially if Fultz remains sidelined, Franz Wagner should continue to bring elite upside at his salary of just over $7K. Wagner has led Orlando to nice wins against the Jazz and Lakers. They’re 4-2 to start the season and are playing better than many people realize.
Wagner has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute with a 23.8% usage rate. He typically takes a more active play-making role when Fultz is out, and his usage rate increases by 3.26 percentage points to a team-high 30.2%.
Like Haliburton and LaVine, Wagner is a great way to get elite upside at a salary that is a notch below the most expensive plays on the board. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games with an Average Plus/Minus of 8.0 FanDuel points and 3.8 DraftKings points over that span.
Value
In his past two games, Michael Porter Jr. has found a nice groove for the Nuggets, and he’s in the top eight of Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at small forward on this huge slate. The Nuggets will need other offensive options to step up with Jamal Murray out, and MPJ is one of their best scorers available.
He had 24 points and nine rebounds for 42 DraftKings points last Friday against Dallas and followed that up with 27 points and six boards for 45 DraftKings points on Saturday in the second game of the back-to-back. Porter has always brought huge upside but has had trouble staying healthy. The fact that he played heavy minutes and stuffed the stat sheet in both games is a great indication of his health and his growing role for the defending champs.
He has produced 1.1 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute so far this season and should pick up a little more scoring responsibility while Murray is sidelined.
Fast Break
At the very top of the small forward salary structure, both Jayson Tatum and LeBron James bring very high ceiling projections. If you have the salary to spend, either superstar makes sense, even though they’re on the road. They do have negative Projected Plus/Minus, though, so it makes more sense to target someone who brings some savings along with their potential ceiling.
DeMar DeRozan has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel in a good matchup against the Jazz. On the other side of that matchup, you could also consider Lauri Markkanen in his return to Chicago.
Only LeBron and Karl-Anthony Towns match Ausar Thompson’s 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, according to our Trends Tool. Thompson matches a slate-high 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel as well, but on that site, he’s only eligible at shooting guard while he can fit at either forward spot on DraftKings. Thompson has produced an impressive 1.16 DraftKings points and 1.2 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s a very strong midrange consideration.
If you need to go with a lower-cost midrange play, Luguentz Dort has come alive in his last two games with 20 and 26 points against the Hornets and Kings, respectively. He will have to carry more of the offensive workload without SGA, so he should again be a good play against the Hawks. Austin Reaves and Dillon Brooks have also had good multi-category production in the early part of the season.
Editor’s note: Shai was upgraded to questionable after this article was submitted. Check the NBA Models for updates in projections.
If you’re shopping on the cheap end of the salary structure at small forward, Kyle Anderson and Bogdan Bogdanovic stand out on DraftKings while Torrey Craig of the Bulls continues to return good value on FanDuel from his salary below $4K. Craig is only eligible at power forward on DraftKings, but he is just $3.5K and offers elite bargain value.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
For our top power forward play, let’s go back to that Thunder-Hawks matchup again. Chet Holmgren has been showing off his high ceiling and brings the third-highest ceiling projection of all power forwards even though he only has the 14th-highest salary.
Holmgren has been making up for lost time after missing his rookie season and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his past five games. On the season, he has produced 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.3 FanDuel points per minute. He has shown his high ceiling with a double-double against the Cavs earlier this season that got him over 50 DraftKings points and over 40 DraftKings points in each of his past two games while filling in multiple categories in the box score. He’s still a little riskier than some of the more established options that cost more, but his upside and leverage are hard to pass up if you expect this game to be high-scoring.
On FanDuel, Holmgren is only eligible at center, but there are several other elite center plays like Domantas Sabonis, Anthony Davis, and Karl-Anthony Towns who do have power forward eligibility on that site if you’re looking for an elite play.
Value
There have been no signs of a sophomore slump for Jabari Smith Jr., who has gotten off to a strong start to his second season with the Rockets. He ranks in the top five in Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings.
Smith has been trending in the right direction, exceeding salary-based expectations in four straight contests and producing 0.99 DraftKings points and 0.95 FanDuel points per minute during that span, with an Average Plus/Minus of 7.62 DraftKings points and 8.87 FanDuel points.
On Saturday, Smith had 21 points and 11 rebounds for a season-high 39.75 DraftKings points in the Rockets win over the Kings, and he has a +1.55 Opponents Plus/Minus in the rematch for Monday night. Smith is a key part of the Rockets’ rotation, and getting him under $6K makes him an especially good value on DraftKings. He also makes sense on FanDuel, although his salary has climbed to $6,200 after his recent strong showings.
Fast Break
The highest pure ceiling projection at power forward on DraftKings goes to Giannis Antetotkoumpo, while Domantas Sabonis snags that spot on FanDuel. Tatum and Towns are right there among the elite options as well, along with rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama, who has looked very impressive in his last few games.
Alongside Wagner, Paolo Banchero has been excellent for the Magic in their last two wins, and he brings a very nice ceiling in this pace-up spot at home against the Mavs. Banchero has produced over 50 DraftKings and FanDuel points in each of his past two games.
After sitting one game for rest, Zion Williamson returned on Saturday with a 25-point performance against the Hawks. He may get more usage against the Nuggets on Monday with McCollum out, although Brandon Ingram’s return to full strength may cancel that out.
On DraftKings, Jalen Williams has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and the second-highest Pts/Sal. Williams is eligible as shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel, where he also has strong value projections. He has been a big part of the Thunder’s fill-in play while SGA is sidelined.
Across from Williams, Holmgren, and Dort, Jalen Johnson should continue to start for the Hawks in OKC on Monday night. Johnson has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at power forward on DraftKings and is in the top seven for both those value metrics at small forward on FanDuel.
Draymond Green is coming off a strong game on Sunday and projects to be a solid value as he plays in Detroit. As a Michigan State alum, he always seems to bring his A-game to the Motor City. Harrison Barnes is another strong mid-range play along with Aaron Gordon, who projects for the highest Pts/Sal of any power forward on FanDuel.
Ultra-cheap plays at power forward who look good in our models include Cedi Osman of the Spurs and Kelly Olynyk of the Jazz on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Torrey Craig of the Bulls leads the way for cheap power forwards, with Jalen Smith of the Pacers, Kyle Anderson of the T-Wolves, and Al Horford of the Celtics also showing as good plays under $5K.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
So far, in our stud plays, we’ve been looking at options that bring top ceiling projections from non-top salaries. At center, though, you get what you pay for with Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. Jokic and Embiid bring the top two ceiling projections on the whole slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Both are elite plays, but Embiid has a slightly higher usage projection even with Jokic playing without Jamal Murray.
Embiid is a little cheaper on DraftKings, and as a result, he brings higher Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus. Embiid has produced 1.78 DraftKings points and 1.69 FanDuel points per minute on the season, while Jokic has produced 1.77 DraftKings points and 1.7 FanDuel points per minute. Jokic has been slightly more consistent this year, while Embiid has the higher single-game high point dropping 81.25 DraftKings points against the Trail Blazers last week.
Jokic makes sense in cash lineups, especially on FanDuel, where he is a little cheaper, but on DraftKings, it’s hard to pass up Embiid’s ceiling in what should be a smash spot against the Wizards. The Sixers have the third-highest implied team total on the board, and the Wizards may be without Daniel Gafford (ankle, questionable), which would leave them even more short-handed upfront and without any answer for Embiid.
Value
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Goga Bitadze has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center. Bitadze got the start on Saturday in place of Wendell Carter Jr. (finger), who is out for at least the next three weeks. Bitadze was superb in 26 minutes with 10 points, 10 boards, and five blocks for 37 DraftKings points and 40 FanDuel points.
While he probably won’t turn in such high numbers on a nightly basis, he brings an immensely high ceiling for a starting center who is available under $5K. He should continue to play well over 20 minutes a night in the starting five and be a solid defensive anchor with plenty of upsides in blocks. His new starting role makes him a great value at this salary on Monday vs. the Mavericks.
Fast Break
Even though he didn’t go off in this same matchup on Saturday, Domantas Sabonis has a high ceiling in his matchup with the Rockets. He will have to carry the load without Fox, and a monster game is definitely within the range of possible outcomes. Anthony Davis, Victor Wembanyama, and Karl-Anthony Towns are also strong considerations if you’re able to pay for a high-priced center but not get all the way to Jokic or Emibiid.
With Bitadze representing such elite value, other midrange options pale in comparison. If you want to fade the Goga chalk, though, some options to consider include Myles Turner of the Pacers, Zach Collins of the Spurs, and Onyeka Okongwu of the Hawks.
Okongwu has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and would be my top value option on DraftKings aside from Bitadze. On FanDuel, it’s harder to find a cheap center play, but Jalen Smith of the Pacers and Al Horford of the Celtics project to be the top two plays under $5K. If Horford gets a second straight start, he’ll be an even stronger play.
