The NBA starts another work week of great DFS action with six games on Monday night’s slate. The Clippers and Suns are each finishing a back-to-back when they meet in the late game, but the other 10 teams in the player pool had Sunday off. None of these 12 teams play on Tuesday, so there shouldn’t be any rotation adjustments due to playing on the front half of a back-to-back.
As we continue through the middle part of the season, most teams are dealing with injury issues that can impact the fantasy slate. It’s always important to keep a close eye on injury reports as we lead up to tip-off. Be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
There are two elite pay-up options to consider building around at point guard on Monday, and both are in favorable spots. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder visit the Wizards, while Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers host the Celtics in the second game of their two-game set in Indianapolis. Both have great ceilings, but our projections give the edge to SGA, who has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate.
He should be an especially good play on DraftKings, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
The Thunder have the highest implied team total on the slate since the Wizards play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and have the worst defensive rating. The only concern is that the game could turn into a blowout, but Gilgeous-Alexander projects for a solid 35.1 minutes with a 33% usage rate.
SGA has scored at least 30 points in nine of his last 10 games and has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in nine of those 10 contests by producing 1.64 DraftKings points and 1.65 FanDuel points per minute in 34.4 minutes per game.
Value
One of the most significant absences on Monday’s slate will be Damian Lillard (personal), who is away from the Bucks as they visit Utah. In addition, Cameron Payne (concussion) has been ruled out, leaving plenty of playing time and usage in the backcourt. Andre Jackson Jr. is one player who should step in and carry part of the load. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and the second-highest at small forward on DraftKings, where his salary is only $3,100. On FanDuel, he’s also under $4,000 but only eligible at shooting guard.
Jackson has had a solid rookie season with the Bucks after being traded from the Magic as a second-round pick. He has made five starts for Milwaukee and played over 25 minutes in his two most recent starts in mid-December, with good stat lines in each contest.
He only has a 13.9% usage rate on the season, but he should be able to get enough playing time and opportunities to return value at his bargain salary on Monday.
The Jazz are a soft matchup, and he could also soak up garbage time production.
Fast Break
Haliburton had a down game on Saturday in the Pacers’ loss to the Celtics, but he’ll look to bounce back in the rematch. He had been rolling before that contest and has produced 1.70 DraftKings points and 1.66 FanDuel points per minute over his last eight games. He averaged 23.6 points and 14.4 assists over that span, with seven double-doubles.
After an ice-cold shooting stretch, Coby White seems to be back in business after two strong games last week. He had 26 points and eight assists against the Knicks and then a very nice 22-point, 10-rebound double-double against the Hornets to finish last week. The quality of his looks should improve even if his usage dips a little as Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic return to full strength. If he can increase his non-scoring numbers like he did the last two games, he has a very high ceiling in Monday’s rematch with Charlotte.
As a midrange option, Tyus Jones has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel and the sixth-highest on DraftKings. He has been steady over his last 10 games, averaging 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute. He has cooled off after a big mid-December hot streak but still brings a good ceiling for a play around $6,000.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Without Lillard and Payne, Khris Middleton will likely have to carry more play-making responsibilities. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel as a result. He also brings the highest ceiling projection on both sites at shooting guard, even though he only has the seventh-highest salary at the position on DraftKings and the 13th-highest on FanDuel.
With Lillard off the floor over the last 11 games, Middleton has seen a massive 11.4 percentage point increase in usage to a 35.3% usage rate. In that scenario, he has produced 1.31 DraftKings points and 1.34 FanDuel points per minute.
Middleton has been ramping up in general lately, averaging 29.8 minutes per game with a 23.9% usage over his last 11 games. Without Lillard, he and Giannis Antetokounmpo will be the focus of the offense and could have a bit of a “throwback” game to before Dame’s arrival. Middleton should have no trouble exceeding salary-based expectations with more work coming his way.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, the Jazz have some good value potential since it’s a big-time pace-up spot for them against the Bucks. They have the third-highest pace differential on the slate, so opportunities for big games should be available. Which guard gets the work is a little tricky to predict, but our models like Kris Dunn as a cheap play and both Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson as well.
Of the three, Sexton sets up to be the best play overall. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating with a salary of just under $6,000. Sexton has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games on DraftKings, producing 1.26 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute. His usage has been slightly lower than Clarkson’s, but he has been steadier and must less “boom-or-bust” than Clarkson.
Fast Break
Terry Rozier has a top-four Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel as he leads the Hornets at home against the Bulls. He struggled in the first game of the home-and-home on Friday, but he had 34 and 42 points in his two previous games to post huge Plus/Minus against the Kings and Suns.
Jaylen Brown and Derrick White could be in store for big games against the Pacers if Jayson Tatum (injury management, questionable) or Kristaps Porzingis (eye, questionable) ends up sitting on Monday. With Tatum and Porzingis off the floor, White has a team-high 33.2% usage rate this season, while Brown has a 30.0% usage rate. White has produced 1.34 DraftKings points and 1.35 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario, so he will be an especially strong play if either or both stars sit for the Celtics.
Without Dame, MarJon Beauchamp and Malik Beasley are two of the strongest values on the cheap end of the salary spectrum. Cason Wallace is also a strong value play, especially if the Thunder turns their matchup with the Wizards into a blowout.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Since the Jazz should be in a great game environment vs. the Bucks, Lauri Markkanen has a very high ceiling at small forward. He has the third-highest ceiling projection in the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only Tatum and Middleton.
Markkanen has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games on DraftKings and seven of his last 10 on FanDuel. In those 10 games, he has produced 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.29 FanDuel points per minute and played 31.5 minutes per game with a 25.9% usage rate.
On Saturday, Markkanen had a huge game against the short-handed 76ers, carrying the Jazz to their fourth win in their last five games with 33 points and 13 boards.
Value
While the Wizards have been a mess most of the season, Deni Avdija has shown good upside when given a decent role. He ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at small forward and power forward on DraftKings, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel.
On Saturday, Avdija had 23 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists in the Wizards’ loss to the Knicks. He exceeded salary-based expectations for the fourth time in his last five games on FanDuel with a Plus/Minus of +12.3 FanDuel points over that span.
Avdija can sometimes disappear due to the Wizards’ inconsistent rotations, but if he gets 30+ minutes against the Thunder, he should be one of the top value forwards available.
Fast Break
For the Hornets, Miles Bridges has scored 20+ points in six of his last seven games, including 25+ points in three straight. With LaMelo Ball (ankle), Gordon Hayward (calf), and P.J. Washington (foot) all sidelined for this rematch against the Bulls, Bridges is projected for 25.1% usage in 37.1 minutes, which gives him the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel at small forward. He is eligible at power forward on DraftKings.
SGA’s supporting cast is sometimes overlooked, but the Thunder aren’t just a one-man show. Jalen Williams has been playing well since returning from injury and has scored 16+ points in seven of his last eight games while averaging 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.14 FanDuel points per minute. The matchup gives him enough of a boost to make him worth a look, even though his salary has climbed in recent weeks.
Most of the best cheap small forwards have been discussed above, with Jackson, Dunn, and Corey Kispert bringing the top three Projected Plus/Minus under $6,000 at the position on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Beauchamp, Beasley, and Bilal Coulibaly have the top three spots in that price range.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
No Dame means more Giannis Antetokoumpo, which could be big trouble for the Jazz. Giannis has been dominant all season, but he has been especially sharp over his last 10 games. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of those contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he brings the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all the players on Monday’s slate. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
On the season, he is averaging an impressive 1.69 DraftKings points and 1.66 FanDuel points per minute, but with Lillard off the floor, those numbers jump to 1.71 DraftKings points and 1.69 FanDuel points per minute. In his last 10 games, he has produced 1.81 DraftKings points and 1.78 FanDuel points per minute.
Giannis is coming off back-to-back games with over 40 points and over 13 rebounds and is riding a streak of seven straight double-doubles. All his numbers are incredibly impressive, but they all point to one thing–pay up for Giannis if you can. He makes a great anchor for your Monday night squad.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, John Collins is in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on Monday. He still comes with a salary under $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel and has found a good rhythm over the last few games after missing four games in December with an illness.
The former Hawk has scored double-digit points in five straight games and managed a double-double in just 22 minutes last Friday in Boston. He followed that up with 19 points and five boards the next night in Philly. Over his last five games, Collins has produced a solid 1.17 DraftKings points and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute. In this pace-up spot against the Bucks, he should be a good value Monday night.
Fast Break
Kevin Durant made his return on Sunday night and had 23 points and 10 boards in a six-point loss to Memphis. The Suns will be an important injury report to watch for to see if he’s ready to go on the second night of the back-to-back. If not, Chimezie Metu could be a nice midrange play, but if KD plays and either Devin Booker or Bradley Beal sits out, Durant would have a very high ceiling.
The Pacers listed Bruce Brown (knee), Isaiah Jackson (finger), and Andrew Nembhard (back) as questionable for their game with the Celtics. Jalen Smith and Aaron Nesmith could end up in larger roles if Brown or Jackson is out and represent good value as midrange options. Both have been fairly productive when given opportunities lately.
Another Bucks player who projects to be a good value is Pat Connaughton, who could get more playmaking responsibilities without Lillard or more usage as Middleton takes over more work in the backcourt.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The matchup between Bam Adebayo and Alperen Sengun should be a good one as the Heat host Houston. Adebayo is slightly better in our projections and has the highest median and ceiling projection at the position (aside from Giannis on DraftKings). Bam has a slightly higher Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, but Sengun has a better Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he has a 77% Bargain Rating.
Adebayo has produced six double-doubles in his last seven games and should keep carrying more of the load with Jimmy Butler (toe) sidelined. In his last seven games, he has produced 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.26 FanDuel points per minute. He’s been a strong option most of the season while taking on more work, and this should be a good spot for him against Houston.
On the other side, Sengun matches 11 Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which is the most of any center on the slate on both sites. He has cooled off in the last two games for the Rockets but was on a heater before that, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his previous seven games on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
The Hornets have been regularly listing Mark Williams (back) as questionable, but they listed him as out for Monday’s game and later announced that he is without a timetable to return. That should clear the way for Nick Richards to lock into the everyday role. Richards has started 13 straight games and averaged 29.1 minutes per game, but now he won’t have to watch over his shoulder for Williams’ impending return.
Since his promotion to the starting lineup, Richards has produced 0.85 DraftKings points and 0.86 FanDuel points per minute. He has been trending up, though, with double-digit boards in five of his last seven games and has produced 0.91 DraftKings points and 0.91 FanDuel points per minute in 30.0 minutes per game.
Fast Break
On DraftKings, Brook Lopez has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on the slate, along with a 91% Bargain Rating. He should also be in line for more usage with Lillard out and in that juicy matchup against the Jazz.
In another great matchup, Chet Holmgren has strong projections against the Wizards. At center, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. If you can’t quite afford to buy into the Heat-Rockets matchup, Holmgren is a solid alternative who should have a big game as long as the Thunder don’t blow the Wizards out early.
If you have to go ultra-cheap at center, Mike Muscala has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the bargain options on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Daniel Theis and Nikola Jovic are also low-cost alternatives with decent projections to consider if you spend up at other spots.
