The first work week of December starts with the first-ever quarterfinals of the NBA’s new In-Season Tournament. Two quarterfinal matchups are scheduled for Monday’s main DFS fantasy basketball slate, and two more are scheduled for Tuesday.
None of the four teams in action on Monday are on a back-to-back, so we should get fairly regular rotations as teams look to advance to Thursday’s semifinals.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The biggest question mark on Monday’s slate from an availability perspective is the health of Pacers’ superstar point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton is questionable due to illness after missing the Pacers’ game on Saturday. If he’s in and near 100%, he’ll be a great play, but there is definitely risk building around him even if he is ruled available (more on Haliburton alternatives below).
The best stud alternative at point guard is projected to be De’Aaron Fox of the Kings as they host the Pelicans. Fox has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel without Haliburton in the projections. He also has the highest Pts/Sal at the position on DraftKings.
Fox has averaged 1.4 DraftKings points and 1.37 FanDuel points per minute in his 13 games this season and has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight of his last 10 games. He has been especially sharp in the last four games, producing 1.56 DraftKings points and 1.52 FanDuel points and exceeding salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Fox matches 10 Pro Trends, which is more than any other player on the slate. Fox has an 88% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he is priced under $10K.
On either site, Fox is a great option to build around, with a 31.2% usage projection and 37.8 projected minutes against the Pelicans. Fox also has a reputation and history of delivering in the biggest spots for the Kings. He won the first-ever Clutch Player of the Year Award last season, and he’ll look to continue leading the Kings’ resurgence this season by getting them to the Semifinals in Vegas later this week.
Value
Both of Monday’s games are expected to be high-scoring, according to our Vegas Dashboard, but the Eastern Conference matchup between the Pacers and Celtics is just a little bit higher. The Celtics have the highest implied team total of the four teams in action, and one of the top value options at point guard is Derrick White.
White has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the second-highest at point guard on FanDuel. White has produced 0.96 DraftKings points and 0.95 FanDuel points per minute while playing 32.1 minutes per game this season.
In each of his last four games, White has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel. He has produced 1.1 DraftKings points and 1.1 FanDuel points per minute over those four games with an 18.6% usage rate, which is a slight increase from his season average of 17.8%. He has been slightly more involved with Kristaps Porzingis (calf) sidelined, and he should stay very involved in the up-tempo game against Indiana.
White can contribute in multiple categories when at his best and had 18 points while exceeding salary-based expectations in the first meeting of these two teams back on Nov. 1.
Fast Break
Without Haliburton, the Pacers started Andrew Nembhard on Saturday. He only played 23 minutes and shot a shaky 1-of-9 on his way to four points. He saved his fantasy day by dishing out 11 assists. T.J. McConnell stepped up with a huge game off the bench to help the Pacers win that game against the Heat even without Haliburton. The veteran had 20 points and 11 assists. McConnell has had spike games like this in the past when in an expanded role, and Nembhard’s shooting will likely be better in this game, so he should have a bounce-back game. If Haliburton is out, both guards would be elite value plays in their expanded roles.
The Celtics are thrilled with what they’ve gotten from Jrue Holiday this season. White has slightly better projections than Holiday on Monday, but Holiday has also been starting and turning in good numbers as well, averaging 0.94 DraftKings points and 0.85 FanDuel points per minute.
For the Pelicans, C.J. McCollum is back after a three-week absence due to a collapsed lung. He sat out Saturday’s game for rest purposes but should be back on Monday after being left off the injury report. He had 20 points in 28 minutes in his return and followed that up with a well-rounded, 19-point, 8-assist game against the Spurs last Friday. He played 38 minutes in that contest and doesn’t seem to be on any limitations now.
Other than the Pacers, Payton Pritchard is the only other value option that makes sense. Pritchard can be very boom-or-bust since his role fluctuates from game to game. Since the starters will likely carry most of the workload in this contest, he’s a high-risk play. Nembhard is probably the best cheap play, even if Haliburton is active.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
On DraftKings, Brandon Ingram is only eligible at shooting guard, and on FanDuel, he’s only eligible at small forward. He brings one of the highest ceiling projections at both spots since he has been carrying so much of the load for the Pelicans and has shown the ability to go off for monster games.
Ingram has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this year and has the second-highest median and ceiling projections along with the highest floor projection at shooting guard on DraftKings. He has the second-highest Pts/Sal behind only Derrick White (discussed above). On FanDuel, Ingram has produced 1.11 FanDuel points per minute, and he has the second-highest Pts/Sal at small forward while bringing the second-highest median and floor projection behind only Jayson Tatum.
The Pelicans and Kings have played twice this season, and the Pelicans won both contests. Ingram produced 1.39 DraftKings points and 1.32 FanDuel points per minute in those two matchups, so it looks like a matchup in which he can excel. The only slight downside to Ingram is that with McCollum back and Zion Williamson on a roll, his usage can get squeezed at times.
Value
Kings’ guard Malik Monk has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at this position on DraftKings, behind only Derrick White. Monk has a 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he seems especially under-priced.
In his second season with the Kings, Monk has come off the bench in all 18 games he has played but averaged a solid 24.5 minutes and 25.0% usage rate. He has produced 1.13 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute on the year, which is excellent for a player at this salary.
Monk is coming off a strong game in Saturday’s big win against the Nuggets. He had 26 points in 28 minutes and contributed strong non-scoring numbers as well. His role as “instant offense” off the bench can lead to widely variable results, but his upside is huge and makes him worth a look at this affordable salary.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown had the highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He isn’t quite as good a value as Ingram and has been a little less consistent since there are games where he’s not called upon to do quite as much. He still has an extremely high ceiling, though, and has produced 1.06 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute while playing 34.4 minutes per game. He helped get the Celtics the win on Friday over the Sixers even after his running mate Jayson Tatum was ejected.
The Pacers have used a combination of Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin at shooting guard for most of the season. Both have the potential to go off for big games, but both have also had some quiet contests as well. Nembhard can also slide over to shooting guard as one of the better value options at this spot.
The Kings’ Kevin Huerter has been a similar midrange option that has popped off for a few big games but remains very volatile. He has been held under 15 points in five of his last seven games, but he had a huge game in the Kings’ comeback win over the Warriors to secure this spot. He also played well against the Nuggets on Saturday. His role makes him high-risk, and the projections point to Monk as a better value play, but both options can work depending on your tolerance for risk and your salary cap situation.
If you have to go ultra-cheap at shooting guard, Jordan Hawkins has shown good potential and is very cheap on FanDuel. He doesn’t have a clear path to playing time anymore, though, with McCollum and Trey Murphy back in the rotation. On DraftKings, Nebhard stands out as the best bargain.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Celtics’ strong start to the season has been helped by an improved supporting cast, but Jayson Tatum remains the superstar centerpiece. Tatum edges out Fox for the top ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel and also has the top median projection on DraftKings. Haliburton will challenge him for that top spot if he is healthy, but Tatum is the safer play since there aren’t any health concerns.
Tatum has averaged 1.3 DraftKings points and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute this season and leads the team with a 30.48 usage rate. He’s projected for just over that on Monday and has shown he can rise to the occasion in the playoffs. He should be fresh and ready to go after being ejected after just 28 minutes in Friday’s game.
In his first game against the Pacers this season, Tatum dropped 30 points to go with 12 rebounds for a dominant double-double while only playing 27 minutes in the Celtics’ blowout victory. This game should be much closer, especially if Haliburton plays, but the Pacers don’t have anyone who can slow down Tatum, so look for him to post another monster performance.
Value
On FanDuel, where he also has extra small forward eligibility, Kevin Huerter has the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position. On DraftKings, Bruce Brown takes the top spot.
Brown has started all 18 games he has played for the Pacers this year after a one-year stay in Denver that got him a Championship. He has averaged 31.8 minutes per game for Indiana with a 17.4% usage rate. That number increases to 20.1% with Haliburton off the floor. With Haliburton out on Saturday, Brown had a season-high 30 points and a 24.4% usage rate. If Haliburton is out, he becomes almost a must-start, but even if Haliburton plays, he should be a strong mid-range value.
In eight of his last 10 games, Brown has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel with an Average Plus/Minus of 6.21 FanDuel points per game. He has scored double-digit points in eight straight and has been one of the Pacers’ most consistent contributors.
Fast Break
The Pelicans had Trey Murphy III in the rotation for the first time this season on Friday against the Spurs. The 23-year-old third-year player looked sharp in his season debut, dropping 18 points in 22 minutes and hitting 4-of-10 shots from long range. He rested on Saturday but is not on the injury report for Monday’s contest. His return and high usage make the rest of the Pelicans’ wings tricky to figure out. Herbert Jones has been more defensively focused and less of a fantasy option, especially when Murphy is on the floor to take all the shots.
Harrison Barnes exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his last nine games for the Kings. He has a 16.7% usage rate on the season and has produced 0.66 DraftKings points and 0.65 FanDuel points per minute. While those rates are not super-inspiring, the upside is that he plays 31.4 minutes per game.
Another value to consider in this spot is the Celtics’ Sam Hauser. Hauser is extremely affordable, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating. He has been getting more minutes while Porzingis has been out, and he has scored at least nine points in five straight games while also adding 10 boards in one of those contests. If this game gets up-tempo with plenty of points flying, Hauser could end up being a great cheap way to get in on the action.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Since he comes over $1K cheaper than Jayson Tatum on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Zion Williamson has a better Projected Plus/Minus and a better Pts/Sal than the Celtics’ star. Zion has the best Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the second-best on DraftKings.
Zion’s ceiling, median, and floor projection are below Tatum’s on both sites, but he makes sense since he is cheaper and still brings such a high ceiling.
Williamson had 25 and 26 points in his first two games against the Kings this season and was right around his salary-based expectation in both contests. His salary has climbed over the last two weeks, and he has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points per minute over his past nine contests.
His numbers did dip a bit in Friday and Saturday’s back-to-back games, but it was a positive sign that he played on both sides of the back-to-back for the first time this season. If you are spending up at power forward but can’t get up to Tatum’s salary, Zion is a very nice option as well who brings a much higher ceiling than the other power forward options on the slate.
Value
With Kristaps Porzingis still sidelined, Al Horford should be an excellent value play. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both power forward and center on DraftKings and at center on FanDuel, where he doesn’t have the added eligibility.
Horford had accepted his reduced role coming off the bench to start the season but has started the last four games and played over 30 minutes in four of his last five contests since sitting out for rest back on Nov. 20. In those five games, Horford has produced 1.06 DraftKings points and 1.08 FanDuel points per minute. He has averaged 31.4 minutes per game and chipped in 11.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per contest.
The veteran big man has been a key part of the Celtics’ culture and the team’s chemistry, and he’ll be lined up for plenty of minutes again on Monday and for as long as Porzingis is out. He doesn’t bring the same ceiling that Zion does since his usage is much lower, but he does offer great midrange value.
Fast Break
Keegan Murray returned from a four-game absence due to a lower back injury on Saturday but struggled to just eight points on 3-of-10 shooting in 23 minutes. Murray showed a high ceiling early in the season, and his salary climbed to reflect that, but he has fallen short of salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, including each of his last five.
After coming over from the Knicks as a free agent, Obi Toppin has been very solid for the Pacers. He’s scored over 15 points in five of his last six games and is trending in the right direction. Unfortunately, he is questionable with an ankle sprain, so be sure to keep an eye on the news hub for Toppin updates as well as the big Haliburton news. If he’s not able to play, Aaron Nesmith and Isaiah Jackson will have to step up as value plays.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Domantas Sabonis brings the top ceiling, median, and floor projection at center on Monday’s slate by a wide margin. Sabonis has the third-highest ceiling and median projections on the entire slate, behind only Fox and Tatum (with Haliburton also a possibility if he’s cleared to play).
Sabonis can positively stuff the box score when he’s at his best and is coming off a strong 17-point, 15-rebound game against the Nuggets. He played well in his first two games against the Pelicans as well, posting 10 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists in their first meeting, followed by 23 points, nine rebounds, and six assists in the rematch.
On the season, Sabonis averages 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.29 FanDuel points per minute. On DraftKings, that rate of production puts him second on the slate, behind only his teammate Fox. The two should both be good plays if you can afford to pay up for them in this matchup with New Orleans.
Value
On FanDuel, Myles Turner has matched Sabonis’s per-minute production, and he comes almost $2K cheaper. Turner has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel, behind only Al Horford (discussed above). On DraftKings, there are a few more options ahead of him since his defensive stats aren’t scored quite as highly on that site. He does have the third-best Pts/Sal, however, and definitely brings a very high ceiling against Boston’s injury-depleted frontcourt.
Turner has always been a boom-or-bust option with elite upside but also the tendency to disappear at times. While his scoring has continued to be a bit of a roller coaster ride, his blocks and boards have been consistent enough to make him a strong alternative if you can’t pay all the way up for Sabonis.
Fast Break
In three of his last four games, Jonas Valanciunas has contributed a double-double, and he has at least 14 points in each of those contests. He also posted double-doubles in each of his first two games against Sabonis and the Kings. He has produced 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute and is a very stable and solid mid-range play on this slate. He doesn’t have the upside of Sabonis or even Turner since the rest of his team usually does most of the offensive work, but he’s a solid salary-saving option at under $7K on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Al Horford is a great value option as well (as discussed above), but the backup centers are all very high-risk. Trey Lyles has the best projection of the bunch on DraftKings but is only power forward eligible on FanDuel. On FanDuel, JaVale McGee and Luke Kornet are the only two options under $6.9K that are expected to bring much return at all.
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