The NBA has a beautiful five-game Christmas Day showcase this year with the biggest stars in the biggest matchups. None of the 10 teams are on the second half of back-to-backs, and none of them play again on Tuesday, so we should have a good chance at getting typical rotations with all the stars in action on the biggest stage.
There are a few injury situations to check on as we approach tip-off, so be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest updates and monitor the news hub for all the latest.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
After getting the day off on Friday with a quad bruise, Luka Doncic returned with an exceptional game on Saturday night against the Spurs, racking up 39 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. One of the most impressive things about his performance was that he only needed 31.4 minutes to reach those totals, earning him 79 DraftKings points. That was Luka’s seventh triple-double of the season and his 20th game with at least 30 points.
Luka and the Mavs head to Phoenix to visit the Suns in the final game of Christmas, and if you like to save your biggest present for last, Doncic is a good option to build around Monday. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the whole DraftKings slate and the highest floor rating on FanDuel, where he has the second-highest median and ceiling projection on the slate.
Even though he is so expensive, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings for the entire slate and the ninth-highest on FanDuel. He has a 92% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he is an especially attractive option to build around.
With Kyrie Irving (heel) still out, Doncic should carry the load in this matchup against the Suns, who rank in the top 10 in most points allowed to opposing point guards this season.
Value
With the news that Joel Embiid (ankle) will not be able to play on Christmas, Tyrese Maxey leaps to the forefront as the premier value play on the board. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on FanDuel, where he has a 75% Bargain Rating. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on DraftKings, behind only Doncic.
Maxey has been a breakout star this season, and he’s been especially good with Embiid off the floor. Maxey has produced 1.19 DraftKings points and 1.17 FanDuel points per minute on the season with a 26.9% usage rate. However, in his time with Embiid off the floor, his usage jumps to 35.0%, producing 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.38 FanDuel points per minute.
He’s also coming off a great game of 33 points and 10 assists on Friday night against Toronto. The emerging star has scored 30+ points in two straight games and six of his last 14. He will have to carry the load against Miami and has a very high ceiling as a result.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard is another great pay-up option since he is so settled in his new role with the Bucks. He has been playing 36 minutes per game over his last 10 games and producing 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.26 FanDuel points per minute. The only hesitation in rolling with Lillard is that the Knicks are a pace-down matchup and he had a relatively quiet game against them Saturday.
The Bucks do have the highest implied team total on Christmas.
Point guard is absolutely stacked, but don’t overlook Jamal Murray, who has been surging lately after missing time due to multiple injuries. Murray is in the top five for Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He scored 20+ points in each of his last five games and had nine assists on Friday in Brooklyn and then a double-double with 12 rebounds to go with 20 points in Charlotte on Saturday.
He has produced 1.36 DraftKings points and 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over his last nine games, averaging 29 minutes per game. Murray is projected to play 31.9 minutes with a 26.6% usage rate.
If you decide to pay up in other places, Payton Pritchard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the point guards under $5,000 on FanDuel. Jordan Goodwin takes the top spot in Projected Plus/Minus in that price bracket on DraftKings, where he has a 78% Bargain Rating.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With Jimmy Butler (calf) questionable, Tyler Herro could be another player stepping in to deliver extra fantasy goodies on Christmas Day. Herro has a top-five ceiling projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, even with Butler in the projections.
With Butler off the floor, he has a 30.2% usage rate in his three games since returning from injury. He has produced 1.31 DraftKings points and 1.18 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario since returning.
Herro has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in each of his three games since coming back from injury with an average Plus/Minus of 6.37 FanDuel points. He had 25 points in each of those three contests, including a 30-point performance on Friday against the Hawks when Butler was out. If Butler is out, Herro has an especially high ceiling but makes a solid play either way.
Value
De’Anthony Melton is another great value play on Christmas from the Sixers. Melton has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and a top-six Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
Melton has the second-highest ceiling projection of shooting guards on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings, where he has an 87% Bargain Rating. On the season, Melton has produced 0.92 DraftKings points and 0.92 FanDuel points per minute, but those numbers jump to 1.17 DraftKings points and 1.15 FanDuel points per minute with Embiid off the floor. He’s projected to play 28 minutes since he has been removed from the injury report after missing Friday’s game with a thigh injury.
Fast Break
At shooting guard, Devin Booker has the highest median and ceiling projection. With Bradley Beal still sidelined, Booker is projected for 31.5% usage, and he will likely carry a large enough workload to be a top option since he has produced 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.31 FanDuel points per minute on the season. He gets a great matchup against the Mavericks, who struggle against opposing guards.
Jaylen Brown has been on a very nice roll for the Celtics, with 24+ points in four straight games. He has produced 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over his last seven games, averaging 33.3 minutes per game and exceeding salary-based expectations in six of those seven contests.
Other than Melton, Brandin Podziemski projects to be the best Christmas bargain at shooting guard, especially on DraftKings where he has an 87% Bargain Rating. Podz moved into the starting lineup for the Warriors for the last six games, averaging 29.3 minutes and producing 0.99 DraftKings points and 0.91 FanDuel points per game. He had 15 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists in Saturday’s win over the Trail Blazers and has emerged as a great value with a good ceiling in a growing role for Golden State.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
LeBron James has been a Christmas tradition for many years, and he has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all small forwards on DraftKings, along with the second-highest Pts/Sal. On FanDuel, he has the second-highest median and ceiling projection and the highest floor projection at shooting guard, with the fourth-highest Pts/Sal.
James is questionable, as has become the norm for him, but he has usually been able to play through the tag with no limitations. He looked great after being questionable for Saturday’s game. He returned from a one-game break with his first 40-point performance of the season and added seven points and seven assists as well.
He has a history of big games against Boston and had 41 and 33 points in their two meetings last season, with nearly a triple-double in each contest. The Lakers haven’t been especially sharp since winning the In-Season Tournament, but they have proven they can get up for big games. LeBron is a relatively safe play as long as his injury status isn’t an obstacle.
Value
While Draymond Green has been suspended, Jonathan Kuminga has started six straight games. The 21-year-old has averaged 14.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 25.9 minutes per game in those starts, producing 1.01 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute. He has scored double-digit points in each of his last nine games, including 22 points against the Wizards on Friday and 11 points, six boards, and five assists on Saturday.
Kuminga has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel and a top-10 Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings. He also has the flexibility to move to power forward on either site. From under $6,000, he offers both a high floor and a high ceiling as a starter.
Fast Break
Along with Luka, another member of the Mavs who has had to step up with Kyrie out has been Dante Exum. Exum is eligible at point guard and small forward on DraftKings, and he’s eligible at point guard and small forward on FanDuel. He’s a better value play on DraftKings, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward. He has at least 14 points in seven of his last eight games and has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points and 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over that stretch.
Khris Middleton had 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists in 33 minutes against the Knicks on Saturday afternoon, and he has ramped up to the point that he makes sense at this midrange salary. He has scored at least 14 points in five straight games, and he has a top-seven Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Marcus Morris Sr. has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He will likely help cover some of the minutes and usage vacated by Embiid. He has shown the ability to produce in multiple categories, even though he doesn’t usually get a ton of shots.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Kevin Durant has the third-highest ceiling projection on the whole slate. He has a good Projected Plus/Minus on both sites as well, and our projections indicate he’s actually underpriced, especially on DraftKings, where he has an 84% Bargain Rating.
Durant has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.32 FanDuel points per minute on the season and has scored 25 points or more in every game since Opening Night. In his 23 games since then, he has averaged 31.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game.
The Suns have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, and if they’re able to put up big points at home in the desert, KD is likely to end up with a great stat line vs. the Mavs.
Value
Tobias Harris had a season-high 33 points on Friday against Toronto and added eight rebounds and seven assists in one of his best fantasy games of the season. With Embiid now out for this matchup with the Heat, Harris will have a chance to build on that momentum on Christmas night in South Beach.
Harris has produced 0.94 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute with Embiid off the floor this season with a 23.3% usage rate. Of all players at both small forward and power forward, Harris has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Pts/Sal on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Fast Break
It’s always hard to fade Giannis Antetkounmpo since his ceiling seems to be limitless. He has averaged an amazing 1.64 DraftKings points and 1.61 FanDuel points per minute this season and has a top-four Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating.
Giannis always has the potential to go off and totally break the slate with a massive game, but in this pace-down matchup, that seems slightly less likely. He had “only” 28 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists against the Knicks on Saturday afternoon while playing just 32 minutes in a blowout win.
On the other side of that matchup, Julius Randle has 25+ points in three straight games and six of his last nine. Randle has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over that span. It’s a pace-up spot for him and the Knicks as they try to keep up with the Bucks.
Morris has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the cheap options on both sites with Drew Eubanks (discussed below) and Robert Covington as other values at FanDuel. On DraftKings, Covington, and Grant Williams rank just behind Morris as options under $5,000.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Whenever the Nuggets are on the slate, Nikola Jokic deserves to be considered as a cornerstone. He has the highest ceiling and median projection on the entire slate on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. Even though his salary is almost $11,000, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he brings a 94% Bargain Rating and matches 10 Pro Trends.
Jokic has produced an astronomical 1.83 DraftKings points and 1.77 FanDuel points per minute on the season and has played more minutes than anyone else for Denver, with 33.6 minutes per game and a team-high 31.4% usage rate.
He’s projected for 29.4% usage in 34.8 minutes on Christmas, which should allow him to post another good stat line against the Warriors. He had 35 points, 13 boards, five assists, and three steals in 37 minutes against the Warriors earlier this season in a close, three-point win for the Nuggets. He could have a similarly stellar performance in this Christmas rematch.
Value
There are two outstanding value options at center, with Drew Eubanks and Paul Reed expected to fill in for Jusuf Nurkic (personal) and Embiid. Reed has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel behind only Maxey and the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on DraftKings, where he has a bargain rate of just $4,300 with a 78% Bargain Rating and the highest Pts/Sal on the slate.
Reed has produced 1.02 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute on the season, and he should be poised for more work with Embiid out. In the three games he has played without Embiid this season, Reed produced 26.25 DraftKings points and 27.63 FanDuel points per game. He’s projected for 23.8 minutes and 16.9% usage with Embiid out Monday, so he should have no trouble returning value at his minimal salary.
Fast Break
Anthony Davis has been great for the Lakers this season and is also questionable, like LeBron. If James is out, Davis would be an even better play, but he is a very solid option either way. He doesn’t have quite as high an upside as Jokic and is a solid alternative.
After missing four games with an ankle injury, Dereck Lively (ankle) is questionable. If he’s able to return, he would be in a good spot against the Suns without Nurkic. The rookie has produced 0.96 DraftKings points and 1.0 FanDuel points per minute on the season. In his seven games before his injury, he was trending in the right direction with 1.04 DraftKing points and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute.
Not counting Reed, Eubanks has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on Monday’s slate under $5,000. He only had two points and two rebounds on Friday despite starting, so he definitely isn’t a lock, but he does have a high ceiling in an expanded role.
