Friday features a 13-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Luka Doncic is coming off his second straight triple-double and fifth consecutive game with at least 30 points. He became the first player in NBA history to record a 25-point triple-double in the first half. Doncic finished the last game with 40 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds in only 32 minutes. The limited playing time was due to the Mavericks winning by 50 points over the Jazz. Another blowout could be in store, with the Mavericks being a near double-digit favorite against the Trail Blazers.
Injuries are taking a toll on the Trail Blazers’ frontcourt with Jerami Grant out and Deandre Ayton doubtful. They have allowed 55.6 points in the paint per game, which is the third-highest in the league. This matchup bodes well for Doncic, who averages 15.8 drives per game this season.
With shooting 50% or better from the field in each of his last three games, Doncic is set up perfectly for another ceiling performance. He has the second-highest projected ceiling on both sites tonight.
Value
Staying in the same backcourt, Dante Exum has seen his playing time rise due to the various Mavericks injuries. Exum is coming off a season-high 26 minutes in the last game, where he stuffed the stat sheet with five points, seven assists, six rebounds, and two steals. Role players Grant Williams, Josh Green, and Maxi Kleber are all out, solidifying the minutes for Exum. He is projected to play 26 minutes tonight and is drawing 25% projected ownership on DraftKings and 35% on FanDuel.
There is more than enough production to go around in this matchup against the Trail Blazers. Exum has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last 10 games, which is the time he started getting his minutes extended. He can provide fantasy points in a variety of ways and is a cheap way to get exposure to the Mavericks offense without paying up for Luka Doncic.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is another high-priced point guard worth getting exposure to. He is averaging over 30 points per game for the second straight season and dishing out a career-high 6.3 assists per game. Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting 54.7% from the field and draws a matchup against the Warriors that always brings out the best in him. In this spot less than a month ago, Gilgeous-Alexander had 40 points, seven rebounds, and six assists while shooting 18-for-29 from the field.
Dejounte Murray would look fantastic if Trae Young is unable to play due to his illness. Monitor Young’s status the closer we get to lock because Murray exploded for 32 points and 10 assists in his one game played without Young this season. If Young is able to play, he looks like a strong pay-up option as he has scored 30+ points in six of his last eight games. The Hawks’ are eight-point road underdogs, but this matchup against the 76ers has the highest total on the slate at 241 points.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Devin Booker will get the luxury of playing without Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal tonight, which will provide him the opportunity for a big ceiling game. With Durant and Beal off the floor this season, Booker has seen his usage rate rise to 37.25%. The entire offense will run through Booker, who is averaging 27.3 points and a career-high 8.2 assists per game.
In the two games that Booker has played without Durant, he is averaging 34 points per game with a monstrous 38.5% usage rate. The Suns are slight home underdogs against the Kings in what should be a track meet with a 234.5-point total. Priced over $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel may be a sticker shock, but Booker has upside now with his peripherals. The Kings rank 21st in defensive rating while allowing 117.3 points per game.
This is an exploitable matchup for Booker tonight.
Value
Devin Booker will need a sidekick due to all of the Suns’ injuries, which is where veteran shooting guard Eric Gordon comes into play. Gordon, at $5,500 on FanDuel, is currently projected for the highest ownership on the slate at 46%. He has a 96% Bargain Rating and is projected to play 34 minutes. With Durant and Beal off the floor, Gordon has a team-high +8.77% usage rate and a +8.97 DraftKings Plus/Minus. His usage rate jumps to 27.6%, which is second behind Booker.
Not only are Durant and Beal not playing, but Grayson Allen is also out for the Suns. This matchup sets up perfectly for Gordon with the Kings allowing opponents to shoot 37.7% from behind the arc, which is the sixth-highest mark in the league.
In his first season with the Suns, Gordon is shooting over 40% from downtown, with 58% of his attempts coming from deep.
Fast Break
James Harden recorded his second double-double of the season in the last game with 20 points and 11 assists. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among all guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Harden’s production and usage rate is starting to rise. Over his last four games, Harden is averaging 21.3 points and 8.3 assists per game with a 21% usage rate. The Jazz rank 25th in defensive rating and just gave up 147 points to the Mavericks. This is a fantastic spot for Harden.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Zach LaVine is out for the next few weeks, which will flood most of the production to DeMar DeRozan. With LaVine off the floor this season, DeRozan has a team-high +2.55% usage rate and a +6.29 DraftKings Plus/Minus. DeRozan already leads the Bulls in usage rate at 26.1%, so adding to that will make him look even better in this elite matchup against the Spurs.
The Bulls are 2.5-point road favorites against the Spurs, implied for 113.5 points. The Spurs rank fourth in pace and 27th in defensive rating, making this an incredible spot to get exposure to DeRozan. In his last two games without LaVine, DeRozan is averaging 26.5 points, 6.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 44.6 DraftKings points per game. Prioritize DeRozan on FanDuel, where he is only $8,100 with 12 Pro Trends. He will be a popular play across the industry, but it is deserving in this matchup.
Value
Staying in the same game, Cedi Osman drew his first start of the season in the last game with the Spurs looking for any type of spark to break their league-leading 15-game losing streak. Osman has played 24 and 28 minutes over the last two games while averaging 26.3 DraftKings points per game. Osman is projected to start again tonight and play around 30 minutes. Priced under $5,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Osman looks like a strong value play to fit in all of the expensive options.
Osman has stuffed the stat sheet in his last two games with 17 total points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds. He has a positive Plus/Minus in each game and is in a great spot to extend that streak against the Bulls tonight who rank 20th in defensive rating this season.
Prioritize Osman on FanDuel, where he is projected for 30% ownership at his very cheap $4,200 salary.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler is another small forward who will benefit due to team injuries with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro out again. With both Adebayo and Herro out, Butler has a team-high +3.78% usage rate this season. The difficult matchup against the Cavaliers is daunting, but Butler has 33+ points in two of his last three games and is projected for a 30% usage rate tonight. At his sub $9,000 salary on FanDuel, Butler is projected for 25% ownership and fits a very popular balanced build.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum and the Celtics fell short in the first round of the In-Season Tournament, but are well-rested going into this Eastern Conference clash against the Knicks. Tatum continues to lead this star-studded Celtics team in points and rebounds, averaging a near double-double. With Kristaps Porzingis probable, Tatum will go back to his very low projected ownership of around 5% on both sites, especially in this matchup against the Knicks where the total is hovering just under 220 points.
Getting exposure to Tatum in tournaments as a pay-up option is always a good decision, even when the Celtics have a full arsenal. In his two matchups against the Knicks this season, Tatum is averaging 34.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game while shooting 57.8% from the field and 40% from behind the arc.
Tatum is an elite tournament option, as usual.
Value
Cameron Johnson is a consistent value option who has scored double-digit points in all but one game this season. Known for his outside shooting, Johnson is averaging 2.5 made 3-pointers per game while shooting 38.6% from distance. However, Johnson has increased his peripherals with a career-high in rebounds and assists per game which boosts his floor. Over his last seven games, Johnson is averaging 16.6 points and 6.7 rebounds per game while shooting 53% from the field.
Johnson looks exceptional on this slate, mainly due to the matchup against the Wizards poor defense. They rank second in pace and 29th in defensive rating, allowing a league-high 125.4 points per game. Opponents are shooting 50.4% from the field and 36.7% from behind the arc, which sets up perfectly for the sharp-shooting Johnson to have a ceiling game tonight.
Fast Break
Paolo Banchero has been dominant recently averaging 29.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 52.4 DraftKings points per game in his last three contests. Over that time, Banchero is shooting a scorching hot 54.1% from the field. He is coming off a career-high 42 points against the Cavaliers and will now get a cupcake matchup against the Pistons, who have lost a league-high 18 consecutive games. The Magic are double-digit home favorites, with Banchero looking incredible in our tools.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are unsurprisingly, two of the best plays on the slate yet again. One day, we’ll get a slate where they both don’t play on the same day. Until then, a decision has to be made. Jokic gets the slight, not tonight as the triple-double machine will play against a Rockets frontcourt for the fourth time already this season. In his previous three meetings, Jokic is averaging 35.3 points, 16.7 rebounds, 11.3 assists, and a preposterous 80 DraftKings points per game.
Playing against “Baby Jokic” Alperen Sengun seems to bring out the best in Nikola Jokic. This will be a great opportunity for a bounce back after missing a career-high 23 field goals in his last game. For some reason, Jokic’s salary on DraftKings has fallen to $12,000. Despite the drop-off, Jokic is projected for less than 5% ownership on both sites, which is far too low.
Value
The player with the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate for DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel in our NBA Models is Hawks’ center Clint Capela. He is averaging a double-double for the seventh straight season and has recorded two or more blocks in four of his last five games. Priced at $6,000 on DraftKings, Capela is projected for a slate-high 35% ownership. In the five games that Trae Young missed last season, Capela did see his usage rate rise to 17.3%.
Despite the difficult matchup against Joel Embiid who can get anyone into foul trouble, Capela still looks like a value play worth getting exposure to. In his last game against Embiid and the 76ers, Capela finished with a 17-point, 11-rebound double-double, finishing with nearly 40 DraftKings points.
He is simply too cheap for his ceiling on DraftKings tonight.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid isn’t far from Jokic in ceiling performances this season, but he didn’t see the noticeable price drop. Embiid is coming off a 50-point, 13-rebound double-double against the Wizards. He draws a matchup against a Hawks frontcourt that has allowed 55.1 points per game in the paint, which is the fourth-highest in the league. Embiid continues to lead the league in scoring and usage rate at 36.3%. Being in the best game environment on the slate, Embiid has a huge ceiling in this spot.
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