Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
James Harden is officially back, baby! The Beard is coming off a down campaign in 2021-22, particularly after getting traded to the 76ers. He averaged just 21.0 points per game in 21 regular season games with Philly, and he seemed to have lost the ability to blow by defenders. He shot just 40.2% from the field and 32.6% from 3-point range, both of which were well down from his prime years in Houston.
The 3-point shooting has yet to show up this season, but the rest of his game has been outstanding. He’s averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s carrying a monster workload through the first three games. He’s logged at least 40 minutes in back-to-back contests, and he’s currently projected for just under 38 minutes in our NBA Models.
The Pacers have also been a dream matchup to start the year, ranking first in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency.
Value
The Spurs continue to provide elite value. Most of their players have yet to be priced up to reflect their new roles, including Tre Jones at point guard. Jones has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute to start the year, and he’s played at least 30.4 minutes in back-to-back games. He should see a similar workload Monday vs. the Timberwolves, making him too cheap at just $5,000.
Fast Break
Jalen Brunson was able to get the Knicks into the win column in their last game, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two outings. He’s increased his production to 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season, which is not surprising since he’s no longer sharing the court with Luka Doncic. He stands out as one of the better options for the position at just $7,000 on FanDuel.
Jaylen Nowell fits the bill if you’re looking for a sub-$4k player on DraftKings. He’s not playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he’s made up for it with elite efficiency. He’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute through the first three games, and he did get up to 23.8 minutes in his last outing. Nowell averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute last season, so he’s proven to be a capable per-minute producer.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Jalen Green isn’t exactly priced like a stud at the moment, but he’s delivered stud-like production for DFS players. The second-year player has scored at least 29.75 DraftKings points in all three games, and he’s had at least 33.0 in each of his past two. Green also posted a season-high 31.3% usage rate in his last outing, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season.
He’ll take the floor in what’s expected to be one of the highest-scoring games Monday vs. the Jazz. The total currently sits at 231.5 points, and the 1.5-point spread suggests a back-and-forth affair. Those types of contests always have massive appeal in DFS.
Value
Devin Vassell is another elite value option for the Spurs on Monday. He’s racked up at least 35.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and while he struggled in the first game of the season, he was just 3-15 from the field. As long as he isn’t ice cold with his jumper, he’s a near-lock to pay off his current salary, especially in an above-average matchup vs. the Timberwolves. They played at the fastest pace in the league last season, and the 234.5-point total is the top mark on the slate.
Fast Break
I’m buying the Tyler Herro breakout. He’s moved into the Heat’s starting lineup this season and has responded with three straight games of at least 32.5 DraftKings points. That includes his last game, despite being limited to just 22.3 minutes due to foul trouble. He should play closer to 34 minutes on today’s slate, and he’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute to start the year. He’s another player whose salary has yet to reflect his new role.
Bruce Brown is an excellent buy-low option at just $4,100 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with an 89% Bargain Rating, and he’s currently projected for 25.9 minutes in our NBA Models. Brown has struggled to just 0.67 FanDuel points per minute this season, but he averaged 0.89 last year. Historically, Brown has provided an average Plus/Minus of +6.08 with a comparable salary and minute projection as a member of the Nets, so he’s an excellent source of value (per the Trends tool).
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
We’re only three games into the year, but I’m ready to pronounce Lauri Markkanen as a fantasy stud. Markkanen has always had plenty of potential, but he’s never been able to put it on display consistently. However, he’s gotten off to a dream start with the Jazz, coming off back-to-back games with at least 51.75 DraftKings points. He isn’t riding fluky shooting numbers either, but rather contributing in every category across the board. He’s tallied 25 boards, seven assists, two steals, two blocks, and four 3-pointers in his last two contests, so he’s provided balanced production.
Overall, he’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute through his first three outings, and there’s no reason to expect anything different vs. the Rockets. They were arguably the best matchup in fantasy last year, ranking second in pace and dead-last in defensive efficiency, and their numbers look similar through three games this season.
Value
Josh Hart continues to do what he does best: stuff the stat sheet while flying under the radar. Hart has scored at least 36.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he racked up nine points, 16 boards, and five assists in his last outing. He’s averaging a double-double for the year, and he’s played at least 36.4 minutes in each of his first three games. Hart will never be a particularly high-usage player, but he’s still capable of averaging a fantasy point per minute thanks to his elite peripheral production.
Fast Break
Anthony Edwards had a slow start to his season, but he’s coming off back-to-back 30-point games. He added 11 rebounds and three assists in his last contest, bringing his fantasy total to 45.7 FanDuel points. He’s one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel given his 89% Bargain Rating, and the Timberwolves’ 121.5 implied team total is the top mark on the slate.
It’s hard to find a better combination of minutes and an affordable price tag than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’s logged at least 31.9 minutes in three straight games and posted a Plus/Minus of at least +8.33 in each. He remains a strong value on FanDuel at just $4,700.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Pascal Siakam appears to be on a mission this season. He’s gotten off to a fantastic start, scoring at least 42.7 FanDuel points in all three games. He’s racked up at least 51.1 FanDuel points in his past two, including a monstrous 37-point triple-double vs. the Nets. Overall, Siakam has increased his production to 1.39 FanDuel points per minute after averaging 1.16 last season.
Additionally, minutes will never be an issue as long as Nick Nurse is in town. He has seemingly no problem running his players into the ground during the regular season, and Siakam leads the position with 38 projected minutes on today’s slate.
Value
Markkanen isn’t the only member of the Jazz’s frontcourt exceeding expectations to start the year. Kelly Olynyk has also provided plenty of fantasy value, racking up 33.75 DraftKings points or more in back-to-back games. Olynyk has always been an outstanding producer on a per-minute basis, but his playing time has been inconsistent. That hasn’t been the case in Utah. He’s seen at least 34.5 minutes in his past two contests, and if he continues to play that much, he’s a steal at just $5,200 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum remains underpriced at just $9,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s increased his production to a stout 1.48 DraftKings points per minute to start the year, and he’s on pace for career-highs in both rebounds and blocks per game. Tatum has always been an elite scorer, so adding a bit more production in the peripheral categories would elevate him to fantasy superstar status.
Isaiah Jackson moved into the Pacers’ starting lineup in their last contest and did not disappoint, finishing with 30.5 FanDuel points in 21.5 minutes. That kind of per-minute production isn’t an aberration: Jackson averaged 1.26 FanDuel points per minute last year. As long as he remains in the starting lineup – which is never a guarantee with the Pacers – he’s an excellent value option at power forward.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
It’s a tough call between Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid at the top of the center position. Our projections give a slight edge to Embiid, but it’s hard for me to pass on the back-to-back MVP. The two players are separated by just $400 on DraftKings, but Jokic has displayed far more fantasy upside dating back to last year. He averaged a ridiculous 1.83 DraftKings points per minute, while Embiid was at 1.58. The gap has been even wider this year, with Jokic outscoring Embiid by +0.38 DraftKings points per minute.
Embiid does have the edge from a matchup perspective, but I’ll take my chances with Jokic’s more well-rounded skill set. He’s capable of dominating a game in many ways – he already has two triple-doubles this season – while Embiid is more of a traditional big man. Jokic is also projected for less ownership, another point in his favor.
Value
The Rockets will be without Bruno Fernando and Jae’Sean Tate for the second straight game, and Usman Garuba replaced Fernando in the starting lineup in their last game. He finished with 25 minutes, which he parlayed into 26.5 DraftKings points.
The team refuses to place Alperen Sengun in the starting lineup, and he was also recently added to the injury report due to an illness. If he’s unable to go, Garuba could be looking at a sizable workload at a very cheap price tag. Even if Sengun is active, Garuba should still be able to pay off his $3,500 salary.
Fast Break
Julius Randle is an interesting buy-low option on FanDuel, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He struggled to just 22.2 FanDuel points in his most recent contest, but he only ended up playing 25.3 minutes. His workload is expected to return to normal on Monday, and he’s averaged 1.27 FanDuel points per minute this season.
The Spurs will need the size of Jakob Poeltl to combat the Timberwolves, and Poeltl has always been an outstanding fantasy producer on a per-minute basis. He averaged 1.19 FanDuel points per minute last season, and he’s up to 1.22 so far this season. If he sees a few additional minutes in this matchup, he has the potential for a monster outing.
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