NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Nov. 7): Bennedict Mathurin Breakout Incoming

Monday features a 15-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off his worst game of the season in his last outing, finishing with just 26.75 DraftKings points in 31.8 minutes. I think it’s fair to give him a pass for that one. The Bucks are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and he played slightly fewer minutes than usual in a blowout.

For the most part, SGA has been highly productive when on the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute, leading the Thunder in both points and assists per game. His usage rate also sits at a career-best 32.6%, and he should put that to good use vs. the Pistons. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and they’ve played at the 10th-fastest pace.

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Value

Bradley Beal missed Sunday’s contest after entering health and safety protocols, and Monte Morris saw a nice uptick in playing time in his absence. He racked up 33.2 minutes, and his 18 points were his second-highest mark of the year. Morris ultimately disappointed due to his lack of peripherals – he had just one assist and zero rebounds – but those stand out as significant outliers. He’s averaged 5.1 dimes and 3.5 boards in 27.7 minutes per game this season, so he should improve in both areas on Monday. Overall, Morris has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

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Fast Break

Jamal Murray is starting to percolate for the Nuggets. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in his past three games, and he’s played at least 31.5 minutes in two of them. The lone exception was his last outing, which ultimately turned into a blowout. He should return to around 30 minutes on Monday, and he’s averaged over a fantasy point per minute recently following a slow start to the year. That makes him an excellent option at $5,900 on FanDuel.

Tyrese Haliburton continues to rack up fantasy points for the Pacers, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.92 through his first 10 games on FanDuel. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.31 for Monday’s matchup vs. the Pelicans, and he remains underpriced at just $8,500 on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Terry Rozier returned to the Hornets’ lineup following an extended injury absence, and the team wasted no time throwing him into the fire. He played 36.4 minutes in his first game back and posted a 33.8% usage rate. He only finished with 39.25 DraftKings points, but he shot just 9-24 from the field. Overall, Rozier has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s an excellent positive regression candidate Monday vs. the Wizards. Washington is another team that has struggled defensively to start the year, ranking tied for 23rd in defensive efficiency.

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Value

The Pacers are expected to be without Aaron Nesmith on Monday, while Chris Duarte remains out with an injury. That clears a path for Bennedict Mathurin to potentially draw the first start of his career. Even if he doesn’t enter the starting lineup, he should see a solid spike in playing time, and Mathurin has been phenomenal in his first professional season. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s currently projected for just over 35 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s an excellent combination for someone who costs just $5,900.

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Fast Break

R.J. Barrett got off to a slow start this season, but he’s started to turn things around. He’s racked up at least 33.5 FanDuel points in three straight games, but his salary has barely budged. He’s currently priced at just $6,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%.

Collin Sexton has been rolling for the Jazz recently. He’s scored at least 27.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, which is not surprising since his minutes are on the rise. He’s averaged over a fantasy point per minute this season, and he’s played at least 27.2 minutes in three straight games. His salary across the industry has yet to reflect his increased playing time, so he’s an outstanding value against the Lakers. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and the Jazz are implied for 117.0 points on this slate.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The Raptors are another team with a critical absence on Monday. Pascal Siakam will miss approximately the next two weeks after suffering an adductor injury. All those minutes from head coach Nick Nurse may be starting to take their toll.

With Siakam sidelined, Scottie Barnes will see a significant uptick in value. Siakam leads the team in both usage and assist rate this season, and Barnes has served as one of the team’s primary distributors with Siakam off the floor. He’s increased his production to 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and Barnes played more than 40 minutes with Siakam out on Sunday. He’s projected for another 38 minutes on Monday, and we know that Nurse has no problem running his players into the ground.

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Value

Quentin Grimes is currently questionable for the Knicks, and Cam Reddish would be an interesting value option if he’s ruled out. He started in place of Grimes in the Knicks’ last contest and ultimately finished with 37.1 minutes. He managed just 13.5 DraftKings points in that contest, but he shot just 1-6 from the field. Reddish is far from an elite per-minute producer – he’s averaged 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season – but it’s hard to ignore someone with so much playing time upside at such a cheap price tag.

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Fast Break

Brandon Ingram recently missed some time with an injury, but he’s shown no ill effects in his first games back. He’s racked up at least 37.5 FanDuel points in both contests, yet his salary has actually declined to $7,400. His current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%, making Ingram an elite option.

It’s hard to trust Klay Thompson at the moment, but he’s in a fantastic spot vs. the Kings. The Warriors’ implied team total of 120.75 ranks second on the slate, and Thompson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.24 on FanDuel. His price tag has also dipped to just $5,500, making him an intriguing buy-low option at what should be low ownership.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Rudy Gobert remains out of the lineup due to health and safety protocols, giving Karl-Anthony Towns more appeal than usual. His usage rate is down at just 25.1% this season, his lowest mark since 2018-19. However, that figure skyrockets to 31.4% with Gobert off the floor. He also unsurprisingly sees a bump in his rebound percentage without Gobert, and he’s averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute with the Frenchman off the floor this season.

The Timberwolves draw a matchup with the Knicks on Monday, who have been a much better matchup this season than they were last year. They’re up to eighth in pace after ranking tied for 26th last season, and they’ve dropped off from ninth in defensive efficiency to 14th. There is no shortage of studs on Monday’s slate, but Towns seems like one of the strongest options.

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Value

Sticking with the Timberwolves, Kyle Anderson moved into the starting lineup in place of Gobert on Saturday, and he responded with 35.25 DraftKings points in 30.7 minutes. Anderson has always been an excellent per-minute fantasy producer, and he’s capable of contributing in every area of the box score.

His per-minute production is slightly down this season – he’s averaging just 0.80 DraftKings points per minute – but he should see more than enough playing time for that to matter too much. Anderson is currently projected for more than 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.88 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

Harrison Barnes has had a slow start to the season, but it hasn’t been due to a lack of opportunities. He’s currently projected for more than 35 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a ton of playing time for someone who costs just $4,600 on FanDuel. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.30.

Paying up for Giannis Antetokounmpo is always worth considering. He possesses the top ceiling in fantasy, and he also stands out as one of the best pure values at PF on FanDuel. His $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he ranks fourth at the position in projected Plus/Minus.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

As long as Beal is out of the lineup, Kristaps Porzingis will see a nice bump in fantasy value Monday vs. the Hornets. He didn’t take advantage of Beal’s absence on Sunday, finishing with just 26.0 DraftKings points, but he shot just 3-13 from the field. He also managed just four rebounds, which is well below his season average of 8.2. Porzingis averaged 41.21 DraftKings points in 17 games without Beal last season, so he’s an excellent bounce-back candidate.

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Value

I don’t blame you if you’ve forgotten about Myles Turner. He’s barely played this season after rolling his ankle during pregame warmups in the first game of the year, and injuries have unfortunately been one of the defining factors of Turner’s career. He possesses plenty of talent – very few big men can match his combination of 3-point shooting and rim protection – but he’s been unable to stay on the court.

However, Turner is healthy for the time being and should provide excellent fantasy production. He no longer has to split time with Domantas Sabonis, and he’s averaged 1.19 DKFP per minute this season. Turner has played at least 31.4 minutes in two of his past three games, and he’s scored at least 31.25 DraftKings points in both. That makes him an excellent value at $5,700, and he’s also displayed a ceiling of more than 50 fantasy points.

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Fast Break

Isaiah Hartenstein started in place of Mitchell Robinson in the Knicks’ last game, and he racked up 38.5 minutes of playing time. He finished with 32.5 DraftKings points, which might be a smidge low if he continues to play that much. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute, so he’s capable of taking advantage of his playing time.

If you need to go even cheaper at center, Christian Koloko makes some sense. He’s been a subpar fantasy producer this season, but he’s coming off the best game of his young career on Sunday. He racked up 39.4 FanDuel points in 31 minutes, and while I wouldn’t expect six blocks again, he has a solid chance of paying off his near-minimum salary.