NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Nov. 21): Time For a Poole Party

Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s salary continues to rise, but it has been warranted. He’s been one of the best players in fantasy to start the year, averaging a robust 51.1 DraftKings points per game. His previous career best was 43.2 last season, so he’s made a massive jump in his fifth professional season.

SGA is capable of doing it all on a basketball court. He leads the Thunder was a 32.6% usage rate this season, and he also leads the team in assist rate. Add in 4.6 rebounds and 3.2 blocks + steals per game, and he’s averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute.

He draws a solid matchup vs. the Knicks on Monday. They’re not the same slow-paced, defensive-minded squad they have been in recent years, and SGA racked up 63.25 DraftKings points in his first game vs. the Knicks this season.

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Value

The Warriors will be on the second leg of a back-to-back on Monday, which means Klay Thompson will likely get the night off. It’s a well-deserved day of rest for the veteran, who erupted for 41 points in Sunday’s win over the Rockets.

With Klay out of the lineup, expect Jordan Poole to take over as the team’s starting shooting guard. He’s thrived in that role so far this season, leading the team with a usage rate of 31.8% in three games without Thompson. Poole has racked up 44.75, 36.5, and 52.0 DraftKings points in those outings, making him one of the best plays of the day at just $5,800.

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Fast Break

Mike Conley suffered an injury in the Jazz’s last game, which should open up some additional offensive responsibilities for Jordan Clarkson. Clarkson has already had a solid year for the Jazz this season, averaging 0.97 FanDuel points per minute. He’s moved into the starting lineup after spending the past few seasons as a reserve, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.08 to start the year. Clarkson leads the team with a 29.0% usage rate with Conley off the floor this season, and he’s increased his production to 1.16 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario.

Jalen Suggs has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s cracked 40 DraftKings points in two of them. He remains reasonably priced across the industry, especially in a phenomenal matchup vs. the Pacers. They rank third in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, and Suggs should continue to benefit from the absence of Paolo Banchero and Cole Anthony.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The top of the shooting guard position is not nearly as appealing on DraftKings as it is on FanDuel. Not only does SGA have dual PG/SG eligibility, so does Tyrese Haliburton. He’s played extremely well to start the year, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.63 on FanDuel.

Haliburton is coming off 59.8 FanDuel points in his last outing, which was against this same Magic squad. He did that despite being questionable with an ankle injury, which didn’t appear to slow him down at all. The Pacers’ implied team total of 116.5 ranks third on the slate, so they’re in another great spot to do some damage on Monday.

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Value

The Knicks were without Cam Reddish on Sunday, which allowed Quentin Grimes to move into the starting lineup. He did not disappoint, logging 32.2 minutes and finishing with 30.25 DraftKings points. Grimes did a little bit of everything in that contest, racking up 10 points, eight assists, and five rebounds, giving him multiple avenues for success if Reddish is sidelined again on Monday. If that’s the case, Grimes will be tough to ignore at the absolute minimum.

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Fast Break

Bennedict Mathurin is another potential option for the Pacers, particularly on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute in his rookie year. He hasn’t seen a ton of playing time – he’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models – but that should be enough to pay off his current salary.

The Heat have been insanely shorthanded of late, and we’re still waiting on their injury report for Monday. If they’re thin again, Caleb Martin could be looking at another monster workload. He’s played at least 35 minutes in four straight games, which is a ton of workload for someone who costs just $5,400.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The Magic have been hit hard by injuries to start the year. In addition to Banchero and Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr. is also questionable. If he’s ruled out, it’s not going to leave the team with a ton of NBA-caliber options.

Franz Wagner is one of them. He’s coming off a big game with all three players sidelined Saturday vs. the Pacers, racking up 43.25 DraftKings points in just 30.7 minutes. Wagner has increased his usage rate to a team-high 29.3% with Anthony and Banchero off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.04 DraftKings points per minute.

He draws the same matchup on Monday that he did on Saturday, and the Pacers are one of the best opponents in the league for fantasy purposes. They rank third in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, so Wagner is in a good spot to replicate his production.

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Value

Talen Horton-Tucker is another player who figures to benefit from the Conley injury. He’s always been a capable producer when given the chance to play, and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. He logged 31.5 minutes in the game that Conley exited early, and he’s expected to see a similar workload on Monday.

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Fast Break

R.J. Barrett has been a major disappointment to start the year, but he’s another potential option for the Knicks on this slate. He’s currently projected for just under 36 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute this season. He also draws a nice matchup vs. the Thunder, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.44.

Jalen Williams stands out as a solid value option on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, including a career-high 38.5 DraftKings points in his last outing.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Karl-Anthony Towns is in the midst of one of his worst seasons as a professional. His usage rate has declined to just 24.1%, which is his lowest mark since 2017-18, while his 14.1% rebound rate would be the worst mark of his career. With the addition of Rudy Gobert and the emergence of Anthony Edwards, it’s tough to envision too much growth for KAT moving forward.

However, he’s been priced down to just $8,900 for Monday’s matchup vs. the Heat, and he has the potential to pay off that price tag. Towns has still averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season, which trails only Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum among Monday’s power forwards. Towns is coming off a subpar showing in his last outing, but he had racked up at least 45.25 DraftKings points in seven of his previous nine games. With his price tag dropping more than -$1,000 over the past few weeks, this is a good time to buy low on the talented big man.

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Value

Nikola Jovic is another potential option if the Heat are shorthanded. He’s played at least 30.2 minutes in back-to-back games, even though the team had more available bodies in the frontcourt on Sunday. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight contests, despite shooting just 10-27 from the field. He has some room for improvement Monday vs. the Cavaliers.

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Fast Break

Bol Bol continues to take advantage of his fresh start with the Magic. He’s averaged a stout 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in five straight games. He’s displayed plenty of ceiling as well, scoring at least 42.25 DraftKings points in two of his past five games.

Bobby Portis’ salary makes no sense on FanDuel. All the guy has done this season is return value, posting a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game. He’s coming off 41.7 FanDuel points in his last outing, yet his price has hovered around $6,000 all year. His current price tag comes with a 97% Bargain Rating, making him a phenomenal option.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Jarrett Allen wasn’t really needed on Sunday, playing just 27.2 minutes in a blowout win over the shorthanded Heat. He should pick up a few additional minutes on Monday in an excellent matchup vs. the Hawks. They’ve played at the fourth-fastest pace this season, and they’re just 19th in team rebound rate. That should give Allen plenty of chances to get on the boards, especially if Kevin Love is unable to suit up. He missed the team’s last game, and his status for Monday is currently unknown.

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Value

The Thunder are another team that have bit hit hard by injuries of late. Darius Bazley has been upgraded to questionable, but they’re still without Tre Mann and Aleksej Pokusevski.

That should secure a solid role for Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. He’s coming off 27.5 minutes in his last outing, and he finished with 29.25 DraftKings points. He’s averaged a respectable 0.96 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he can provide excellent value if he sees a comparable workload vs. the Knicks.

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Fast Break

Rudy Gobert is down to $6,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he has some buy-low appeal at that price tag. He hasn’t been quite as productive with the Timberwolves as he was with the Jazz, but he’s still averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute.

Bam Adebayo played just 27 minutes for the Heat on Sunday, but he was highly active while on the floor. He posted a season-high 33.8% usage, and he also posted a 33.3% assist rate. That gives him plenty of upside if Monday’s matchup is more competitive.