NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Nov. 14): Load up on Shorthanded Raptors

Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has blossomed into one of the best fantasy players in the league this season. He’s averaging more than 31 points per game while shooting over 54% from the field, and he also contributes plenty in the peripheral categories. His 32.2% usage rate is the 10th-highest mark in the league, while his 2.1 steals per game rank fourth. Add it all up, and he’s averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute so far this season.

Despite his outstanding production, SGA remains affordable at just $8,900 on DraftKings. He will have to navigate a tough matchup vs. the Celtics, but Boston hasn’t been the same elite defensive team to start the year. They rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, and things don’t figure to get much better as long as Robert Williams is sidelined. The total on this contest sits at 228.5 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.

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Value

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Raptors. They were already playing without Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, and now they’ve ruled out Gary Trent Jr. vs. the Pistons.

That means there’s a chance that Malachi Flynn will move into the starting lineup. Even if he doesn’t, he should be looking at a few additional minutes of playing time. Flynn is a capable per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute with Siakam, VanVleet, and Trent off the floor this season. That gives him massive upside at just $3,200.

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Fast Break

Killian Hayes has had a quiet start to his career, but he’s shown signs of improvement in his third professional season. He’s racked up at least 33.0 DraftKings points and 34.2 minutes in back-to-back games, and he drew his first start of the year in his last outing. He split the point guard minutes with Cory Joseph earlier in the year, but Joseph has played 10.7 minutes or fewer in each of his past six games. Hayes’ arrow is pointing up, and he’s a steal at just $4,400 on DraftKings.

It has not been a pretty start to the season for Reggie Jackson, but he’s started to turn things around. He’s scored at least 24.0 FanDuel points in two of his past three games, and he’s coming off 33.3 minutes in his last outing. Jackson should be looking at another expanded workload with John Wall sidelined, and his $4,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He also draws one of the best possible matchups vs. the Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.24.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Cade Cunningham remains sidelined for the Pistons, so Jaden Ivey will have to pick up some of the offensive slack. He’s increased his usage rate to 32.9% with Cunningham off the floor this season – the top mark on the team – resulting in an average of 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 27.1% in back-to-back games, and he finished with 35.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. Ivey has hit that threshold in three of his past four games, and the lone exception was a game where he played just 25 minutes. As long as he gets his usual minute allotment on Monday, he’s a great bet to pay off his current salary.

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Value

The Warriors are on the second leg of a back-to-back on Monday, and head coach Steve Kerr previously said that Klay Thompson might not play in a back-to-back all year. That means Jordan Poole should be expected to take his spot in the starting lineup. Poole has averaged 25.0 points, 6.5 assists, and 1.5 rebounds in his two previous starts this season, making him an excellent option at just $5,800 on DraftKings.

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Fast Break

Terry Rozier’s fantasy stock took a hit with the return of LaMelo Ball in the Hornets’ last contest, but he’s still worth some consideration on FanDuel. His $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%, and his matchup with the Magic results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.34.

The Spurs continue to get solid production from Devin Vassell, who has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season. He was limited to just 31.3 minutes in a blowout win over the shorthanded Bucks on Friday, but he’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models. He should be able to pay off his current salary with that much playing time.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Most people will look to Scottie Barnes in the Raptors’ frontcourt, and he’s certainly a viable option. He’s served as a point-forward with VanVleet and Siakam out recently, but that hasn’t exactly helped him from a fantasy perspective. His scoring numbers are down, and he’s averaged just 0.86 DKFP per minute with both players off the floor.

That said, I prefer OG Anunoby. Anunoby hasn’t seen as big of a bump to his peripherals, but he’s served as the team’s top scoring threat. He’s increased his usage rate to 27.6% with Siakam and VanVleet off the court, and that figure rises to 29.0 without Trent as well. Anunoby has been a steady contributor of late, scoring at least 38.0 DraftKings points in seven of his past nine games, and he should be able to do it again vs. the Pistons.

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Value

Otto Porter is another option to consider for the Raptors. He moved into the starting lineup in their last game and responded with 20.25 DraftKings points in 26.5 minutes. Porter hasn’t had his best start on a per-minute basis, averaging just 0.76 DraftKings points per minute this year, but he has historically been outstanding in that department. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and Porter has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.03 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

While I prefer Anunoby to Barnes on DraftKings, Barnes is the clear preferred choice on FanDuel. His $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%, and he’s a prime candidate for some positive regression. He’s shot just 17-54 (31.5%) from the field over his past four games, but he was a 48.3% shooter as a rookie.

Paul George should continue to lead the Clippers in usage with Wall and Kawhi Leonard sidelined. That hasn’t resulted in much fantasy value – he’s scored 47.2 FanDuel points or fewer in six straight games – but he has plenty of upside vs. the Rockets. He’s also one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo has missed three of the Bucks’ past four games, but he is probable to return to the lineup Monday vs. the Hawks. Giannis has been as dominant as ever when on the floor this season, averaging 31.8 points, 12.2 boards, and 5.3 assists per game. Overall, he’s averaged a career-best 60.3 DraftKings points through his first nine contests.

As long as he’s able to suit up, he should be busy vs. Atlanta. Jrue Holiday remains out with an ankle injury, so Giannis will have to do even more than usual. He’s posted a 37.8% usage rate and a 59.1% assist rate with Holiday off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.82 DraftKings points per minute. No one else on this slate can even sniff that number. His increased assist upside gives him a greater chance than usual at a triple-double, and a massive fantasy performance is not out of the question.

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Value

With the Raptors so banged up, Thaddeus Young also moved into the starting lineup in their last game. He ultimately finished with 27.75 DKFP in 34 minutes, and he will provide massive value if he continues to play that much. He’s historically been a strong per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 32.77 DKFP in 22 games with at least 30 minutes since 2019-20.

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Fast Break

Draymond Green hasn’t been quite as good on a per-minute basis this season as he has been in years past, but his average of 0.93 DraftKings points per minute is respectable. He has a bit more upside than usual Monday vs. the Spurs, who rank third in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. The Warriors rank first in pace, so this game should feature plenty of possessions.

The return of Giannis does slightly diminish the appeal of Bobby Portis Jr., but he should still see a slightly higher usage rate than usual with Holiday out of the lineup. He’s averaged 1.14 FanDuel points per minute this season, and that figure increases to 1.18 with Holiday off the floor. He’s projected for just under 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and his $5,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Bam Adebayo got off to a slow start this season, but he’s started to turn things around. He put together one of his best performances of the year in his last outing, finishing with 51.75 DKFP in 33.1 minutes. He racked up 24 points, 15 rebounds, and four assists, which is the type of balanced stat line that Adebayo is capable of on a nightly basis.

He’ll draw a tough matchup Monday vs. the Suns – they rank second in the league in defensive efficiency – but he would still be worth considering if Tyler Herro is sidelined. Herro is currently questionable after missing the past three games, and Adebayo leads the team in usage in games without Herro this season.

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Value

It’s hard to get too excited about Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. The Thunder have made a habit of using different starting lineups this season, so Robinson-Earl has bounced between the starting lineup and the bench. That makes his role volatile, playing as many as 30.7 minutes and as few as five minutes this season.

That said, JRE’s highest minute count came on Sunday, and he benefited from Darius Bazley missing his second-straight contest. Bazley’s status for Monday is currently unknown, but JRE would become a useful value option if he sits. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of an expanded workload.

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Fast Break

Alperen Sengun finally busted in his last game, snapping a streak of nine straight games with a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel. That said, his struggles were due solely to foul trouble. He fouled out in just under 19 minutes, which will happen to a big man from time to time. He should return to his usual workload on Monday, and the fantasy points should follow.

The Magic have two viable center options in Wendell Carter Jr. and Bol Bol. Both players benefit from an excellent matchup vs. the Hornets, and both players have a Bargain Rating of at least 93% on FanDuel. Bol has been slightly better on a per-minute basis, while Carter should play more minutes.