NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Mar. 6): Damian Lillard is Locked In

Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Damian Lillard is priced as expensive as he ever has been, but he’s been worth every penny of late. He’s scored at least 52.0 DraftKings points in eight of his past nine games, and he’s had plenty of ceiling performances during that stretch. That includes a massive 93.0 DraftKings points against the Rockets, but he has three other outings with at least 63.5 DraftKings points.

Lillard is in a great spot for another ceiling game on Monday. He draws an elite matchup vs. the Pistons, who have slipped to 28th in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 117.5 ranks fourth on the slate.

More importantly, the Blazers are still dealing with a host of key injuries. Jusuf Nurkic remains out of the lineup, while Anfernee Simons’ status is TBD. Lillard has increased his usage rate by +8.2% with Nurkic, Simons, and Josh Hart off the floor this season, resulting in an elite 1.78 DraftKings points per minute. To put that in perspective, Nikola Jokic – who is expected to win his third consecutive MVP – has averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute this season. As long as Simons remains sidelined, Lillard is worthy of this lofty price tag.

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Value

Since Tyrese Maxey returned to the lineup following an injury absence, he has spent most of his time coming off the bench. However, he’s started each of the team’s past three games, and he’s responded with three big performances. He’s scored at least 26 points in each, and he’s racked up 32.25, 38.0, and 46.5 DraftKings points in those contests. Ultimately, Maxey has averaged 36 minutes, 23.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in 25 games as a starter this season. If he can provide that type of production on Monday, he’ll be well worth his $5,500 price tag.

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Fast Break

It’s put up or shut up time for the Raptors, so expect them to lean heavily on their stars down the stretch. Fred VanVleet is coming off 40.4 minutes on Saturday, and he responded with 59.8 FanDuel points. He could be looking at a comparable workload vs. the Nuggets, and his $8,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.

Killian Hayes is currently questionable, but if he’s in the lineup, he’s worth considering on DraftKings. His $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%, and Hayes has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six games. He’s not the best scorer, but he makes up for it with his work in the peripheral categories.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Shooting guard is definitely the weakest position on Monday’s slate, particularly on DraftKings. Not as many point guards have shooting guard eligibility on that site, leaving only four players priced above $5,900.

Of that group, Tyler Herro grades out best in our NBA Models. Herro has carried a heavy workload for the Heat recently, racking up at least 38.3 minutes in back-to-back games. He went off for 50.5 DraftKings points vs. the Knicks two games ago before stumbling back to Earth with 34.5 DraftKings points on Saturday.

That contest was against the Hawks, and he’ll get another crack at Atlanta on Monday. It’s a strong matchup, with Atlanta playing at the fifth-fastest pace this season. Herro should also continue to benefit from the absence of Kyle Lowry. He’s seen a team-high 37.5 minutes per game in 16 games without Lowry this season, resulting in an average of 36.53 DraftKings points.

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Value

Cam Reddish is another player who figures to benefit if Simons remains out of the lineup. Reddish has struggled to find consistent playing time in the NBA, and he lost favor in both Atlanta and New York. He was acquired by the Blazers before the trade deadline, and he has been given a new lease on life. In his eight games with the Blazers, he’s shooting a career-best 47.9% from the field and 38.2% from 3-point range, resulting in an average of 24.75 DraftKings points per game. He’s scored at least 22.0 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games, and he’s gone for at least 30.75 in three of his past six. That includes his most recent contest, where he played 37.1 minutes. Reddish would be looking at another expanded workload if Simons is sidelined, and he could do some damage vs. the Pistons.

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Fast Break

Shaedon Sharpe is another potential option for the Blazers. He isn’t projected for quite as many minutes as Reddish, but he’s significantly cheaper at $3,500 on DraftKings. Sharpe has also seen a nice uptick in production recently, increasing his fantasy output to 0.83 DraftKings points per minute.

C.J. McCollum warrants some stud consideration on FanDuel, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain rating of 83%. He’s racked up at least 40.7 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and his matchup vs. the Kings comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.72.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Brandon Ingram is coming off one of his worst games in recent memory Friday vs. the Warriors, finishing with just 29.25 DraftKings points in 37.6 minutes. Still, his fantasy arrow is still pointing up. He’s been significantly more aggressive offensively since returning to the lineup on Jan. 25th, increasing his usage rate to 35.4%. His usage rate was at just 26.9% before that stretch, so he’s unsurprisingly seen an uptick in scoring.

Ingram is in a fantastic bounce-back spot Monday vs. the Kings. While Sacramento has won a lot of basketball games this season, they have still been one of the best possible matchups for fantasy purposes. They’ve played at the sixth-fastest pace and rank merely 26th in defensive efficiency, so their games tend to be extremely high-scoring. The total on this contest currently sits at 237.0 points, which is the top mark on the slate.

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Value

Ingram isn’t the only viable option in the Pelicans’ frontcourt given the team’s injury situation. Zion Williamson and Larry Nance Jr. both remain out with long-term ailments, while Josh Richardson has been ruled out for personal reasons. Jonas Valanciunas is also questionable, so the team doesn’t have a ton of able bodies in the frontcourt.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the Pelicans have leaned a bit heavier on Trey Murphy of late. He’s racked up 37.8 and 32.0 minutes in his past two contests, and he’s responded with 24.0 and 27.25 DraftKings points. Murphy didn’t even shoot particularly well in those contests, knocking down 9-24 shots from the field and 6-19 from 3-point range. Murphy isn’t the greatest per-minute producer, but he should be able to make up for it through sheer volume in an elite matchup.

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Fast Break

Jimmy Butler has put together some excellent performances of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on FanDuel. He’s tallied at least 56.1 FanDuel points in two of those contests, so he has an excellent ceiling at just $8,800 on FanDuel. He’s eligible at both forward spots on that site, and his salary results in a Bargain Rating of 86%. Our PrizePicks simulations are also bullish on Butler getting to at least 23 points:

The only thing that can stop Hamidou Diallo is a lack of playing time. He’s struggled to find the court for most of the year, but he’s been a sizable part of the team’s rotation of late. He’s currently projected for more than 27 minutes in our NBA Models, and Diallo has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Historically, Diallo has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.08 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

It may feel odd to consider Marvin Bagley a stud, but it’s warranted on Monday’s slate. Bagley will always have the burden of being the player drafted before Luka Doncic, but he has always been a capable fantasy producer. He’s taken things to another level recently, racking up 1.40 DraftKings points per minute in four games since returning to the lineup following an injury absence.

The Pistons’ frontcourt is also decimated by injuries at the moment. Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart both remain out of the lineup, while the newly acquired James Wiseman is questionable. If Wiseman is unable to suit up, the Pistons will have no choice but to give Bagley a heavy workload. He racked up 34.1 minutes in their last contest and responded with 48.25 DraftKings points. That’s the kind of ceiling that he provides with 30+ minutes, so he’s way too cheap at $5,500.

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Value

Jordan Nwora displayed an ability to score during his tenure with the Bucks, but it was nearly impossible for him to find minutes. Fortunately, that has changed with the Pacers. Nwora has played at least 21.4 minutes in his past four contests, and he’s logged at least 26.3 minutes in two of them. He’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in each outing, including a game with 39.0 DraftKings points. Overall, he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to do damage.

Nwora remains massively underpriced on DraftKings for Monday’s matchup vs. the Celtics, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. With the Pacers having nothing to play for, expect them to take a long look at Nwora down the stretch.

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Fast Break

Keegan Murray is another strong value on DraftKings, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He was limited to less than 20 minutes in the team’s last contest, but he had played at least 31.7 minutes in each of his previous four. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests, so this seems like a nice buy-low opportunity.

Most of the cheap forwards are better values on DraftKings on Monday, but Caleb Martin is an exception. His salary was as high as $5,600 on FanDuel three games ago, but he’s down to $4,800 for Monday’s matchup vs. the Hawks. He’s projected for around 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s increased his production to 0.83 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

It feels like Joel Embiid and Jokic have been available on the same slate virtually all season, leaving DFS players with a difficult decision at the top of the pricing spectrum. While Jokic has been the better option for most of the year, Embiid gets the nod on Monday.

Embiid has hit a tiny dry spell recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games. However, it’s not like he’s been a huge bust in those contests, and he scored at least 60.5 DraftKings points in his three games prior. He remains one of the league leaders in usage and scoring, and he’s capable of racking up peripherals as well.

Embiid draws an outstanding matchup Monday vs. the Pacers. They rank 10th in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 120.0 ranks second on the slate.

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Value

The Celtics haven’t asked too much of Mike Muscala since acquiring him at the trade deadline, but that figures to change on Monday. Robert Williams is going to miss 7-10 days with a hamstring injury, while Al Horford figures to rest after playing nearly 50 minutes on Sunday. That doesn’t leave the team with a ton of options at center against a Cavaliers’ squad that plays two traditional big men.

Muscala has been a solid contributor when given the chance to play significant minutes. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he racked up 31.0 DraftKings points in his only start with the Celtics. He played 43.8 minutes in that contest, and while I wouldn’t expect that much playing time vs. the Cavaliers, he’s certainly worth considering at a near-minimum price tag.

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Fast Break

Trendon Watford has gotten the opportunity to play a bit more for the Blazers of late. He’s played at least 22.1 minutes in five straight games, and he’s averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That doesn’t give him a tremendous ceiling, but he’s a good bet to return value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Bam Adebayo is coming off a huge performance in his last contest, finishing with 57.7 FanDuel points. That stands out as a bit of an outlier – he had posted a negative Plus/Minus in his five previous games – but he’ll face the same Hawks’ squad on Monday. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.40, and Adebayo is priced at a slight discount at $8,700 on FanDuel. He’s also projected for less than 10% ownership, making him an interesting tournament pivot.