NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Mar. 27): Trust the Tanking Blazers

Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Mavericks are in a little bit of trouble. They’re currently on the outside looking in for the play-in tournament, and while they’ll have some opportunities to make up ground, they’re going to be without Luka Doncic on Monday. He’ll serve a one-game suspension after picking up his 16th technical of the year, leaving the team without their top offensive option.

Kyrie Irving has also missed plenty of time recently, but it seems like the team has no choice but to push him on the second leg of a back-to-back. He has unsurprisingly seen a boost in value in games without Doncic since joining the Mavericks, increasing his usage rate to a team-high 32.8%. He’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in those contests, and he’s played at least 38.5 minutes in four of his past six games.

Irving also draws an excellent matchup vs. the Pacers. They rank tied for first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, making them one of the best teams to target for fantasy purposes.

Editor’s Note — The NBA has rescinded Doncic’s 16th technical foul, making him eligible to suit up vs. the Pacers. That’s a major negative for the rest of the Mavericks’ fantasy options, particularly Irving.

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Value

With Jrue Holiday ruled out for Monday’s matchup vs. the Pistons, Jevon Carter should take on a much larger role in the Bucks’ offense. He’s been an elite value option in games without Holiday this season, averaging 26.69 DraftKings points in 30.5 minutes per game. That kind of production is more than enough to justify a selection, especially given his 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. There is some blowout concern vs. the Pistons, but the Bucks also lead the slate with a 125.25-point implied team total.

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Fast Break

Jalen Brunson is currently questionable for the Knicks, but he’s an elite buy-low candidate if he’s able to suit up. His salary has decreased by a full -$1,000 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and his current $7,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends, and Brunson has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.49 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool). The Knicks also have way more offensive upside than usual vs. the Rockets, with their 122.0-point implied team total representing a massive increase from their season average (115.3).

Patrick Beverley stands out as the preferred value option on FanDuel, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. Beverley has increased his production to 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for around 30 minutes Monday vs. the Clippers.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Blazers were one of the biggest surprises of the early season, but they have completely collapsed over the second half of the year. A lot of their wounds seem self-inflicted, with the team looking to improve their draft position instead of contend for a postseason spot. With that in mind, expect to see Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic all out of the lineup once again vs. the Pelicans.

As long as that’s the case, Shaedon Sharpe stands out as one of the best backcourt options on the slate. The talented 19-year-old rookie has gotten the opportunity to spread his wings for the shorthanded Blazers of late, scoring at least 34.5 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s increased his production to 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with all of the currently unavailable members of the Blazers off the floor this season, and he’s played at least 35.3 minutes in three straight games. His price tag has increased drastically over that time frame, but he’s still too cheap at $6,200 on DraftKings.

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Value

As long as the Blazers continue to sit their best players, they’re going to be the primary source of value on Monday’s slate. Keon Johnson isn’t expected to see nearly as much playing time as Sharpe, but he’s been the superior per-minute producer this season. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.06 over the past month. He’s averaged better than a fantasy point per minute in his past two contests, where he racked up 31.0 and 22.25 DraftKings points against the Bulls and Thunder. There’s no reason he can’t do it again vs. the Pelicans.

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Fast Break

Khris Middleton should also benefit from the absence of Holiday. He hasn’t seen a huge usage bump with Holiday off the floor this season, but he has increased his production to 1.18 FanDuel points per minute. Middleton also stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Bennedict Mathurin has hit the dreaded “rookie wall.” His fantasy production has cratered over the past month, averaging just 0.62 DraftKings points per minute. Still, he’s projected for more than 31 minutes at just $4,800 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s a solid buy-low target.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

While the Blazers’ offense is going to get plenty of love on Monday, don’t sleep on the Pelicans. The Blazers’ defense has been absolute trash since the All-Star break, allowing the fourth-most points per 100 possessions. They’ve also played at an above-average pace, so this is a great spot for the Pelicans to point some points on the scoreboard.

Brandon Ingram has been scoring the ball extremely well for the Pels of late, finishing with at least 30 points in four of his past five games. He’s also provided excellent non-scoring numbers during that stretch, including one triple-double. Add it all up, and he’s increased his production to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. With the Pelicans fighting for a postseason spot, expect Ingram to continue to carry a heavy workload.

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Value

Of all the Blazers’ options on this slate, Nassir Little stands out as the best. Unlike some of his teammates, he hasn’t seen the same drastic increase in salary of late. He’s still priced at just $3,800, which drastically undersells his role for the team at the current time. He’s coming off 31.4 minutes in his last contest, and he responded with 36.0 DraftKings points.

That might be a bit of an outlier – Little has averaged just 0.73 DraftKings points per minute for the year – but he posted an elite 33.0% usage rate in that contest. If he’s going to continue to operate as one of the team’s top scoring threats, he’s a near must-play at $3,800.

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Fast Break

Tim Hardaway Jr. is another member of the Mavericks who will have to pick up the slack sans Doncic. He’s seen a sizable bump in usage and fantasy production with Doncic off the floor this season, and he’s coming off 28.5 FanDuel points across 36.5 minutes on Sunday. He’s another elite value on FanDuel, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Anthony Edwards is an interesting contrarian option for tournaments. He should carry single-digit ownership on this slate, even though he has an elite matchup vs. the Kings. That game leads the slate with a 239.0-point total, and no other contest is at greater than 234.0. Edwards should also see plenty of playing time with the Timberwolves fighting for a spot in the playoffs.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Monday’s matchup between the Bucks and Pistons could get ugly quick. The Bucks are currently listed as 17.5-point road favorites against a Pistons team with nothing to play for. Milwaukee was in a similar spot last week vs. the Spurs, and they ended up winning by 36 points.

The Bucks have played in a bunch of blowouts of late, which has limited Giannis Antetokounmpo’s fantasy production. He’s racked up 26.6 minutes or less in three of his past five games, and he’s scored 54.5 DraftKings points or fewer in four of them. However, Giannis remains the best fantasy contributor in the league on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is easily the top mark on Monday’s slate. Giannis still managed 54.5 DraftKings points in the team’s easy win over the Spurs last week, and while that wasn’t quite enough to return value, the fact that he did it in less than 24 minutes is remarkable. He has a tremendous ceiling if he plays around 30 minutes against the Pistons, and if this game does stay competitive, no one on the slate can match his ceiling. The fact that Holiday has been ruled out also doesn’t hurt.

Editor’s Note — Giannis has been ruled out vs. the Pistons, opening up plenty of value with the rest of the Bucks’ roster. Middleton becomes an even stronger option (as long as he isn’t also ruled out), while Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis also join the discussion in the frontcourt. Make sure to check out our NBA Models for full updates for Milwaukee and the rest of Monday’s options.

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Value

The Suns need all the help they can get on the wing at the moment, so they’ve turned to T.J. Warren in recent games. He’s played at least 26.8 minutes in back-to-back games, and Warren is a capable producer when given the opportunity. He’s responded with 25.1 and 31.6 FanDuel points in those contests, and he remains very fairly priced at just $4,200 on FanDuel.

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Fast Break

Karl-Anthony Towns is back for the Timberwolves, and they ramped him up to 32.1 minutes in his second contest. He wasn’t particularly good in that outing, finishing with just 27.5 FanDuel points, but it bodes well for his production moving forward. Towns has always been an elite per-minute producer, and his playing time should only continue to trend up. He’s a solid option vs. the Kings, particularly given his 85% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Jordan Nwora has gotten the opportunity to play consistent minutes with the Pacers recently, and he’s taken full advantage. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for around 26 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s enough to make him viable at $4,900, especially with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.43 vs. the Mavs.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Christian Wood has had an up-and-down season in his first year with the Mavericks. He’s spent most of the year coming off the bench, and there were stretches where he played less than 20 minutes per game. However, with Doncic currently out of the picture, Wood is going to have to do some heavy lifting vs. the Pacers. He played 34.0 and 29.4 minutes in his last two games without Luka, and he racked up 44.75 and 38.75 DraftKings points. For the year, he’s increased his production to 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in games without Doncic. If he can get to 30 minutes vs. the Pacers, he has tremendous upside for his price tag.

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Value

I debated writing about someone like Mitchell Robinson for this spot just to end the Blazers’ monotony, but that would be disingenuous. Drew Eubanks is currently projected for around eight more fantasy points than Robinson in our NBA Models, and he’s -$500 cheaper. It may feel boring to keep hammering the Blazers, but it’s the correct decision for cash games on today’s slate.

Eubanks should serve as the team’s primary center if Nurkic is out, and he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off 32.7 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 38.0 DraftKings points.

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Fast Break

Jalen Duren is a very intriguing play at $5,000 on DraftKings. His price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he’s averaged a blistering 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His playing time has been extremely inconsistent, but he’s played at least 24.5 minutes in two of his past three games. If he gets back to that level vs. the Bucks, he has a good chance to return value.

Joel Embiid is questionable for the 76ers, but expect him to do everything possible to be out there vs. the Nuggets. He has been very vocal about wanting to be the MVP, and beating Nikola Jokic in a head-to-head matchup will go a long way in deciding this year’s award. Embiid has also been phenomenal recently, averaging 1.76 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he would be even busier than usual if James Harden is unable to play through a questionable tag of his own.