NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Mar. 20): Shorthanded Hornets Providing Value

Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Hornets and Pacers will square off in what should be a very fantasy-friendly matchup on Monday. Both of these teams rank in the top eight in pace this season, and both squares are in the bottom 11 in terms of defensive efficiency. The Hornets will also be without LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams, and Cody Martin, so the remaining players all stand out as appealing options.

Terry Rozier should be one of their top contributors. He’s coming off a poor showing in his last outing, racking up just 29.0 DraftKings points in a 39-point loss to the 76ers, but he had scored at least 39.25 DraftKings points in his five previous games. In general, Rozier has seen a +2.0% usage bump in 28 games without Melo this season – the second-highest mark on the team – and he’s responded with an average of 38.57 DraftKings points per game.

Rozier’s price tag crept above $8,000 last week, but he’s back down to $7,900 for an outstanding matchup. That makes him an excellent buy-low candidate.

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Value

Dennis Smith Jr. has always been an excellent fantasy producer when given the opportunity, but minutes have been hard for him to come by in recent years. However, he’s gotten the chance to play extended minutes with LaMelo sidelined of late, and Smith has racked up 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He could easily exceed that figure vs. the Pacers, and Smith has returned positive value in five straight games. He’s had at least 30.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three contests, and he’s played at least 31.7 minutes in all three games. Those are all good signs for his prospects in this matchup.

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Fast Break

Tyus Jones remains priced at a discount on FanDuel, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s scored at least 36.4 FanDuel points in back-to-back contests, despite playing just 30.2 minutes in a blowout win on Saturday. He’s projected for more than 34 minutes in our NBA Models for Monday’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves, and he’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

The Warriors will be on the road on Monday, and they have been a disaster in that situation this season. However, their struggles have been on the defensive end, and their offense should feast against a terrible Rockets squad. They’re currently implied for 124.25 points, which is the top mark on the slate. Steph Curry is priced under $10,000 on DraftKings for the first time since November, so he’s definitely a viable target in this matchup.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Grizzlies are still playing without Ja Morant, so Bane should continue to serve as the team’s top scorer. He could take on an even larger role Monday vs. the Mavericks with Jaren Jackson Jr.’s status currently up in the air. He’s questionable with a calf injury, and Bane has increased his usage rate by +2.8% and his assist rate by +8.1% with Morant and Jackson off the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and he should be locked in for mid-30s minutes against the Mavs.

Bane has faced the Mavericks twice recently, and he’s had outstanding results in both contests. He racked up 45.25 DraftKings points across 34.7 minutes on Mar. 11, and he followed that up with 43.5 DraftKings points over 29.2 minutes last Monday. He was priced at around $8,500 for both contests, so he’s a strong option at just $7,800 on this slate.

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Value

The Jazz are currently playing without Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, and they traded away Mike Conley before the deadline. That has opened the door for Ochai Agbaji to move into the starting lineup and play a solid handful of minutes. He’s not the greatest fantasy producer – he’s averaged 0.59 DraftKings points per minute for the year – but he’s increased his production to 0.68 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, so he should be able to pay off his $3,800 salary through sheer volume.

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Fast Break

Jalen Green’s production has trended upward for the Rockets, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games on DraftKings. That includes at least 44.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’ll have a chance for another strong performance against a Warriors squad that has allowed 124.5 points per game on the road this season, the worst mark in the league.

In addition to being shorthanded, the Jazz also draw an excellent matchup vs. the Kings. They rank 10th in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, and this game leads the slate with a 240.0-point total. That keeps Talen Horton-Tucker squarely on the DFS radar. He’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 35.9 FanDuel points in four of his past five games.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Kelly Oubre Jr. is living his best life right now. He loves to shoot the basketball, and with Ball out of the picture, the coast is clear for Oubre to fire at will. He’s launched at least 15 shots in seven of his past eight games, and he’s averaged 17.5 shots and 7.3 3-point attempts over that stretch.

Oubre doesn’t provide much in the other categories, so he has a wide range of outcomes on most nights. That said, he has plenty of upside when his shot is falling. He’s scored at least 36.75 DraftKings points in six of his past eight contests, including a game with 50.5. That gives him a decent floor and solid upside at his current price tag.

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Value

Anthony Edwards suffered an ankle injury on Friday, and head coach Chris Finch said he didn’t know how long he would be sidelined. Edwards is officially questionable for this matchup, but it seems unlikely he’ll suit up given the severity of the injury.

Taurean Prince moved into the starting lineup in the Timberwolves’ last game, and he played exactly 30 minutes. He wasn’t particularly effective with his playing time, finishing with just 8.0 DraftKings points, but he has the potential for a much better performance vs. the Knicks. He’s averaged 0.71 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.47 (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

Kyle Anderson hit a stumbling block in his last game, but he’s still averaged an outstanding +8.94 Plus/Minus over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s been a nightly triple-double threat over the past two weeks, and he’s accomplished that feat twice in his past four games. That gives him a solid ceiling at his current price tag across the industry.

Buddy Hield is priced at just $6,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he has the potential to fill it up from 3-point range on any given evening. He has a bit more upside than usual given the plus matchup vs. the Hornets.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The power forward position is a bit light on studs on Monday, especially with Jackson and Lauri Markkanen both listed as questionable. Randle is the most expensive option, and he has been a reliable producer for most of the year. However, his numbers have taken a bit of a hit recently, and Randle has failed to return value in five of his past six games.

That’s caused his price tag to dip to just $9,200 on DraftKings vs. the Timberwolves, making him an interesting buy-low option. The Timberwolves represent a massive pace-up spot for the Knicks, who have played at the third-slowest pace this season. Minnesota has also listed both Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid as questionable, so they could be pretty thin on the interior.

Randle has also proven that $9,200 is simply too cheap of a price tag for him. He’s been priced below $9,500 in 30 previous contests this season, and he’s responded with an average Plus/Minus of +2.93.

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Value

P.J. Washington’s price tag spiked as high as $6,700 last week on DraftKings, but he’s down to just $5,800 for Monday’s matchup vs. the Pacers. That is simply too cheap. He’s seen a +1.8% usage bump with Ball off the floor this season, and he’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He hasn’t been particularly effective of late, but he’s shot just 17-41 from the field over his past three games. With some better shooting luck, he should be able to provide significant value at his current price tag.

Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations also like Washington’s fantasy prospects in this matchup:

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Fast Break

The Timberwolves’ injury situation will be important to monitor. Reid would become almost a must-play if he is able to suit up and Gobert is sidelined, but he would still have some appeal even if Gobert is active. He’s averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he racked up 28.0 DraftKings points in just 19.9 minutes on Saturday. He’s massively underpriced at $4,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Draymond Green isn’t the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of contributing in every category. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his price tag has dipped to $6,500 after peaking at $7,700 earlier this month. That makes him a very reasonable option in a juicy matchup.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic opened the door a crack for the MVP award with the Nuggets’ recent slide, and Joel Embiid has kicked the door off its hinges. He’s now considered the favorite to take home the hardware, and the 76ers have a chance to get the top seed in the East. Embiid has racked up at least 31 points in nine straight games, even though the 76ers have played in plenty of blowouts. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.76 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among Monday’s players by a wide margin.

The Bulls are a decent matchup for centers, but Embiid is absolutely matchup-proof at this point. The bigger question is if the Bulls can keep this game close. The 76ers have won their past two games by at least 20 points, which has kept Embiid’s fantasy numbers in check. They’re currently 8.5-point home favorites vs. the Bulls, and as long as this game doesn’t turn into a blowout, expect Embiid to continue to deliver some of the best production in fantasy.

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Value

Mitchell Robinson’s price tag has dipped by roughly -$1,000 over the past week on DraftKings, and his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. His minutes aren’t the most reliable, but he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary. Robinson has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so mid-20s minutes should be enough to return value. Anything more than that is just gravy.

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Fast Break

Myles Turner doesn’t get the same consistent workload as most of the centers in his price range, but he provides elite per-minute production. He’s averaged 1.28 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he has more upside than usual Monday vs. the Hornets. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers this season, so this is a potential eruption spot.

Alperen Sengun was mired in a bit of a slump, but he has started to turn things around. He’s scored at least 37.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he’s played at least 31 minutes in four straight contests. Sengun has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute this season, so that’s very encouraging for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.60 vs. the Warriors, and his $6,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.