NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Jan. 2): Caris LeVert is a DraftKings Lock

Happy New Year! Monday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

It’s hard to call anyone priced above $12,000 a value, but Luka Doncic has still been one of the best values in basketball of late. He’s taken his game to another level over his past five contests, and he’s scored at least 81.0 DraftKings points in four of them. That includes a ridiculous 110.75 DraftKings points vs. the Knicks, becoming the first player in NBA history with a 60-20-10 triple-double.

With the way Doncic is rolling right now, fade him at your own risk vs. the Rockets. Houston remains one of the most favorable matchups in fantasy, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency. Luka torched the Rockets for 81.0 DKFP in 34.3 minutes last Thursday, and there’s no reason that he can’t do it again.

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Value

Cory Joseph played more than 28 minutes in the Pistons’ last contest, and he should continue to see a boost in minutes with Killian Hayes suspended. Joseph is currently projected for 23.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.19 (per the Trends tool). He doesn’t bring the highest ceiling to the table, but he’s one of the top ways to jam multiple studs into your lineup.

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Fast Break

Once again, LaMelo Ball stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.78 over his past 10 contests, and his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. The Hornets have also played at the fastest pace in the league since Melo returned to the lineup, so they have plenty of upside vs. the Lakers.

Tre Jones stands out as a solid midrange option. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on FanDuel, and he’s racked up at least 32.3 minutes in back-to-back contests. He draws an excellent matchup Monday vs. the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.41 on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Warriors continue to play without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins, and they’re going to be even more shorthanded on Monday. The team will be without Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman, and JaMychal Green, so there are plenty of minutes available in a juicy matchup vs. the Hawks. This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 237.0 points, and the 1.5-point spread suggests it should be a competitive affair.

Jordan Poole hasn’t provided a ton of fantasy value of late, but it hasn’t been due to a lack of effort. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 40.2% in six of his past seven games, but he hasn’t been particularly efficient as a scorer. However, in his two games with a field goal percentage of at least 50% in that stretch, he’s posted 55.25 and 55.75 DraftKings points. That gives Poole an outstanding ceiling when his shot is falling, so he’s underpriced at $8,200.

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Value

The Cavaliers were without point guard Darius Garland in their last matchup, which allowed Caris LeVert to move into the starting lineup. He took full advantage, finishing with 39.25 DraftKings points in 37.3 minutes. He also had more than 30 DraftKings points in his last contest, and he has been a strong producer when given the chance to play consistent minutes this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.2% with Garland off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.88 DKFP per minute. With Garland likely sidelined again vs. the Bulls, LeVert stands out as one of the best values of the day.

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Fast Break

Donovan Mitchell was a disappointment in his last contest, but overall, he’s been very good with Garland off the floor this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.0% in that scenario, resulting in an average of 1.21 FanDuel points per minute. His ownership could be decreased after failing vs. the Bulls on Saturday, making him an excellent bounce-back target.

Alec Burks is another strong target in the Pistons’ backcourt. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s scored at least 27.25 DraftKings points in four straight games. That includes an outing with 49.5 DraftKings points, so he provides a nice combination of floor and ceiling with Hayes sidelined.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James continues to a like a fine wine. He’s in the midst of his 20th professional season, and he delivered a huge performance on his 38th birthday on Friday. He racked up 47 points, 10 boards, and nine assists, bringing his fantasy total to 76.0 DraftKings points for the evening. With Anthony Davis expected to miss at least a month, James is going to have to continue to do most of the heavy lifting to try to get the Lakers back to the playoffs.

LeBron is in a fantastic spot Monday vs. the Hornets. This game leads the slate with a total of 242.5 points, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 120.5 ranks fourth. LeBron’s average of 1.47 DraftKings points per minute leads all of Friday’s forwards, and he has the potential for another big performance vs. Charlotte.

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Value

On the other side of that matchup, the Hornets are arguably in an even better spot. They’re favored as the home team, and their implied team total of 122.0 trails only the Nets’ slate-best mark of 124.0.

The Hornets are also dealing with some injuries at the moment, most notably Kelly Oubre Jr. He’s been ruled out once again with a hand injury, opening up plenty of minutes on the wing for Jalen McDaniels. He’s logged at least 22.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he’s coming off 28.1 minutes on Saturday. McDaniels has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s a great bet to return value in this spot.

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Fast Break

Let’s keep rolling with the Pistons. Saddiq Bey stands out as an elite value on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Bey was limited to just 18.4 minutes in his last contest, but that didn’t stop him from posting a positive Plus/Minus. It also stands out as a clear outlier, with Bey logging at least 30.6 minutes in his two previous contests. He’s projected for more than 29 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Anthony Edwards has seen a spike in production with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.19 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He hasn’t been priced up nearly as aggressively as he has been on DraftKings, and his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. His 11 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

There have been plenty of monster performances across the NBA in recent weeks, which has resulted in Pascal Siakam being a bit overlooked. However, he’s scored at least 50.5 DKFP in five of his past six contests, including 76.25 DraftKings points two weeks ago vs. the Knicks.

Siakam continues to carry one of the largest workloads in basketball, and he can be expected to play around 40 minutes on most nights. Siakam has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do damage with that much playing time. The Raptors also draw one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Pacers, who rank fifth in pace and tied for 23rd in defensive efficiency. Siakam won’t get the same love as some of the other high-priced studs on Monday, making him an elite pivot for tournaments.

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Value

Kyle Anderson has dealt with an injury recently, but he returned to his usual workload in the Timberwolves’ last contest. He racked up 34.5 minutes, and if he’s going to continue to play that much, he should provide excellent value. Anderson has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.03 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

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Fast Break

Draymond Green is another possibility for the Warriors on Monday. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on DraftKings, including 45.75 DraftKings points on Christmas. His matchup vs. the Hawks comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.3, and he could pick up a few additional minutes given their absences in the frontcourt.

Christian Wood has moved into the Mavericks’ starting lineup, which makes him far easier to trust on a nightly basis. He’s averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s locked into around 30 minutes in competitive contests. He should be able to rack up fantasy points vs. the Rockets given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.43.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Garland isn’t the only injury the Cavs are dealing with at the moment. Evan Mobley also missed their last contest, and he’s questionable for Monday’s rematch with the Bulls.

Jarrett Allen didn’t see a huge spike in production sans Mobley on Saturday, but Mobley’s absence should be considered a positive if he can’t suit up again. Allen has increased his usage rate by +1.8% and his rebound rate by +0.8% with Mobley off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. That’s a sizable increase from his average of 0.97 DraftKings points in general this season, and the Bulls also represent a strong matchup for centers. Add in a lower price tag than usual, and Allen would be an outstanding buy-low target if Mobley is sidelined once again.

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Value

Kevon Looney isn’t the most exciting DFS play, but he’s typically a nice value. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season and usually plays around 24 minutes, which is usually enough for him to return value.

However, the Warriors’ injuries in the frontcourt make him far more exciting than usual on Monday. There’s a chance that he picks up a few additional minutes, giving him far more upside than usual. The Hawks are another fantastic matchup for centers, so Looney stands out as an excellent salary-saver on Monday.

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Fast Break

Most people will likely opt for Doncic if paying up for a mega-stud, but Nikola Jokic has been nearly as good recently. He’s averaged 1.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s at least 55.75 DraftKings points in 11 of his past 12 games. He’s coming off 70.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, and while he’ll have to deal with a tough matchup vs. Rudy Gobert, he’s one of the few players in basketball who can match Doncic’s upside.

Miles Turner is a supremely talented player, and he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute this season. The big issue has been inconsistent minutes, but Turner has logged at least 33.5 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s unsurprisingly scored at least 48.0 DraftKings points in both contests, and if he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s a massive bargain at just $6,400.