NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Feb. 6): Target Nets and Mavericks for Value

Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props on PrizePicks.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s transformation into a full-fledged superstar is officially complete. He may not get the same attention as some of the league’s other top players, but he has done literally everything for the Thunder this season. He’s averaging 31.0 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game, resulting in an average of 50.05 DraftKings points. He was rewarded with his first-ever All-Star nod, and it has been richly deserved.

SGA’s price tag is up to $10,700 on DraftKings, and that is probably on the expensive side. However, he’s scored at least 50.5 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games, and he has a few things working in his favor on Monday. He’s taking on the Warriors, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and the total in this contest sits at 234.5.

The Thunder are also still without Lu Dort, and SGA has increased his usage rate by +6.5% with Dort off the floor this season. He also ups his fantasy output to 1.61 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, so he carries a bit of additional upside for as long as Dort is sidelined.

---

Value

The Mavericks made one of the most surprising moves in recent NBA history after trading for the disgruntled Kyrie Irving. His Nets’ tenure was nothing short of a disaster, and he has now failed to coexist with LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, and James Harden. Maybe his fourth team will finally be the charm?

Irving isn’t going to be ready to go on Monday, while Luka Doncic remains out of the lineup with a heel injury. With Spencer Dinwiddie no longer part of the equation, the Mavericks are going to have tons of value available, especially if Christian Wood (thumb; questionable) is also sidelined.

Jalen Hardy should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.8% with Doncic and Dinwiddie off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.89 DraftKings points per minute. He could approach 30 minutes vs. the Jazz, making him one of the best values of the day at $3,400.

---

Fast Break

The Nets are another team that will be significantly thin on Monday. They could get back T.J. Warren and Ben Simmons – Warren is probable, Simmons is questionable – but Edmond Sumner should still be looking at a sizable workload. He’s projected for more than 31 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s a steal at $4,500 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 88%.

Jrue Holiday is down to just $7,500 on FanDuel, and he has some significant buy-low appeal at that number. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.07 in 21 games with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool), and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.99 vs. the Blazers.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Warriors were dealt a big blow over the weekend, with Steph Curry suffering a leg injury that will sideline him for multiple weeks. The Warriors are currently in eighth place in the Western Conference standings, and they’re just 1.0 games above the Blazers, who are in 11th. They’re going to have to fight to stay in the playoff picture and defend their title from last year.

Jordan Poole is going to be asked to pick up the slack, and he’s done a solid job in place of Curry in the past. He’s averaged 34.9 minutes in 15 games without his star teammate this season, and Poole has responded with 37.52 DraftKings points per game. That’s more than enough production to justify a selection at $6,200 on DraftKings. His average salary in games without Curry this season has been over $7,800, so he’s not going to be this affordable for long.

---

Value

Cam Thomas was fully unleashed in the Nets’ last game. He posted a usage rate of 45.0%, and he responded with 59.0 DraftKings points in 29.1 minutes. He likely will see a reduction in usage if Warren and Simmons are back in the lineup, but he clearly still has some upside at $5,000 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

---

Fast Break

Tim Hardaway Jr. has a wide range of outcomes on most slates. He provides very little production in the peripheral categories, so most of his fantasy value is derived from scoring. However, he clearly has more scoring upside than usual given the team’s current roster. He posted a 23.9% usage rate across 25.1 minutes on Saturday, and he’s looking at a similar workload on Monday.

Malaki Branham has been a nice source of value recently, scoring at least 32.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s shot the ball unsustainably well during those contests, but he could see a few additional minutes given the team’s injury situation. Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson are both questionable, while Romeo Langford and Devin Vassell remain out of the lineup.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The Bulls lead Monday’s slate with an implied team total of 124.5 points. They’re in a prime spot against the Spurs, who rank dead-last in defensive efficiency and fourth in pace. It doesn’t get much better than that from a scoring perspective.

DeMar DeRozan has seen a slight reduction in fantasy value in his second season in Chicago, but he remains one of the most gifted scorers in the league. He’s averaging 26.0 points per game while shooting 51.1% from the field, and he’s played all the minutes he can handle recently. He’s averaged 37.8 minutes over his past eight games, and he can do some serious damage with that much playing time vs. the Spurs. DeRozan has feasted against his former team since arriving in Chicago, averaging 35.0 points per game in three matchups.

---

Value

Corey Kispert doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table, but he’s hard to ignore at $3,500. He’s coming off nearly 37 minutes in his last outing, and he’s currently projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.00. His current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s a great bet to return value on this slate.

---

Fast Break

The Kings have been without De’Aaron Fox recently due to personal reasons, and his status for Monday is currently unknown. Harrison Barnes would be more appealing than usual if Fox is ruled out, with Barnes seeing a +3.1% usage bump with Fox off the floor. He struggled mightily in the Kings’ blowout loss on Sunday, but he racked up 33.5 FanDuel points in his first outing without Fox. He’s worth some consideration at $6,000 on FanDuel.

Kenrich Williams is another potential source of value. It’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll start or come off the bench, but he’s scored at least 22.75 DraftKings points in five of his past six games. He did it in just 10.5 minutes in his last outing, and he played more than 30 minutes in his previous two contests. He should see a bump in playing time regardless of whether or not he starts on Monday, and he’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

There’s going to be plenty of value available on Monday’s slate, so paying up for Giannis Antetokounmpo makes a ton of sense. He owns the top ceiling in our NBA Models by a mile, and he’s been playing some of his best basketball of the season of late. He’s racked up at least 59.5 DraftKings points in six straight games, and he’s gone for at least 70.5 in four of his past five. Giannis has been dominant on the interior, piling up points and rebounds like a prime Wilt Chamberlain, and he even chipped in 11 assists in his last contest.

He shouldn’t find much resistance against the Blazers. They’ve allowed the seventh-most points in the paint per game this season, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 123.25 ranks second on the slate.

---

Value

The Jazz quietly have an abundance of big men, with Kelly Olynyk, Lauri Markkanen, and Walker Kessler all playing well at times this season. However, the team has started all three players since Olynyk returned to the lineup three games ago, so it’s possible that there’s enough playing time for each of them.

Olynyk was limited in his first two games back, but he returned to just under 30 minutes in his last contest. If he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s undoubtedly underpriced at just $4,100. Olynyk has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can pile up fantasy points quickly. Even if he returns to mid-20s minutes in this spot, he should still be able to return value.

---

Fast Break

Jonathan Kuminga has seen a slight uptick in playing time recently, and he’s projected for 22 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s not a ton, but it’s enough to make him viable at $3,700. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus vs. the Thunder.

If Wood is able to suit up for the Mavericks, he’s undoubtedly going to see a boost in value. He could be limited after missing the past eight games with an injury, but he’s averaged 1.29 FanDuel points per minute with Doncic and Dinwiddie off the court. That gives him a chance to return value even without a full workload. His $7,900 price tag on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

There is definitely a bit of sticker shock with Kristaps Porzingis at $9,600 on DraftKings, but he’s been worth every penny of late. He’s scored at least 49.25 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, and the lone exception was a blowout win where he played just 23 minutes.

Porzingis will have his hands full vs. the Cavaliers on Monday, but he could be looking at a massive workload. Kyle Kuzma has already been ruled out due to an ankle injury, while Bradley Beal is questionable with a foot injury. Porzingis has increased his usage rate by +4.8% with both players off the floor this season, and he’s averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario. He should provide a bit more value than usual even if Beal is able to go, but he’s best deployed if Beal joins Kuzma on the sidelines.

---

Value

The Blazers got off to an excellent start this season, but they’ve dropped well back in the Western Conference standings. They’re going to have to continue to survive without Jusuf Nurkic, who will miss his fourth consecutive game on Monday.

Drew Eubanks has seen a nice uptick in playing time sans Nurkic, racking up 26.3 minutes in his last outing. He didn’t provide much fantasy value in that spot, finishing with just 16.25 DraftKings points, but there should be better performances on the horizon. Eubanks has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s displayed plenty of upside when given the chance to play expanded minutes. He’s averaged 23.36 DraftKings points in 11 games with at least 24 minutes this season, so he’s definitely in play at $3,800.

---

Fast Break

Draymond Green has been a solid source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.34 over his past 10 games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, including 46.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. He’s going to have to take on a larger role as a facilitator with Curry out of the lineup, and his $6,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

Domantas Sabonis stands out as a solid stud option on FanDuel, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s averaged 1.30 FanDuel points per minute, and he draws a superb matchup vs. the Rockets. Sabonis torched the Rockets for 71.0 FanDuel points in their last meeting, and he would be another potential beneficiary if Fox is ruled out.