NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Dec. 5): Buy Low on Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

It’s taken some time for Trae Young and Dejounte Murray to gel in Atlanta, but they’ve started to figure things out. They’re currently sitting at 13-10, good for fourth place in the Eastern Conference, and both players have played well for fantasy purposes.

Young missed the Hawks’ last game, but he’s not on the injury report on Monday. He should return to the lineup vs. the Thunder, and Young has gone off for at least 51.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. The Thunder also represent an excellent matchup, ranking third in pace this season. The Hawks are currently implied for 121.0 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.

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Value

The Pacers have been one of the biggest surprises of the early season, thanks mostly to the play of Tyrese Haliburton. However, Haliburton missed Sunday’s game vs. the Blazers, and he’s already been ruled out for Monday vs. the Warriors. T.J. McConnell also missed the Pacers’ last contest, and he’s officially listed as questionable.

With the team down their top two point guards, Andrew Nembhard has had to take over as the top facilitator. He’s handed out at least eight dimes in back-to-back games, and he leads the team with a 36.1% assist rate in those contests. He’s also scored at least 13 points in both contests, so he’s provided outstanding fantasy value in back-to-back games.

There’s some blowout risk vs. the Warriors – the Pacers are listed as 11-point underdogs – but Nembhard has played at least 35.5 minutes in back-to-back blowouts. He’s cheap enough that it helps mitigate some of the risk.

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Fast Break

Ja Morant has played well for the Grizzlies with Desmond Bane out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate to 40.1% with Bane off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.48 FanDuel points per minute. He scored 53.0 FanDuel points vs. the Pistons on Sunday, and his $9,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. His matchup vs. the Clippers is a bit tougher than yesterday’s, but Ja is basically matchup-proof.

James Harden is expected to return to the lineup on Monday, and he’s priced pretty reasonably across the industry. There’s always a chance he could be limited in his first game back, but he’s projected for more than 35 minutes in our NBA Models. He’ll also be taking on one of his former teams in the Rockets, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

As usual, we’re going to have to deal with the Heat’s injury report shenanigans on Monday. They have half their team listed as either probable or questionable, so it’s tough to get a feel for who they will have available.

Fortunately, Tyler Herro is listed as probable after suiting up in the past five games. They eased him back into the rotation in his first game back, limiting him to 29.4 minutes vs. the Wizards, but they cranked his workload way up afterwards. He’s racked up at least 37.3 minutes in four straight games, and he’s responded with at least 43.25 DraftKings points in each of his past three.

The status of Jimmy Butler will be important to monitor. If Butler is out of the lineup, Herro is undoubtedly underpriced in a pace-up spot vs. the Grizzlies. However, Herro still managed to return value with Butler active on Friday, so it’s not a dealbreaker one way or the other.

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Value

If McConnell suits up for the Pacers, he is definitely worth considering in addition to Nembhard. McConnell has always been a solid source of value when he’s been asked to play big minutes, and he’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s also priced at just $3,900 on DraftKings, and McConnell has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.41 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

The Hornets are in really rough shape at the moment. They’re playing without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Dennis Smith Jr., while Miles Bridges remains in limbo. That doesn’t leave the team with a ton of NBA-caliber talent. Terry Rozier has had to do a lot of the heavy lifting for this squad, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on FanDuel. He’s also displayed a ceiling of close to 50 fantasy points, making him underpriced at $7,100.

Klay Thompson is still struggling to make shots, but he’s priced at a point where that’s not a huge issue. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.21 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, so he can return value even if his shot isn’t falling. If he does get hot, he has the upside for a huge performance.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Bennedict Mathurin isn’t really priced like a stud, but he has the potential for stud-like production with Haliburton out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate to a team-high 34.2% with Haliburton off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.13 DraftKings points per minute. The Pacers continue to bring Mathurin off the bench, but he eclipsed 32 minutes sans Haliburton on Sunday.

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Value

Tim Hardaway Jr. has been red-hot of late. He’s racked up at least 32.5 DraftKings points in three straight games, including at least 43.75 in back-to-back games. He did it against the Knicks on Saturday despite playing just 27.6 minutes, so he has a bit of room for improvement Monday vs. the Suns. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance – he’s due for some regression as a 3-point shooter – but he remains reasonably priced at $4,600 on DraftKings. Hardaway has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.75 with a comparable salary and minute projection as a member of the Mavericks.

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Fast Break

The Hawks have some minutes available in the frontcourt at the moment. John Collins and De’Andre Hunter are both sidelined with injuries, while Bogdan Bogdanovic is still working his way into shape. That leaves a nice chunk of playing time for A.J. Griffin. He’s projected for just under 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.84 FanDuel points per minute this season. His $4,400 salary on FanDuel also comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

Like Morant, Dillon Brooks has enjoyed life without Desmond Bane of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 32.4 FanDuel points in three of them. He’s another strong value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Is it time to buy low on Giannis Antetokounmpo? His salary has dipped below $12,000 for the first time since October 29th, and he draws a phenomenal matchup vs. the Magic. They rank 27th in defensive efficiency, and they allow the 10th-most points in the paint per game. They’ve moved down to 24th in that department over their past three games, and Giannis does most of his damage in that area.

Even in a down year, Giannis still leads all players with an average of 1.74 DraftKings points per minute this season. This seems like a prime spot for him to hit his ceiling.

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Value

Jalen Johnson is another member of the Hawks who should benefit from their current injury situation, and he racked up 32.0 DraftKings points over 32.7 minutes on Friday. That game was with Young also out of the lineup, but Johnson is still expected to see around 30 minutes in a good matchup vs. the Thunder. He’s increased his production to 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he stands out as one of the best value options on the slate.

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Fast Break

P.J. Washington couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat on Saturday, shooting 0-13 from the field and 0-3 from 3-point range. However, he still somehow managed to get to 32.1 FanDuel points, which is extremely impressive. Washington has shot the ball well for most of the year, so he has room for improvement Monday vs. the Clippers.

Dario Saric has started the past two games for the Suns, and he’s played exactly 21.5 minutes in both. He racked up 25.25 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s averaged a healthy 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season. He remains extremely affordable at $3,300 on DraftKings, so he’s viable if he draws another start on Monday.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Deandre Ayton doesn’t play as many minutes as the typical stud center, but he makes up for it with his efficiency. He’s averaged 1.19 DKFP per minute this season, and he’s been even better of late. Ayton has displayed increased offensive aggression recently, posting a usage rate of at least 29.1% in three of his past five games. He’s scored 43.0, 57.0, and 66.25 DraftKings points in those contests, and he played just 25.3 minutes in the game he finished with 43.0. That gives him an outstanding ceiling for his price tag if he can get back to his usual workload Monday vs. the Mavericks.

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Value

Mason Plumlee has always been a solid per-minute contributor, but his playing time has been inconsistent. That’s not the case this season. He’s playing closer to 30 minutes on most nights, and he’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. He’s scored at least 36.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s priced very fairly at $5,400. His salary peaked above $6,000 recently, so he stands out as a strong per-dollar investment.

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Fast Break

Myles Turner led the team with a 33.0% usage rate on Sunday, and he racked up 37.75 DraftKings points in 28 minutes. His playing time has been all over the place this season, and his minutes are very tough to predict in a potential blowout vs. the Warriors. However, he has some upside at his current price tag, and he’s projected for less than 10% ownership.

Clint Capela might be the best per-dollar option at the position. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.36 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, yet his price tag has barely budged. Don’t expect him to play more than 30 minutes or so, but he’s a great bet to pay off his current salary vs. the Thunder. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.42 ranks second at the position on FanDuel.