NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Apr. 24): Target Giannis Antetokounmpo in his Return?

Monday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Heat have jumped out to a 2-1 lead over the Bucks, which makes Game 4 a virtual must-win for Milwaukee. Teams that take a 3-1 series lead have historically won the series at a greater than 95% clip, so the Bucks need to do everything possible to avoid falling into that hole.

Of course, the big story for Milwaukee has been the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo. He left Game 1 early with a back injury and hasn’t suited up in either of the past two games. He’s questionable for Game 4, and his return would obviously have a tremendous impact on the Bucks’ chances.

Without Giannis in the lineup, Jrue Holiday has had to take on a much larger burden. He racked up 52.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and followed that up with 50.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. Holiday came crashing back to reality in Game 3, but he has consistently produced with Giannis off the floor all season. He increased his usage rate by +5.7% with Giannis off the floor during the regular season, resulting in a team-high average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute.

Giannis’ return would clearly be a negative for Holiday’s fantasy prospects, but he’s still put together some big games alongside Antetokounmpo recently. He had 53.75 DraftKings points in his last full game with Giannis, so he can still provide value in that scenario.

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Value

Kyle Lowry had a rough season for the Heat, but he’s put together so solid performances during the postseason. He was phenomenal in the team’s first play-in contest, racking up 45.3 FanDuel points in 32.6 minutes, and he had 25.7 FanDuel points in their last game. His playing time has been down during the Bucks’ series, but he’s increased his production to 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Lowry stands out as an excellent target at the position on FanDuel, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

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Fast Break

Ja Morant was fantastic for the Grizzlies in the fourth quarter of Game 3, albeit in a contest where his team was getting blown out. He rattled off 22 straight points for the Grizzlies, and he finished with 78.75 DraftKings points in 41.5 minutes. Morant’s average of 1.51 DraftKings points per minute is easily the top mark among Monday’s shooting guards, while his 89% Bargain Rating also tops the position. He’s also projected for less than 20% ownership, making him a very appealing pivot for tournaments.

Gabe Vincent is showing up in 37.2% of optimal lineup simulations on FanDuel, which trails only Lowry at the position. He’s also projected for more minutes than Lowry in our NBA Models, although he has been a far weaker per-minute producer. His ownership projection of just under 33% suggests he’s slightly undervalued on this slate.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The backcourt options are pretty thin on Monday, which vaults D’Angelo Russell into the stud conversation. He hasn’t exactly produced like a stud since arriving in Los Angeles, averaging just 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. However, he has given the team some solid production during the postseason, scoring at least 34.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. His price has decreased to a very reasonable $5,800 for Game 4, and Russell has proven he can pay off that salary. He’s one of the better per-dollar options at guard.

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Value

Austin Reaves burst onto the scene in 2022-23, establishing himself as a vital part of the Lakers’ rotation. “Hillbilly Kobe” has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 0.86 over the past month. Most of his elite performances came while the team was playing without LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis, but he’s settled in as an excellent role player. Reaves has played at least 35.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and that much playing time gives him a solid chance to return value.

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Fast Break

Desmond Bane has struggled in back-to-back games, finishing with 26.0 FanDuel points or less in both contests. However, that’s caused his price tag to dip to $7,100, making him an appealing buy-low target. He leads all shooting guards with 11 Pro Trends, while his 97% Bargain Rating is tied for first at the position. Bane has had a comparable salary in just 20 previous contests this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.11 (per the Trends tool).

The Heat have dusted off Duncan Robinson for this series, and it has worked to perfection. Robinson has knocked down nine of 12 3-point attempts over his past two games, and he’s scored at least 22.5 FanDuel points in both contests. He’s another strong value target across the industry.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Jimmy Butler suffered a glute injury in Game 3 vs. the Bucks, but he was able to finish out the game. He’s listed as questionable for Game 4, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Butler sits out a playoff contest.

Butler is the type of player who saves his best performances for big games, and he has not disappointed to start the postseason. He racked up 63.75 DraftKings points in the Game 1 upset, and he had 47.25 DraftKings points in just 28.2 minutes in Game 3. He struggled a bit in Game 2, finishing with just 37.75 DraftKings points, but he played just 28.3 minutes in the blowout loss. Butler will likely play closer to 40 minutes if Monday’s game is more competitive, which should lead to a bigger performance.

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Value

Luke Kennard was one of the top 3-point marksmen in the league this season, shooting a blistering 49.4% from downtown. He hasn’t really been able to get rolling in this series, but he’s projected for 26.1 minutes in our NBA Models. Kennard has averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his price tag has dipped to just $4,200 for Game 4. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, which is tied for the top mark at the position.

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Fast Break

Like Holiday, Khris Middleton will see a reduction in value if Giannis is able to suit up. However, the Bucks are still going to need his scoring. Middleton has racked up at least 39.0 FanDuel points in two of his first three playoff contests, with the lone exception being Game 2’s blowout win. He played just 27.7 minutes in that contest, so Middleton is a good bet to return value as long as this game is more competitive. The Bucks’ implied team total of 113.0 is also tied with the Lakers for the top mark on the slate.

Dillon Brooks made the mistake of “poking the bear” after Game 2, and he responded with a horrendous performance in Game 3. He finished with 11.4 FanDuel points before getting ejected in the start of the second half, and he shot a dreadful 3-13 from the field. Brooks is not known for his scoring ability, but that didn’t stop him from posting a 30.3% usage rate in that contest. With a better shooting performance, he has the potential to pay off his salary (if he doesn’t get ejected first).

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

It sounds as though Antetokounmpo will return to the lineup for the Bucks on Monday, which is a massive development. Antetokounmpo turned in another amazing season for the Bucks, averaging a career-high 31.1 points per game with 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists. The result was an average of 57.5 DraftKings points per game, and his average of 1.80 DraftKings points per minute was the top mark in basketball.

Giannis has been even more productive than usual when on the floor recently, increasing his production to 2.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s scored at least 63.25 DraftKings points in his past two full contests, despite playing no more than 32.8 minutes. Giannis averaged approximately 4.5 additional minutes per game during the playoffs last season, so he has the potential for even better numbers during the postseason.

His price tag has also dipped to just $10,400, and while that might be expensive for most players, it represents a massive steal for Giannis. He hasn’t been priced below $10,500 since October of 2021, so his current salary is a massive outlier. There’s always a chance he could be limited in his first game back, but this salary is too good to pass up.

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Value

If we’re going to pay up for guys like Antetokounmpo and Butler, we’re going to need to save some salary somewhere. Enter Santi Aldama. He hasn’t been a huge part of the Grizzlies’ rotation through the first three games vs. the Lakers, but he’s averaged a solid 0.90 DKFP per minute for the year. The team is also basically out of big men, with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman serving as the Grizzlies’ only other options in the frontcourt. Aldama is currently projected for around 17 minutes in our NBA Models, which should give him a chance to return value.

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Fast Break

Like most of his teammates, Jaren Jackson Jr. struggled to get anything going in Game 3. However, he’s still played some fantastic basketball of late, scoring at least 43.3 FanDuel points in five of his previous six games. He’s averaged 1.34 FanDuel points per minute for the year, and he’s played as many as 39.8 minutes to start the postseason.

Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Jackson’s fantasy prospects:

Rui Hachimura was part of the Lakers’ overhaul before the trade deadline, and he’s paid huge dividends through their first three playoff contests. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three games, despite playing just 22.1 minutes in Game 3. He’s increased his production to 1.0 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should return to his typical 28 minutes in Game 4.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Anthony Davis may not play as much as some NBA fans would like, but he is still a dominant force when he’s on the floor. He’s gone for at least 61.5 DraftKings points in two of his first three games vs. the Grizzlies, including a masterpiece in Game 3. He finished with 31 points, 17 boards, two assists, two steals, and three blocks, resulting in 65.75 DraftKings points. While LeBron is still arguably the greatest player in NBA history, this is AD’s team now.

Overall, Davis’ average of 1.52 DraftKings points per minute trails only Antetokounmpo on this slate. His ceiling isn’t quite as high, but Davis is another outstanding pay-up option to consider. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

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Value

The Heat acquired Kevin Love after he was cut by the Cavaliers, and he’s given the team some quality minutes during the postseason. He’s not playing a ton, but he has seen at least 20.5 minutes in each of the team’s two wins. That’s enough for Love to do some damage, given his average of 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. Love also displayed a ceiling of more than 30 DraftKings points in Game 1 of this series, so he has some upside for his price tag.

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Fast Break

Bam Adebayo is capable of doing a little bit of everything on the basketball court, and he’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s used his well-balanced skill set to post a positive Plus/Minus in two of his past three contests, with the lone exception being the blowout loss in Game 2. He leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends, and he could be asked to do a bit more than usual if Butler is limited.