Friday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Trae Young has gotten off to an excellent start this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.06 on FanDuel. He’s increased his scoring output in all four games, going from 23 points in Game 1 to 35 points in Game 4, and he draws an excellent matchup Friday vs. the Pistons. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency to start the year, and they rank tied for ninth in pace. That’s a nice combination, and the Hawks’ implied team total of 117.5 ranks third on the slate.
There were some questions about what Young’s workload would look like with Dejounte Murray coming over from San Antonio, but he’s put those questions to rest for the time being. His 34.9% usage rate through four games actually represents an increase from last year, while his 42.5% assist rate is basically in line with his career average.
Young’s 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Value
Dennis Smith Jr. has gotten a bit more expensive recently, but he remains one of the best pure values at the position. He’s taken over as the team’s starting point guard with Terry Rozier out of the lineup, and he’s averaged a stout 1.15 DraftKings points per minute. Smith is currently projected for just over 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and he has historically thrived when given the opportunity to play. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.00 on DraftKings with a comparable minute projection, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on this slate (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Monte Morris stands out as an excellent option on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. Morris moved to Washington in the offseason, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four games to start the year. That said, his price hasn’t moved an inch. The Wizards own the fourth-highest implied team total on Friday’s slate, and Morris is a cheap way to get some exposure to their offense.
On the other side of that matchup, Tyrese Haliburton continues to put up big numbers for the Pacers. He’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s scored at least 41.5 DraftKings points in all five games. He’s still too cheap for the kind of production he’s provided in Indiana.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Pelicans’ injury report is an absolute mess at the moment. Brandon Ingram is out with a concussion, but Zion Williamson, C.J. McCollum, Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, and Dyson Daniels are all questionable. That’s a ton of moving parts, so it’s going to be very important to monitor this situation before tip-off.
If McCollum is active, he should carry a larger offensive burden than usual. He increased his usage rate by +3.0% with Ingram off the court last season, and he posted a season-high 32.4% usage rate with Ingram and Williamson out of the lineup on Tuesday. He finished with just 33.5 FanDuel points in that contest, but he shot just 6-20 from the field. With some better shooting luck on Friday, he has the potential for a big performance.
Value
The Spurs have been a prime source of value to start the year, and not much has changed heading into Friday. Devin Vassell remains out of the lineup, so if anything, the Spurs are providing a bit more value than usual.
Josh Richardson is coming off 38.75 DraftKings points over 32.6 minutes in his last game, and he got to serve as more of a traditional point guard in that contest. He increased his assist rate to 35.7%, and he finished with a double-double. Overall, Richardson has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s too cheap at $5,400 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Jalen Green is one of the most exciting young players in basketball, and he’s had a strong start to his season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on DraftKings, and he’s increased his production to 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. His price is up to $6,700 on DraftKings, but he remains very affordable at $6,400 on FanDuel.
Franz Wagner is coming off his best game of the year in his last outing. He finished with 36.5 FanDuel points over 34.7 minutes, and he posted a usage rate of 33.0%. The team will be without Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony on Friday, and Wagner increased his usage rate by +2.8% and his assist rate by +2.5% with both players off the floor last year.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum is coming off his worst game of the year in his last outing, but he’s still had a remarkable start to the year. He’s averaged 32.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game while shooting a hyper-efficient 55.6% from the field. Add it all up, and he’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute through his first four games.
Tatum also routinely carries one of the largest minute workloads in the league. He’s currently projected for more than 36.6 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark at the position on DraftKings. The Celtics aren’t in an ideal spot vs. the Cavaliers – they rank second in defensive efficiency to start the year – but it’s hard to pass up that combination of volume and efficiency.
Tatum also remains very affordable for his production on DraftKings. His $9,600 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%, so he’s a strong pay-up option on this slate.
Value
Justise Winslow returned to the Blazers’ lineup Wednesday following a one-game absence, and he’s a nice potential source of value at just $3,900. Winslow has historically been an excellent per-minute producer, and he averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute last year. He hasn’t been quite as good to start the new season, but perhaps that will change vs. the Rockets. They’ve been one of the best possible matchups this season, ranking fourth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Jae Crowder will not suit up for the Suns this season, which opens the door for Cameron Johnson to take on a larger role. His minutes were capped in the mid-20s to start the year, but he’s coming off 32.4 minutes in his last outing. Johnson averaged 0.84 FanDuel points per minute last season, so he’s going to be a valuable fantasy asset at $4,300 if he plays that much moving forward.
Deni Avdija is another potential source of value on FanDuel. He’s not expected to see quite as many minutes on Friday, but he’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season. He has at least 29.0 FanDuel points in two of his past three games, giving him nice upside at just $3,800.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Bucks are an option on Friday’s slate, which means Giannis Antetokounmpo is worth considering in fantasy. He’s gotten off to a flying start this season, and he’s coming off 72.3 FanDuel points in his last outing. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 40.7% in back-to-back games, and he should continue to carry a larger offensive burden than usual with Khris Middleton sidelined. Overall, he’s averaged 1.88 FanDuel points per minute this season, and no one on this slate is even in the same ballpark.
His matchup vs. the Knicks is pretty mediocre, but the Knicks are at least playing a bit faster than they did last year. They actually rank 11th in pace to start the year, but the matchup is pretty irrelevant for Giannis at this point. He’s an incredibly tough fade every time he takes the floor, particularly on FanDuel, given his Bargain Rating of 85%.
Value
P.J. Washington has struggled to return value this season, but his arrow is pointing up. He’s coming off just under 38 minutes in his last outing, albeit in a game that went to overtime. Still, Washington is going to need to play more minutes for the Hornets given all their absences. Rozier, LaMelo Ball, and Miles Bridges are all expected to miss this game, leaving the team without arguably their three best players. Washington averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute last season, so he can take advantage of a few additional minutes.
Fast Break
There was plenty of debate about who should be the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, but it seems as though the Magic made the correct choice. It’s hard to imagine Paolo Banchero getting off to a better start than he has this season. He’s averaged 24.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists through his first five games, resulting in an average of 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. He leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s definitely worth consideration in a strong matchup vs. the Hornets.
Kristaps Porzingis is down to $7,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. That makes him a nice buy-low candidate. He averaged 1.33 FanDuel points per minute last season, and he’s capable of racking up fantasy points in a variety of ways. He’s projected for approximately 31 minutes against the Pacers, who have been a fantasy goldmine to start the year.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Joel Embiid has averaged just 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is a steep decrease from his average of 1.58 last season. Scoring the ball hasn’t been an issue of late – he had 31 points on 12-17 shooting in his last game – but his peripherals are down basically across the board. He’s averaging fewer rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks than he did last year, which has resulted in nearly 10 fewer fantasy points per game.
Of course, we’re only talking about a five-game sample size. Embiid is one of the best players in the league, so he could turn things around at any moment. When he does, his $10,000 salary on DraftKings is almost certainly too cheap. This is a nice opportunity to buy low on a talented player.
Value
Alperen Sengun is expected to return to the Rockets’ lineup on Friday, and maybe the team will actually throw him into the starting lineup against the Blazers. They’ve been hesitant to do that this season, but either way, Sengun should see a healthy number of minutes in this matchup. He’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s one of the most efficient centers in basketball for fantasy purposes.
Fast Break
Jakob Poeltl has played around 30 minutes per game this season, and that’s more than enough for him to be fantasy-relevant. He averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute last year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.21 this season. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Jusuf Nurkic has been priced down to $6,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%. Nurkic has always been an outstanding per-minute producer, but his playing time has been volatile. However, he’s played at least 35.1 minutes in two of his past four games, and he’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s a steal if he’s going to continue to play that much.
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