NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Friday, Nov. 11): Fred VanVleet is Still Too Cheap

Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Fred VanVleet is up to $8,400 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel, but that’s still too cheap for Friday’s matchup vs. the Thunder. The Raptors remain without Pascal Siakam, and Khem Birch and Precious Achiuwa will both join him on the sidelines on Friday. VanVleet has thrived with Siakam sidelined this season, increasing his fantasy production to 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with the star big man off the floor. He’s racked up at least 46.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, including at least 54.75 DraftKings points in two of them. That includes his most recent outing, where he finished with a season-high 32 points on 26 shot attempts.

VanVleet is in another great spot for success vs. the Thunder. They’ve played at the 10th-fastest pace this season, and VanVleet leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.19 on DraftKings.

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Value

The Bucks have already ruled out Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday vs. the Spurs, and Jevon Carter put on a show with both players sidelined on Wednesday. He posted a 32.4% usage rate across 44.8 minutes, finishing with an absurd 62.5 DraftKings points at just $3,900. That performance resulted in a Plus/Minus of +44.78, which is one of the best figures I have ever seen.

Carter isn’t quite as affordable on Friday, but he still stands out as one of the strongest values on the slate. He’s increased his production to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with Giannis and Holiday off the floor, and he should see another sizable workload in an exploitable matchup vs. the Spurs. They rank fifth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, so Carter can do some damage in this spot.

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Fast Break

The Knicks are another team with an excellent matchup on Friday. They’re taking on the Pistons, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Jalen Brunson is worth some consideration on DraftKings, where his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.

De’Aaron Fox has been a steady contributor on FanDuel, posting a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game. His price has also decreased by -$800 from its peak, and his $8,000 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 91%.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Devin Booker is coming off his first double-double of the season in his last outing, finishing with 32 points and 10 assists vs. the Timberwolves. He ultimately racked up 59.5 DraftKings points in 38.2 minutes, and he could be looking at another expanded workload Friday. Chris Paul missed the Suns’ last game due to a heel injury, and he’s officially questionable vs. the Magic.

It would be tough not to love Booker as a stud option if Paul is ruled out. He increased his assist rate by +6.4% in games without CP3 last season, resulting in an average of 47.45 DraftKings points per game. The Magic have also been a friendly matchup for fantasy purposes, giving Booker an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.69. Booker would be in play across the industry if Paul is sidelined, but his $9,000 salary on FanDuel is particularly enticing.

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Value

Malik Monk got off to a slow start this season, but he is starting to make an impact for the Kings. Monk is an outstanding per-minute producer – he’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season – and he’s racked up at least 27.4 minutes in three straight games. He’s unsurprisingly managed to return value in each of those contests, including a 41.0 DraftKings point performance vs. the Warriors on Monday. Monk is too cheap across the industry if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time.

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Fast Break

Bones Hyland is another elite per-minute contributor, averaging 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season. Like Monk, his minutes are also trending in the right direction. He’s racked up at least 23.4 minutes in four straight games, including a season-high 29.8 minutes in his last outing. He’s been priced up aggressively on FanDuel, but his $4,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

Anthony Edwards hasn’t had the start that he was hoping for, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games. That’s caused his salary to dip to just $7,200 on FanDuel, making him an excellent buy-low candidate. Edwards has historically owned a comparable price tag in 59 career games, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.48 (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

OG Anunoby is another member of the Raptors who has benefitted from the absence of Siakam. He’s provided big value in general recently, racking up at least 39.25 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games. He put together his best game of the season in his last outing, racking up 27 points and 10 boards en route to 52.0 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with Siakam off the floor this season, and Nick Nurse has no problems playing him for around 40 minutes in competitive contests.

With that in mind, his $7,100 price tag is a joke, especially in a great matchup vs. the Thunder. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he owns the second-best Opponent Plus/Minus at the position.

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Value

If you’re looking to go cheaper with the Raptors, Otto Porter Jr. is an intriguing option at just $3,600. He’s historically been a fantastic per-minute producer, and he has the opportunity to see a few additional minutes with the Raptors missing a few bodies in the frontcourt. He’s currently projected for 22 minutes in our NBA Models, and Porter has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.14 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

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Fast Break

Grayson Allen finished with a season-high 32.25 DraftKings points in his first game without Giannis and Holiday. He didn’t see a huge spike in usage, but he made up for it by playing more than 35 minutes. That’s a lot of playing time for someone who costs just $5,000 on FanDuel.

The Grizzlies lead the slate with a 119.25 implied team total, making Dillon Brooks a nice buy-low target. He’s currently projected for more than 31 minutes in our NBA Models, and Brooks is never shy about looking for his offense when he’s on the floor.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Things did not go great for Bobby Portis on Wednesday. He finished with a disappointing 28.75 DraftKings points across 34.3 minutes, and he posted a negative Plus/Minus for the second straight game. However, his playing time was encouraging. It was the most minutes Portis has played in a game this season, and he’s capable of producing much more on a per-minute basis than he showed in his last game. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute this season, and that number only figures to increase with Giannis and Holiday sidelined.

Portis is an absolute steal on FanDuel, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

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Value

The piece has focused heavily on the Bucks and Raptors, and we’re not done yet. Thaddeus Young is another member of the Raptors’ frontcourt who should see a boost in playing time, and he’s coming off 26.7 minutes in his last outing. Young hasn’t been a particularly effective per-minute producer this season, averaging 0.79 DraftKings points per minute, but he has historically been good in that department in the past. That said, it doesn’t matter what kind of per-minute producer you are if you’re going to play that much at just $3,100. He’s not projected for as much playing time on Friday, but he still stands out as one of the best per-dollar options at the position.

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Fast Break

Kevin Love has one of the widest ranges of outcomes on a nightly basis. He typically plays between 20 and 25 minutes, and he’s proven capable of racking up 50+ fantasy points in limited playing time. That makes him a strong GPP option any time he’s priced below $5,000 on DraftKings.

Julius Randle had a disastrous year with the Knicks in 2021-22, but he’s turned things around to start the new year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, despite playing 32.5 minutes or less in his past two outings. He should see a few extra minutes if Friday’s game vs. the Pistons is more competitive.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Domantas Sabonis remains one of the most well-balanced fantasy big men in basketball. He’s averaging 16.8 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 6.1 assists through his first 10 games this season, resulting in an average of 1.30 DraftKings points per minute. He’s scored at least 45.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and his salary sits at a very reasonable $8,500 for Friday’s matchup vs. the Lakers. It results in a Bargain Rating of 84%, and the Kings’ implied team total of 117.75 is the second-highest mark on the slate. Sabonis also likely won’t command a ton of ownership in this spot, increasing his appeal for tournaments.

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Value

Obi Toppin has started to earn a few more minutes with Mitchell Robinson sidelined. He’s racked up at least 20.2 minutes in three of his past four games, including a season-high 25.8 minutes two games ago. Toppin has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute, so he’s capable of taking advantage of his extra playing time.

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Fast Break

Brook Lopez erupted for 55.25 DraftKings points without Giannis and Holiday on Wednesday, racking up 24 points, 13 rebounds, and five blocked shots. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance vs. the Spurs, but he clearly has some upside at his current salary.

Al Horford got off to a slow start this season, but he’s started to turn things around. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel, and he remains underpriced at $5,200 for Friday’s matchup vs. the Nuggets.