NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Friday, Mar. 17): Load up on Warriors-Hawks

Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Friday’s game between the Warriors and Hawks should be chock-full of fantasy goodness. The Warriors have played at the fastest pace in the league this season, while the Hawks aren’t far behind in eighth. The Warriors have also been a disaster defensively when playing on the road, allowing the second-most points per game in that split. Add it all up, and the total on this contest is listed at an eye-popping 248 points.

The Hawks are four-point favorites in this contest, so they unsurprisingly lead the slate with a 126.0-point implied team total. That makes Trae Young an outstanding pay-up option. He’s already been a fantastic contributor of late, increasing his production to 1.53 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also scored at least 49.5 DraftKings points in four straight games, including at least 59.5 in his past two.

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Value

Ja Morant will return to the Grizzlies’ lineup in the near future, so Tyus Jones’ days as the starting point guard are numbered. Fortunately, he’ll remain the team’s starter for Friday’s juicy matchup vs. the Spurs. San Antonio has been the top matchup in DFS this season, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency and fourth in pace. They’ve also allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.

Jones leads the Grizzlies with an average of 35.97 FanDuel points in 15 games without Morant this season. He’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him too cheap at $6,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s expected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, but he deserves to be.

Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations also like Jones’ prospects from 3-point range:

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Fast Break

If you’re looking for a pure punt play on DraftKings, Ricky Rubio makes a lot of sense at $3,100. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Rubio is capable of racking up fantasy points quickly. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s projected for around 20 minutes in our NBA Models. He has at least 23.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, which would be more than enough to pay off his current price tag.

Steph Curry is currently questionable for the Warriors, but he’s tough to ignore on FanDuel if he’s active. He’s priced at just $10,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.14 ranks first at the position. His 12 Pro Trends are also the most among Friday’s point guards.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Desmond Bane is coming off a poor showing in his last contest, finishing with just 21.0 DraftKings points vs. the Heat. However, that’s not entirely his fault. The Grizzlies were blown out in that contest, limiting Bane to just 21.9 minutes of playing time. Prior to that contest, Bane had scored at least 43.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.

Bane’s price tag has dropped precipitously following his poor performance, and he’s down to just $7,400 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 93%, making him an elite buy-low target in one of the best spots of the day.

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Value

Anyone who is expected to see significant minutes in Warriors-Hawks is going to have appeal on this slate. That includes Donte DiVincenzo. He’s projected for 33.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and DiVincenzo has averaged a strong 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season. His matchup also results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.04 on FanDuel, which is the fourth-best mark at shooting guard.

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Fast Break

Devin Vassell has struggled since returning to the lineup recently, but his minutes are trending in the right direction. He’s logged at least 31.2 minutes in three straight games, and Vassell has averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute for the year. That suggests better production is coming in the future, and his $5,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s another excellent buy-low target.

Alex Caruso is currently questionable for the Bulls, but he’s worth some consideration on DraftKings if he’s able to suit up. He’s priced at just $3,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games. He’s currently projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.76 (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Let’s keep attacking Warriors-Hawks, this time with Klay Thompson. Thompson got off to a slow start this season, but he has really picked things up of late. He’s shot 49.3% from the field and 45.7% from 3-point range since the All-Star break, good for an average of 24.9 points per game. From a fantasy perspective, he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Thompson hasn’t provided a ton of fantasy value of late, but he put his ceiling on display two games ago vs. the Suns. He finished with 51.75 DraftKings points in 33.6 minutes, scoring 38 points with eight 3-pointers. Thompson is also capable of erupting, and Friday’s matchup vs. the Hawks should provide more opportunities than usual.

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Value

Jarrett Allen remains out for the Cavaliers, so Lamar Stevens should continue to start in the frontcourt. Stevens is a mediocre per-minute producer, but he has increased his production to 0.75 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also dirt cheap at $3,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. Stevens has played at least 25.8 minutes in two of his past three games, and he’s scored at least 18.0 DraftKings points in both contests. That’s more than enough to justify a selection at this price tag, although his ceiling for tournaments is limited.

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Fast Break

The Pelicans are another team with a fantastic matchup on Friday. They’re listed as 5.5-point road favorites vs. the Rockets, who rank 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. That gives Brandon Ingram a bit more upside than usual. Ingram hasn’t scored the ball particularly well of late, but he did rack up 43.2 FanDuel points over 37.6 minutes in his last contest. Ingram has played at least 37.6 minutes in five of his past six games, and with the Pelicans chasing a spot in the play-in tournament, he should be extremely busy once again.

Kyle Anderson has been on a heater recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.69 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s served as one of the Timberwolves’ primary distributors. He’s flirted with a triple-double a lot recently, and he managed to pull it off two games ago vs. the Hawks. He finished with 56.5 DraftKings points in that contest, so he has plenty of upside at a sub-$7k salary.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

With Allen sidelined, Evan Mobley should continue to provide a bit more fantasy value than usual. He’s seen a team-high +1.8% usage bump with Allen off the floor this season, and he’s also seen a slight bump to his rebound rate. Mobley has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, which represents a slight increase from his average of 1.03 for the year. Overall, he’s scored at least 40.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games with Allen sidelined.

Mobley has also been playing better basketball in general recently. There were some growing pains as he learned to play alongside Donovan Mitchell, and Mobley sacrificed some of his offensive game to make that work. However, his scoring has increased as the year has progressed, and he’s averaged 17.8 points per game since the calendar flipped to 2023.

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Value

Jonathan Kuminga is an excellent value target on DraftKings, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. Kuminga was an outstanding per-minute producer as a rookie, and he has started to recapture that form of late. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for more than 27 minutes in our NBA Models. Add in the best game environment of the day, and Kuminga checks a lot of boxes.

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Fast Break

Jaren Jackson Jr. is another underpriced power forward on DraftKings. His $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.0 vs. the Spurs. Triple-J hasn’t been at his best recently, but he’s still averaged a stout 1.26 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He also tallied 45.25 DraftKings points in his last outing, so this is the perfect opportunity for him to build up some momentum.

Sticking with the Grizz, Xavier Tillman gets zero respect on FanDuel. He remains underpriced at $5,700 vs. the Spurs as the team’s last center standing. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Joel Embiid stands out as the clear top stud on this slate from a ceiling projection. Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic are the only players in fantasy that can match his upside, and none of them are available on this slate. As a result, Embiid leads our ceiling projections by a full eight points on DraftKings.

Embiid also gets a fantastic matchup vs. the Hornets. They are still missing starting center Mark Williams, which has had a massive impact on their interior defense. They’ve allowed 58.7 points per game in the paint over their past three contests, which is the fourth-worst mark in the league. Embiid feasted on the Hornets for 53 points in their most recent meeting, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again.

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Value

On the other side of that matchup, Nick Richards is going to have his hands full defensively. There’s definitely a chance that he gets into foul trouble trying to limit Embiid, but he has massive upside if he can stay on the floor. He’s racked up at least 30.2 minutes in two of his past three contests, and he’s finished with 36.6 and 42.4 FanDuel points. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute for the year, so he’s underpriced at just $5,700.

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Fast Break

Despite the Timberwolves adding Rudy Gobert, they’ve been pretty weak against opposing centers this season. Nikola Vucevic draws that matchup on Friday, and it results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.1 on DraftKings. Vucevic has scored at least 42.5 DraftKings points in three straight games, and his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.

Jeremy Sochan has really started to spread his wings during the end of his rookie season. He started the year as a low-usage player offensively, but he’s taken over as one of the Spurs’ top scoring threats of late. As a result, he’s increased his production to 1.19 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games. His price tag hasn’t increased much over that stretch, and he’s displayed a ceiling of nearly 50 fantasy points.