NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Friday, Mar. 10): Buy the Mikal Bridges Breakout

Friday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Jamal Murray is coming off a poor performance in his last contest, finishing with just 22.0 DraftKings points in 35.2 minutes. Still, he’s been an excellent source of value recently, scoring at least 40.75 DraftKings points in his four previous contests. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the fifth-highest mark among Friday’s point guards.

Murray is in a prime bounce-back spot Friday vs. the Spurs. San Antonio has arguably been the best matchup in fantasy this season, ranking fifth in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. They are doing whatever possible to give themselves the maximum number of chances for Victor Wembanyama, which means allowing tons of points on a seemingly nightly basis. There is a bit of blowout concern here – the Nuggets are listed as 12.5-point road favorites – but their implied team total of 124.25 is the top mark on the slate by a decent margin.

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Value

Sticking with the Nuggets, Reggie Jackson is a more affordable option at point guard. He’s played a meaningful bench role for the team recently, logging at least 23 minutes in three of their past four games. He’s projected for another 23 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season. That should be enough to pay off his minimal $3,500 salary on DraftKings.

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Fast Break

Trae Young is coming off a stellar performance in his last contest, finishing with 54.5 DraftKings points Wednesday vs. the Wizards. He will draw the same matchup again on Friday, and it figures to be a good one for fantasy purposes. It leads the slate with a 238.0-point total, and the Hawks are listed as just 1.5-point road favorites. That suggests a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair, which tend to be the best for fantasy purposes.

Monte Morris returned to the Wizards’ lineup in their last game, but he was limited to 16.5 minutes off the bench. It’s possible he returns to the starting lineup on Friday, but there should still be some extra playing time available for Delon Wright. Wright has been an outstanding source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.67 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Mikal Bridges was the ultimate glue guy during his tenure with the Suns. He provided outstanding perimeter defense and was a capable 3-point shooter, but he left most of the offensive responsibilities to guys like Chris Paul and Devin Booker.

In Brooklyn, Bridges has gotten to put his full offensive skill set on display, and it has been awesome to see. He barely played in the team’s last contest, but he racked up at least 43.75 DraftKings points in five of his prior six games. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute for the year, but that figure has skyrocketed to 1.24 over the past month.

Bridges and the Nets draw a decent matchup vs. the Timberwolves, who have played at the sixth-fastest pace this season. There’s also a chance they could be without a few key contributors. Spencer Dinwiddie is expected to play after missing the last contest, but Nic Claxton, Cam Johnson, and Royce O’Neale are still to be determined. If any of those players are ruled out, Bridges could be asked to do a bit more than usual.

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Value

Tyrese Maxey stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Maxey has returned to playing huge minutes for Philly, and he’s responded with at least 30.0 FanDuel points in five straight games. He’s gone for at least 42.3 FanDuel points in two of those contests, so he has some upside as well.

The 76ers are another team with an elite matchup on Friday. They’re taking on the Blazers, who have posted the second-worst defensive rating in basketball over their past 15 games. The 76ers are currently implied for 121.25 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.

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Fast Break

Bradley Beal has played some of his best basketball recently. He’s scored at least 45.25 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s increased his production to 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is never a fun player to roster, but he’s worth considering against the Spurs. He’s projected for more than 31 minutes at just $4,500 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.54 (per the Trends tool). He’s a good bet to return value in a juicy matchup.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards has not been at his best of late, scoring 41.0 FanDuel points or fewer in five straight games. None of those performances have been disastrous, but he’s displayed minimal upside at his elevated salary.

However, Edward’s price tag has started to trend back in the right direction. He’s down to just $8,800 on FanDuel for Friday’s matchup vs. the Nets, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. That makes him a viable buy-low target. Edwards has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.08 when priced below $9,000 this season, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends. Small forward is one of the weakest positions on most slates, but Edwards provides a solid floor with some upside.

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Value

Michael Porter Jr. has been really quiet for most of the year. He can be easy to overlook playing alongside Nikola Jokic and Murray in Denver, but he’s put his scoring prowess on display recently. He has two performances with at least 40.5 DraftKings points in his past five games, and he’s increased his production to 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

MPJ leads all small forwards with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.02 on DraftKings, and he’s a bit underpriced at $5,700. It results in a Bargain Rating of 80%, and Porter stands out as one of the best values at the position in our NBA Models.

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Fast Break

Jaden McDaniels has been a solid contributor for the Timberwolves of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight contests. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last game, finishing with just 14.25 DraftKings points, but he played less than 26 minutes in a blowout loss. He’s expected to return to his usual workload on Friday, and he’ll have a nice bounce-back opportunity vs. the Nets.

Cameron Johnson has some appeal for the Nets if he returns to the lineup. His $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%, and like Bridges, he’s taken on a much larger offensive role than he ever did in Phoenix. He’s scored at least 31.5 FanDuel points in four of his past six games, and he’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Pascal Siakam stands out as another excellent buy-low target on FanDuel. He has struggled of late, posting a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, but it hasn’t been due to a lack of opportunities. He’s coming off more than 41.1 minutes in his last contest, and with the Raptors looking to improve their postseason positioning, that kind of workload should be the norm for Siakam moving forward. He’s currently projected for just under 37 minutes in our NBA Models, and that feels conservative.

Siakam is also down to just $8,900 on FanDuel, and Siakam has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.82 with a comparable salary this season. The Lakers have played at the second-fastest pace this season, so this is a tremendous pace-up spot for Siakam as well.

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Value

Royce O’Neale is the preferred Nets’ value option on DraftKings if he’s able to return to the lineup. He’s currently projected for around 26 minutes in our NBA Models, but he’s played at least 32.7 minutes in two of his past three games. That gives him a little more upside than his $3,800 salary suggests. He’s capable of racking up fantasy points in a bunch of different ways, and he finished with 35.75 DraftKings points thanks to a double-double in his last contest.

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Fast Break

Kyle Anderson continues to get the job done for the Timberwolves. He’s locked into at least 30 minutes in games that stay competitive, and he’s increased his production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s a nice combination for someone who costs just $5,800 on DraftKings.

Kristaps Porzingis shouldn’t garner much ownership on this slate, but he’s displayed a solid ceiling recently. He’s gone off for at least 50.2 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, including 55.5 FanDuel points vs. the Hawks on Wednesday. Atlanta has struggled at defending the paint and rebounding this season, so there’s no reason Porzingis can’t put together another big game.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

The center position is absolutely loaded for a six-game slate, with Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Anthony Davis possessing the top three salaries on DraftKings. Of the three, Jokic stands out as the best in our NBA Models.

Jokic has slowed down just a tad recently, failing to crack 49 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. However, his average of 1.68 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is still the clear top mark at the position.

A matchup vs. the Spurs could be just what the doctor ordered. He racked up 60.5 DraftKings points in his last meeting vs. the Spurs, which also happened to be in San Antonio. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, so Jokic seems poised for a ceiling game.

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Value

It’s hard to find a true “value” at center, which is another reason why paying up for one of the top center options makes sense. Jokic ranks first in projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and second on DraftKings, so he stands out as the best per-dollar option despite his big price tag.

However, Rudy Gobert rivals Jokic from a value perspective on DraftKings, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. Gobert has started to look like the Jazz version of himself recently, increasing his production to 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Perhaps reuniting with old friend Mike Conley has brought out the best in him. His matchup vs. the Nets is also solid, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.93.

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Fast Break

Jakob Poeltl has been a beast since returning to Canada. He’s increased his production to 1.40 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.23 over his past 10 games. The Lakers have struggled with opposing centers this season, giving Poeltl an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.86. His price tag has increased of late, but he still stands out as one of the better options at the position.

Poeltl is showing up as an edge in our new PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

Playing another stud center alongside Jokic is definitely viable on this slate. On FanDuel, Anthony Davis can be used as a power forward, and his production in games without LeBron James is impressive. He’s averaged 54.11 FanDuel points in 13 contests without his star teammate, and he’s seen a team-high +5.5% usage bump in those outings.