Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Use promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props on Monkey Knife Fight.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Friday’s slate is going to be wild. There was a ton of player movement before yesterday’s trade deadline, so we’re going to have to see who is available to suit up for their new teams. It seems unlikely that most of the players who were moved will be available, but there could be a few exceptions.
The Blazers were active before the deadline, shipping out Josh Hart and Gary Payton II. Those moves shouldn’t have a huge impact on Damian Lillard, but Lillard was already carrying one of the largest workloads in the league. He’s played at least 39.7 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s projected for another 39+ minutes on Friday. Lillard has also increased his effectiveness over the past month, averaging 1.56 DraftKings points per minute. Only Luka Doncic has been better among Friday’s point guards, and he’s significantly more expensive.
Lillard also draws a solid matchup vs. the Thunder. They’ve played at the fourth-fastest pace this season, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 121.25 ranks first on the slate.
Value
The Jazz shipped Mike Conley to Minnesota as part of a three-team trade on Thursday, and it seems unlikely that Russell Westbrook will be a part of the team’s plans moving forward. That leaves Collin Sexton as the team’s new starting point guard. Sexton has been solid in limited minutes this season, averaging 0.93 DraftKings points per minute, and he should see a big uptick in playing time vs. the Raptors. He’s currently projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models, making him an absolute steal on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
The Clippers have some reinforcements on the way, but Eric Gordon, Mason Plumlee, and Bones Hyland are all unlikely to play vs. the Bucks. With John Wall, Reggie Jackson, and Luke Kennard gone and Kawhi Leonard out for injury management, Terance Mann should be looking at a sizable workload. Mann has increased his assist rate by +6.9% with Leonard, Wall, and Jackson off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.79 DraftKings points per minute. He’s expected to play around 35 minutes, making him another solid value option.
Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo remain out for the Heat, so Gabe Vincent should continue to provide value as the team’s starting point guard. He racked up 26.3 FanDuel points in 37.3 minutes on Wednesday, and he’s projected for a similar workload vs. the Rockets. Houston ranks just 28th in defensive efficiency, so Vincent has plenty of appeal in that spot.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Paul George has been relatively quiet recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on DraftKings. However, the team is going to need him to pick up the slack on Friday. He’s seen a whopping +9.1% usage bump with Leonard, Wall, and Jackson off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.77 DraftKings points per minute. That’s over a sample size of 105 minutes, which is not insignificant.
George’s price tag has also plummeted across the industry, and he’s down to just $8,200 on FanDuel. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.13 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool), so there’s plenty working in his favor on this slate.
Value
The Celtics didn’t make a ton of moves at the deadline, but they’re dealing with a host of injuries. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart have been ruled out, while Jayson Tatum is questionable with an illness.
Even if Tatum can go, Derrick White should be asked to do much more than usual. He’s seen a +4.4% usage bump with Brown and Smart off the floor this season, and he’s increased his assist rate by a team-high +7.1%. Overall, he’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario.
White is currently projected for more than 36 minutes in an elite matchup vs. the Hornets. They rank seventh in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, so the Celtics should be able to put plenty of points on the scoreboard.
Fast Break
Anfernee Simons is another member of the Blazers who warrants consideration. He benefits from the same elite matchup as Lillard, and he’s been outstanding of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.17 over that time frame. He’s also seen a +6.5% usage bump with Hart and Jusuf Nurkic off the court this season, and his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
The Pistons opened up a bit of additional playing time on the wing after trading away Saddiq Bey and Kevin Knox. That could give Alec Burks a slight bump in playing time in an outstanding matchup vs. the Spurs. Burks has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $4,200 salary.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
If Jayson Tatum is able to suit up, it’s hard not to like him vs. the Hornets. He’s gotten pretty pricy across the industry, but he has been worth his salary more often than not. Tatum ranks second in the league with an average of 37.3 minutes per game, and he’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute. That’s a pretty appealing combination.
Tatum should be even busier than usual given the team’s injury situation. He’s taken on a larger role as a distributor with Brown and Smart off the floor this season, increasing his assist rate by +4.5%. His usage rate remains roughly the same, so he’s a bit more well-rounded in that scenario. Tatum leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he’s projected for at least seven more points than every other small forward. On a slate with plenty of value, that has appeal.
Value
Nassir Little hasn’t been a huge part of the Blazers’ rotation this season, but he should be a much bigger part of the picture moving forward. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and he’s projected for just under 28 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, minimum-priced players have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.69 with a comparable minute projection. Little has also averaged 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s not awful on a per-minute basis.
Fast Break
Norman Powell is another member of the Clippers who should be busy on Friday. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s increased his production to 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with Leonard, Wall, and Jackson off the floor this season, so he should be able to return value at $5,700.
Jimmy Butler has scored at least 42.5 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Lowry. He’s played 10 games without Lowry this season, and he’s averaged 44.95 FanDuel points in those contests. That’s enough to justify a selection at $8,800 on FanDuel, especially in an outstanding matchup.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on a mission recently. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 70.5 DraftKings points in four of them. Overall, he’s increased his production to a ridiculous 1.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
The Bucks did secure some help with Jae Crowder at the trade deadline, but he’s not expected to make his debut on Friday. Bobby Portis also remains out of the lineup, so Antetokounmpo should continue to thrive. He demolished the Clippers for 54 points and 19 boards in their first meeting this season, so he can clearly find success in this matchup.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, the Clippers have a few appealing PF options. However, Marcus Morris stands out as the best of the bunch. He’s projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s seen a +5.8% usage bump with Leonard, Wall, and Jackson off the floor this season. He’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, so he’s underpriced at $4,300.
Fast Break
Isaiah Stewart’s playing time should be pretty secure with James Wiseman not expected to make his debut on Friday. He’s played at least 28.1 minutes in four straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each. He’s had at least 34.25 DraftKings points in two of those contests, so he has nice upside at just $5,100.
Jerami Grant is going to play all the minutes he can handle for the Blazers on Friday. He’s projected for more than 39 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark at the PF position. He’s also very affordable at just $6,600 on FanDuel. Grant has averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season, so that’s an appealing combination.
Get $100 Sign-up Bonus!
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Joel Embiid headlines the center position, but Domantas Sabonis stands out as the stronger option on FanDuel. He’s been priced down to just $9,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he draws a superior matchup vs. the Mavericks. Dallas has played at a slow pace this season, but Sabonis still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.43. He’s a solid buy-low option, especially at a projected ownership of less than five percent.
Value
With Mason Plumlee now gone, the coast is clear for Mark Williams to take over as the Hornets’ top center. He will likely still split minutes with Nick Richards and possibly JT Thor, but Williams’ arrow is clearly pointing up. He’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but he’s been capped at around 18 minutes on most nights. He’s projected for closer to 24 minutes on Friday, giving him a sizable boost in value.
Fast Break
Zach Collins is another clear winner from the trade deadline. Jakob Poeltl has been shipped back to Toronto, leaving Collins as the top center in San Antonio. Like Williams, he’s still not going to play all the center minutes, but he should see a nice boost in that department. Collins has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute for the year, making him one of the strongest plays of the day at $4,000.
Jalen Duren has been extremely impressive as a rookie, gobbling up rebounds like a young Dennis Rodman. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s in a phenomenal spot Friday vs. the Spurs. Duren owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.57 on DraftKings, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
