NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Friday, Dec. 2): Jazz Provide Value in Matchup vs. Pacers

Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Ja Morant is priced properly on DraftKings, but he remains way too cheap on FanDuel. His $9,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and Morant has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.69 over his past 10 games. He’s also seen a nice spike in value with Desmond Bane off the floor, increasing his usage rate by +2.9%. Bane remains out of the lineup for Friday’s matchup vs. the 76ers, so Morant should continue to provide a bit more value than usual.

Morant is coming off a poor performance in his last outing, finishing with just 39.0 FanDuel points vs. the Timberwolves. However, he shot just 7-20 from the field and added seven turnovers. That stands out as a clear outlier, with Morant scoring at least 44.9 FanDuel points in seven of his previous eight games. Overall, this is a nice buy-low opportunity.

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Value

Collin Sexton has taken over as the Jazz’s starting point guard with Mike Conley out of the lineup. He’s started each of the past six games, and he’s averaged 16.3 points and 6.2 assists over that stretch. Sexton has unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 32.0 DraftKings points in four of them.

Despite his recent success, his salary has remained pretty stagnant. He also draws one of the best possible matchups Friday vs. the Pacers, who rank second in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency. Utah’s implied team total of 121.5 ranks second on the slate, making Sexton an elite target across the industry.

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Fast Break

The Suns are another team with an elite matchup. They’re taking on the Rockets, and they rank third on the slate in implied team total. Chris Paul also remains out of the lineup, so Cameron Payne should continue to provide value at just $6,400 on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for just under 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s an even better value on FanDuel, where his $6,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Dyson Daniels was the Pelicans’ first-round pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, and he’s taken on a larger role for the team recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, culminating in 39.1 FanDuel points over 31.3 minutes on Wednesday. Daniels isn’t expected to play quite as much Friday – C.J. McCollum is expected to return to the lineup – but he’s clearly solidified his role in the rotation.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Jordan Clarkson isn’t priced like a true stud, but he has the potential for stud-like production vs. the Pacers. He’s coming off his best game of the season in his last outing, racking up 33 points and 46.5 DraftKings points vs. the Clippers. He’s increased his production to 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with Conley off the floor, and like Sexton, he should benefit from the elite matchup vs. the Pacers. Clarkson is another player who stands out as a phenomenal value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%.

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Value

Joe Harris has not had the type of shooting season you would expect. He’s knocked down just 33.6% of his 3-point attempts, which is nearly 10% below his career average. However, Harris did knock down four of six 3-point attempts in his last contest, so perhaps he’s started to turn the corner. He’s also scored at least 25.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.

Harris remains dirt cheap at $4,000, especially considering the number of minutes he typically plays. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.10 (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

Tyrese Haliburton is currently questionable for the Pacers, and his absence would make Bennedict Mathurin an interesting value. Mathurin has increased his usage rate by +6.6% with Haliburton and Chris Duarte off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. He would likely still come off the bench in that scenario, but he would have the potential to play a few additional minutes.

Terry Rozier has the potential to be a bit under-owned on this slate. He hasn’t been particularly effective of late, but the Hornets are extremely banged up. The team is currently without LaMelo Ball, Dennis Smith Jr., and Gordon Hayward, leaving the team basically devoid of playmakers. Rozier has increased his usage, assist, and rebound rate with all three players off the floor this season, giving him more potential than usual.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Keldon Johnson has really struggled to shoot the ball in recent contests. He’s shot just 27.4% from the field and 20.4% from 3-point range, both of which are well below his career averages. That’s caused his price tag to decrease across the industry, making him a prime buy-low target vs. the Pelicans.

Johnson has shown the ability to pay off his reduced salary even without making shots. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games while making just 15 of 50 shots from the field. If he ever regains his ability to shoot the ball, he has the potential to destroy his current price tag.

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Value

On the other side of that matchup, Trey Murphy III has provided tremendous value for the shorthanded Pelicans of late. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.68 in three straight games, including at least 34.2 FanDuel points in his past two contests.

He should continue to start in place of Ingram, and Murphy has displayed a proficiency for knocking down the long ball. He’s made 41.3% of his 3-point attempts this season, and he had six 3-pointers in his last contest. That’s allowed him to average 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s expected to see around 34 minutes in an elite matchup vs. the Spurs. He’s still too cheap across the industry.

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Fast Break

With Ben Simmons back on the sidelines, Royce O’Neale has resumed his role as an important part of the Nets’ rotation. He’s racked up at least 36.3 minutes and 31.5 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he’s capable of contributing in every category across the board. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.8% with Simmons off the floor this season, so he has the potential for increased per-minute productivity in addition to increased volume.

Speaking of players that can do a little bit of everything, Bruce Brown remains underpriced for the Nuggets. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his role is secure with Michael Porter Jr. out of the lineup. He’s played at least 34.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s projected for a similar workload on Friday.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Evan Mobley has had a quiet season after an excellent rookie campaign, but he’s seen a boost in value recently with Jarrett Allen out of the lineup. He’s increased his rebound rate to 19.6% over the past three games, and he’s scored at least 40.75 DraftKings points in two of them. The lone exception was his last contest, but he played just 23.8 minutes in a blowout win. He still finished with 32.0 DraftKings points, so his per-minute efficiency was excellent.

He draws a strong matchup vs. the Magic on Friday. Orlando has been a solid rebounding team for most of the year, but they’ve been killed on the glass in their past two games. Mo Bamba has been out of the lineup in both contests, and he’s officially questionable vs. the Cavs. Orlando also ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, so if Bamba is out once again, Mobley should feast on the interior.

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Value

The Spurs are currently without Jakob Poeltl and Jeremy Sochan in the frontcourt, leaving the team very thin at power forward and center. They’ve also listed Doug McDermott and Josh Richardson as doubtful, so the team has plenty of minutes available on Friday.

Keita Bates-Diop should see a nice spike in value. He’s currently projected for nearly 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season. That’s a nice combination for someone who costs just $3,900.

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Fast Break

Kristaps Porzingis has turned in back-to-back monster performances. He finished with 27 points and 19 rebounds in his last outing, and he had 41 points in the game prior. His price tag has come up across the industry, but he still seems reasonably priced for a matchup vs. the Hornets. He’s averaged 1.29 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2.

Lauri Markkanen has cooled down a bit after a torrid stretch to start the year, causing his salary to dip to $7,500 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 90%, making him a strong option vs. the Pacers. Markkanen has posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 1.1 FanDuel points per minute this season.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

I am a sucker for Myles Turner. He’s displayed a cavernous floor so far this season, scoring 17.0 DraftKings points or fewer in back-to-back games. However, he also has an elite ceiling, evidenced by multiple games with at least 55 DraftKings points. Overall, he’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season, but the way he’s gotten there has been extremely unconventional.

Still, there are reasons to believe in Turner on Friday. For starters, the Jazz are one of the best possible matchups for a center. Turner owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.6, which is easily the top mark at the position. His price tag also comes with an 86% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.

Turner would also see a bump in usage if Haliburton is ruled out. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.5% with Duarte and Haliburton off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.65 DraftKings points per minute.

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Value

Nic Claxton disappointed fantasy players on Wednesday, snapping a streak of four consecutive games with a positive Plus/Minus. He’ll look to start a new streak Friday vs. the Raptors, and he’s a great bet to do so on DraftKings. His $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%, and he’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He played fewer minutes than usual in his last outing, but he’s expected to get back to 30 minutes on Friday.

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Fast Break

Kelly Olynyk has been another nice source of value at the position recently. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle for the Jazz, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games, yet his price has barely budged.

Zach Collins is also worth consideration in the Spurs’ frontcourt. He’s averaged 1.18 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 27.1 minutes in his last outing. Collins is always one play away from an injury, but he possesses excellent upside at his midrange price tag.