NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Friday, Apr. 7): Can Luka Carry Mavs Into Postseason?

Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Mavericks are currently fighting for their playoff lives. They’re currently one game behind the Thunder for the final spot in the play-in tournament, and one more loss will officially eliminate them from contention. That said, they’re still giving Kyrie Irving the night off for injury management. Christian Wood and Tim Hardaway Jr. are also going to be sidelined. You have to love the modern NBA.

That’s going to leave a massive burden on Luka Doncic’s shoulders. Luka hasn’t been at his best recently, but he’s increased his usage rate to 42.8% with Irving, Wood, THJ, and Spencer Dinwiddie off the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.71 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, so he should bring significantly more upside than usual to the table.

The matchup with the Bulls should also be solid. They’re already locked into the No. 10 spot in the East, so they could be without some of their top players.

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Value

The Bucks have officially secured the top spot in the Eastern Conference, so they will unsurprisingly rest a few key veterans Friday vs. the Grizzlies. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez will all be out of the lineup, which will give some of their other players a chance to shine.

Jevon Carter should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by +9.2% with all four players off the floor this season, and he’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in that split. In four full games without Giannis, Holiday, and Middleton, Carter leads the team with an average of 34.1 minutes per game, and he’s averaged 36.94 DraftKings points in those contests. He’s another player that stands out as underpriced across the industry but is particularly cheap on FanDuel.

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Fast Break

Jalen Suggs is a strong value on DraftKings, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. Suggs has also turned in some big performances of late, scoring at least 34.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. He’s not seeing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Magic also have half their team on the injury report as questionable, and Suggs would get a bump if any of those players is ruled out.

The 76ers will give Joel Embiid the night off on Friday, and they could be without some of their other top players. That includes Tyrese Maxey, who is currently dealing with a neck injury. However, Maxey has elite upside if he’s in the lineup. He’s seen a +5.0% usage bump with Embiid off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.07 DraftKings points per minute.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

It might feel odd to pay $9,000 for Immanuel Quickley on DraftKings, but he’s been worth that extravagant price tag of late. He’s always been an outstanding player when he gets extended playing time, and he’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. With Jalen Brunson, R.J. Barrett, and Julius Randle out of the lineup on Wednesday, Quickley erupted for 66.5 DraftKings points over just under 40 minutes.

All three of those players could be out of the lineup again on Friday – Brunson and Randle are out, Barrett is questionable – and it would be tough to pass up on Quickley in that scenario. He’s seen a +8.6% usage bump with all three players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute.

Quickley is viable on DraftKings, but he’s an absolute steal on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.

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Value

Svi Mykhailiuk is another player who has seen a big price increase recently, but he’s carrying the shorthanded Hornets at the moment. They’re without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington, and Kelly Oubre, and even Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable for Friday’s matchup vs. the Rockets. Mykhailiuk has played plenty of minutes in their absence, racking up at least 33.2 minutes in six straight games, and he’s scored at least 34.5 FanDuel points in three of his past four. He’s underpriced at $6,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.

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Fast Break

There’s going to be plenty of value available on this slate, and Jay Scrubb is a viable punt play at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. Playing a guy named “Scrubb” might not be the most appealing prospect in DFS, but he’s averaged a very respectable 0.85 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 22 minutes in our NBA Models, and that figure could skyrocket if the Magic rule out a bunch of players before tip-off.

If DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine are ruled out for the Bulls, Coby White would become one of the strongest options on the slate. He’s played well recently, averaging 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he could see a bunch of playing time if DeRozan and LaVine are unavailable.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The Pelicans are still fighting for a guaranteed postseason spot in the Western Conference, and Brandon Ingram has been fantastic of late. He’s increased his production to 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for just under 36 minutes on Friday.

The Pelicans have a subpar matchup on paper vs. the Knicks, who have played at one of the slowest paces in the league this season. However, they didn’t look like remotely the same team without Brunson, Randle, and Barrett in their last contest. They surrendered 129 points to the Pacers, so this matchup could have some sneaky upside.

Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Ingram’s fantasy prospects:

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Value

MarJon Beauchamp was the No. 24 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, and he should get plenty of opportunities to shine on Friday. Beauchamp has averaged just under 30 minutes in three games without Giannis, Holiday, and Middleton this season, and he’s responded with 23.33 DraftKings points per game. That would be enough to pay off his current salary, but he has the potential for a bit more. He’s increased his production to 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, albeit in limited playing time.

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Fast Break

Justin Holiday has been a terrible per-minute producer this season, averaging just 0.58 DraftKings points per minute. That said, he’s impossible to ignore at the minimum for a depleted Mavs squad. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.04 (per the Trends tool).

Tari Eason has gotten the opportunity to play a bit more recently, and he’s coming off just under 33 minutes in his last outing. Eason has been an excellent per-minute player in his rookie season, averaging 1.00 DraftKings points per minute. If he sees another expanded workload on Friday, he’ll have a chance to deliver nice value at $5,100.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

I’m not sure why Bobby Portis doesn’t qualify for a day off for the Bucks, but he’s not currently listed on the injury report. If he’s in the lineup, he’s going to be the team’s focal point offensively with all their big guns sidelined. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.3% with all of the currently unavailable members of the Bucks off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. He’s projected for around 32 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be more than enough for Portis to return value.

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Value

J.T. Thor has taken over as the Hornets’ starting power forward with Washington out of the lineup, and he’s played at least 33.9 minutes in back-to-back games. He struggled to just 10.0 DraftKings points in his first start, but he bounced back with a much better 27.75 DraftKings points in his last outing. Thor has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so that feels like a truer representation of his fantasy potential.

The Rockets also represent a phenomenal matchup, ranking 29th in the league in defensive efficiency.

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Fast Break

Isaiah Jackson and Jalen Smith have alternated as the Pacers’ starting center with Myles Turner out of the lineup, and it should be Jackson’s turn to start. Jackson is capable of racking up fantasy points quickly, averaging 1.14 FanDuel points per minute, so he’s an appealing option any time he’s expected to see extended minutes.

Tobias Harris is underpriced on FanDuel, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s another member of the squad who should benefit from Embiid’s absence, and he would see an even larger bump if Maxey or James Harden are also ruled out.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Vucevic has been the No. 3 option for the Bulls this season, which has led to inconsistent fantasy production. However, he’s still capable of racking up fantasy points when given the opportunity. If DeRozan and LaVine are out of the lineup on Friday, he would become a priority option at center. He already stands out as a solid play on FanDuel, where his 13 Pro Trends rank second at the position. He’s barely played any minutes this season with DeRozan and LaVine off the floor, but he should take on a much larger usage rate in that scenario.

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Value

Mark Huff has turned in back-to-back strong outings for the Wizards, finishing with 34.3 and 36.8 FanDuel points. The team will be equally shorthanded on Friday, with Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis, Deni Avdija, and Monte Morris all out of the lineup. He’s averaged a stout 1.19 FanDuel points per minute in his limited playing time this season, so he should continue to produce with consistent minutes.

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Fast Break

Clint Capela has put together some solid games recently, and he managed 26.5 DraftKings points in just 15.1 minutes in his last contest. He struggled with foul trouble before the game turned into a blowout, but he should return to his usual workload on Friday. His per-minute production has been up recently, and his $6,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s also projected for less than five percent ownership, and the Hawks’ implied team total of 123.5 ranks first on the slate.