Friday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET with a pair of Game 6’s from the Western Conference. The Warriors and Lakers both have chances to advance with a win on their home court while the Kints and Grizzlies will be looking to set up potential Game 7’s on Sunday.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Proven playoff performers are always key in the postseason, and Stephen Curry has continued his impressive legacy with a great series against the young, upstart Kings. He has the highest ceiling projection of all point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel, even though he isn’t the highest-priced point guard on either site.
Curry has averaged 41.8 DraftKings points and 38.9 FanDuel points per game over the series so far, producing 1.16 DraftKings points and 1.08 FanDuel points per minute. While those rates are actually below his season-long marks, he has been playing plenty of minutes to help him still post over 40 DraftKings points per game.
He had a series-high eight assists in Wednesday’s road win and came up huge coming down the stretch. While De’Aaron Fox and Ja Morant are both exciting young talents and may be “what’s next,” Curry has shown he’s not ready to pass the torch just yet. He and the Warriors will definitely understand the importance of ending this series at home, and I expect a vintage Chef Curry performance Friday night.
Curry actually has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings, so he actually seems underpriced given his projections.
Value
The only point guard with a higher Projected Plus/Minus than Steph on both FanDuel and DraftKings is D’Angelo Russell. D-Lo has outproduced salary-based expectations in three of the five games in this series and is coming off a double-double of 11 points and 10 assists in Game 5’s loss. Even in that game, though, he shot just 4-for-11, so there’s still plenty of room for improvement if he really gets going.
Russell has played at least 29 minutes in each game in this series and has a usage rate of 22.2%, which is the third-highest on the team behind only the Lakers’ two megastars. While there are other Lakers role players who have popped up with big games discussed below, don’t overlook Russell as a value play since he’s still getting plenty of work to be the third option in L.A.’s offense.
Fast Break
It’s so hard to argue against Fox and Morant at point guard since both have been brilliant at times in the playoffs. Morant has his best game of the series in Game 5 with 31 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists to help Memphis force a Game 6. He could definitely go off again and is projected to have over 30% usage once again in this contest.
Fox showed on Wednesday that he will not go quietly in these playoffs. He was unstoppable and finished with 24 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds despite playing with a fractured hand. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the five games in this series, averaging 1.39 DraftKings points and 1.35 FanDuel points per minute. Those numbers are especially impressive compared to Curry’s per-minute numbers.
While I think Fox brings a higher ceiling than any other point guard, Steph still stands out as a stronger play on this slate at home since he has come up huge in this same spot so many times in the past.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
While Morant and Dillon Brooks have been snagging headlines in this series against the Lakers, Desmond Bane has been making a strong case to be a bigger part of the Grizzlies offense. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all shooting guards on DraftKings, where he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Bane has played more minutes than any other Grizzlies player in this series and has really stepped up in the two most recent games, scoring over 30 points and exceeding salary-based expectations by over 12 DraftKings points and over 15 FanDuel points in those two contests. He has taken at least 18 shots in four of the five games this series and made multiple three-pointers in four of those games as well.
If the Grizz are going to force a Game 7, they’ll need another big game from Bane. With Morant playing through injury and Brooks shot still MIA, Bane has to help carry the load. He has proven up to the task the past few games and has been one of the most consistent scoring threats for Memphis in this series.
Bane also gets a boost from being at a position where there isn’t much depth on this slate. He matches 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and no other shooting guard matches more than seven. There have been other shooting guards who have had a big game here or there, but none can challenge Bane’s upside or consistency.
On DraftKings, Bane also comes with a very attractive 96% Bargain Rating.
Value
While he hasn’t been quite as consistent as Bane, Malik Monk has been key to the Kings competing in this series with the Warriors. Monk has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of the five games in this series and eight of his past 10 dating back to the regular season.
Monk has produced 1.08 DraftKings points and 1.05 FanDuel points per minute in the series, which is the third-best mark on the team behind only Fox and Domantas Sabonis. He only had four points in Game 3, so there’s not much of a floor, but other than that, he has been excellent. He flashed a high ceiling with 32 points in Game 1 and followed that with 21 points on Wednesday in Game 5.
If you can’t afford to build around Bane, Monk is a solid alternative and still comes with a high ceiling. On DraftKings, he has a 92% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Klay Thompson had a great finish to Game 5 and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel, where he offers significant savings ($1,600) from Bane.
The highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel belongs to Dillon Brooks, but it’s hard to trust him to start hitting shots when he’s shooting just 30% for the playoffs. He is a boom-or-bust play that can work for GPPs since he’ll be on the floor, but Bane is a much better option.
For the Lakers, Austin Reaves has flashed a high ceiling and has out-produced salary-based expectations in four of the five games in the series. His salary has spiked to $6,600 on FanDuel, though, which takes a little bit of his value potential away. I almost had him highlighted over Monk, but that salary bump would mean he would have to really go off to return value on FanDuel. He’s a better play on DraftKings, where he has an 84% Bargain Rating and can be used at either guard spot.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Despite a down Game 5, LeBron James remains the class of the available options at small forward. In his 20th year in the league, I guess we can allow one bad game before we give up on him from a fantasy perspective.
Like Curry, he still has so much playoff cred that I’m backing him to bounce back in Game 6. Even with a ho-hum 15 points and 10 rebounds in his most recent game, The King is still producing 1.33 DraftKings points and 1.29 FanDuel points per minute through the first five games of the series. He leads the Lakers with a 27.3% usage rate and is projected for that mark again in Game 6.
While he probably won’t post 20+ points and 20+ rebounds again as he did in the Lakers home win in Game 5, James has posted a double-double in four of the five games in the series and has also been contributing plenty of assists (5.0 per game). A triple-double isn’t out of the question, especially since he’ll be motivated to quickly erase Wednesday’s game from memory and get a little rest before the next round instead of having to travel back to Memphis for Game 7.
Value
The Warriors have gotten very strong play all series from Andrew Wiggins, although he has been eclipsed a little bit by his higher profile and more controversial teammates. His production has been rock solid, with 0.98 DraftKings points and 1.01 FanDuel points per minute.
He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on this slate on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel behind Brooks and Keegan Murray (discussed below).
Wiggins hasn’t blown up in any one game, but he has scored at least 17 points in each contest and out-produced salary-based expectations in each contest with an average Plus/Minus of 9.9 FanDuel points and 3.8 DraftKings points per game.
Wiggins has played the third-most minutes in the series for Golden State and is projected for 37.5 minutes again on Friday.
Fast Break
If you need a play for under $4K, Donte DiVincenzo is a good punt play at this spot. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position at DraftKings and is also in the top five on FanDuel.
Harrison Barnes missed the potential game-winner in Game 4 for the Kings and didn’t fare much better in Game 5. He is getting plenty of minutes but continues to struggle to get his shot to drop against his former team.
For Memphis, Luke Kennard was providing some nice spacing before having to leave Game 5 with left shoulder soreness which has him questionable for Friday’s matchup as well. If he’s not able to play through the issue, there could be more work for John Konchar, who has shown a high ceiling with boom-or-bust potential off the Grizzlies’ bench.
Malik Beasley is another punt play to keep an eye on since he can catch fire off the bench. He hasn’t had much of an impact in this series yet, but he always brings upside.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jaren Jackson Jr. has the highest ceiling projection, median projection, and floor projection of all power forwards on DraftKings and misses the top spot in Projected Plus/Minus by less than 0.15 DraftKings points. If you have the salary to afford him, he’s a great option on DraftKings, and he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel.
In the five games in this series, Jackson has averaged 38.5 DraftKings points and 38.7 FanDuel points, trailing only Morant. He has posted a double-double in each of the past two games and is averaging a robust 2.4 blocks per game in the series, which especially boosts his production on FanDuel.
Like Bane, JJJ has to step up and carry Memphis to a Game 7 with Ja ailing and Brooks struggling. Jackson has shown the potential for a monster game and really only fell short in Game 3 when the Grizzlies were blown out without Ja. With Morant on the floor, Jackson becomes an ideal third option behind Ja and Bane and can really fill up your fantasy box score with boards and blocks.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy sims are also high on Jackson:
Value
Kings rookie Keegan Murray has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings and has found his footing as the series has progressed. He only had 7.0 DraftKings points in 24 minutes in Game 1 but has stepped up lately with 35.75 DraftKings points in a breakout Game 4 and a solid 18.5 DraftKings points on 10 points and six rebounds in Game 5.
With Harrison Barnes struggling, Murray could get even more work in Game 6. He has played over 32 minutes in each of the two most recent games for Sacramento and should keep getting plenty of run.
Murray has a 75% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is a great way to mix in some young talent on the rise with your proven producers on Friday.
Fast Break
Both LeBron and Anthony Davis (highlighted below) bring power forward eligibility on FanDuel and rank 1-2 in terms of ceiling projection. If you like other value plays at small forward or center, moving them into the power forward spot in your FanDuel lineup works well for lineup construction.
After big games to open the series, Rui Hachimura has faded in the three most recent contests. He still has a good ceiling but has fallen well below salary-based expectations in Game 4 and Game 5.
In an interesting shift, Memphis went to Santi Aldama for significant minutes in the second half of Game 5, and he responded with 17 DraftKings points during a critical part of the late third and early fourth quarter. He may have earned himself some extra work on Friday, especially if Kennard is sidelined.
Draymond Green was outstanding off the bench in Game 5, finishing with a season-high 21 points to go with seven assists and willing his team to a road win. His role as the heel is firmly established, and he will continue to get meaningful minutes, but his stats sometimes come and go. He has been priced way up, especially on FanDuel, so he doesn’t bring enough potential value to be worth the risk of paying almost $8K for him on that site.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
While Curry has the highest ceiling projection on DraftKings, Anthony Davis earns that honor on FanDuel, and he comes with outstanding projections across the board on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been strong throughout the series but had especially big games in Game 1, Game 3, and Game 5. While LeBron struggled, Davis had 31 points and 19 rebounds in his 35 minutes and kept the Lakers in the game most of the night.
For the series, Davis has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points and 1.48 FanDuel points per minute, better numbers than even LeBron. With the Grizzlies missing Steven Adams for this series, they haven’t had any answer for Davis.
He’s probably the safest play on the whole slate since, as long as he’s healthy, it’s hard to see him failing to get near 20 and 10.
Value
While he doesn’t have the potential to score nearly as many points as Davis, Kevon Looney has been a beast in this series for the Warriors. He has outperformed salary-based expectations by over 12 FanDuel points in each of the past three games.
In those three games, he has averaged 7.3 assists and 18.7 rebounds and gotten at least 20 boards twice. He has low usage but produces so much in other categories that it doesn’t really matter that he doesn’t score. If it weren’t for Green’s recent resurgence, it would look like Looney was the new version of Draymond’s typical stat production.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Looney has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate. Building around Looney and Curry is a nice way to stack the Warriors while still leaving some room for solid options in other spots.
Fast Break
It’s been a rough series for Domantas Sabonis, who has finished below salary-based expectations in every game of the series. Looney and Draymond have limited him, while Fox has taken more of the offensive workload in the backcourt.
Xavier Tillman had a monster game in Game 2, but he has been quiet since then and might lose some time to Aldama. He is still a solid option but doesn’t measure up to Looney’s upside.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NBA DFS: 5 Rules for Attacking the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
NBA DFS (Thursday, Nov. 3): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS (Friday, Nov. 25): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 14): Is Jordan Poole a Must-Play?
