Wednesday offers a small two-game slate with both No. 1 seeds in action tonight, starting with the Celtics hosting the Heat at 7pm ET. Following them will be the Thunder hosting the Pelicans. Both No. 1 seeds are looking to take a 2-0 lead.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Thunder escaped Game 1 against the Pelicans due to a game-winner from their superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Despite the clutch shot, Gilgeous-Alexander had a relatively quiet game with 28 points, six rebounds, and four assists. He shot 11-for-24 from the field and finished with only 40 DraftKings points. Expecting to bounce back in Game 2, Gilgeous-Alexander not only has the highest projected ceiling at the point guard position, but he has the highest on the entire slate.
The Pelicans have made life difficult for Gilgeous-Alexander this season. They had the sixth-highest defensive rating during the season, allowing only 110.7 points per game. Despite the difficult matchup, the Thunder are 7.5-point favorites, implied for a slate-high 109 points. It also helps that Gilgeous-Alexander is only $9,400, which is resulting in a 98% Bargain Rating.
Value
Playing against Gilgeous-Alexander is Pelicans’ point guard CJ McCollum. In Game 1, McCollum also struggled, scoring only 20 points while shooting 9-for-22 from the field and 2-for-9 from behind the arc. Looking to get back on track tonight, McCollum has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. The Pelicans will be getting Zion Williamson back from injury, but not yet. In his eight games without Zion this season, McCollum’s usage rate has jumped to 28.7% per game.
The Thunder have been a stout defense but also play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league. Despite a poor shooting game from McCollum, it took a great shot from Gilgeous-Alexander for the Thunder to survive Game 1. The best place to attack the Thunder’s defense is on the perimeter with McCollum. They allowed opponents to shoot 37.2% from downtown this year.
Fast Break
With the Heat still without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, they desperately need offensive firepower. In Game 1, they got that firepower from veteran point guard Delon Wright. He played 26 minutes off the bench and scored 17 points while shooting 6-for-7 from the field, including a perfect 5-for-5 from behind the arc. Priced at only $3,800, Wright has a 94% Bargain Rating. Projected to play a modest 22 minutes tonight, Wright is still popping as an elite value play in all formats.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Brandon Ingram is the perfect mix of ceiling and value according to our Player model. He has both the highest projected ceiling and the highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position. With Zion Williamson off the floor this season, Ingram has a team-high +4.56% usage rate and a +5.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Since coming to the Pelicans in 2019, Ingram has averaged over 20 points per game in every season. He has been a little consistent but has massive upside.
Similar to McCollum, Ingram struggled mightily in Game 1, scoring only 12 points and shooting 5-for-17 from the field. He was in the “Dorture” chamber, being guarded by Thunder forward Lu Dort most of the night. Even though this matchup is not ideal for Ingram, he is one of four players who is drawing over 50% projected ownership tonight. He is still a little too cheap.
Value
Sticking with the Pelicans’ perimeter players, Trey Murphy is one of the few players who had a pretty strong Game 1. He was able to use his outside shooting to keep the Pelicans in contention the entire game. Murphy shot 8-for-18 from the field and 5-for-12 from long distance, scoring 21 points. He added four rebounds, three blocks, and two assists and posted a near double-digit DraftKings Plus/Minus. Projected to play around 39 minutes, Murphy is another popular value play on this slate.
Murphy’s best asset is his perimeter shooting. Not only did he make five 3-pointers in Game 1, but Murphy is shooting 41.7% from behind the arc against the Thunder this season. He can stretch the floor and put pressure on the Thunder defense that already struggles containing the 3-point shot. At $6,700 with dual eligibility, Murphy is a strong value option.
Fast Break
After averaging a near double-double with 24.5 points and nine assists per game in the two Play-In games, Tyler Herro had a rough Game 1 against the Celtics, scoring only 11 points. He shot 4-for-13 from the field and had a very uncharacteristic 18.6% usage rate. Playing without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, expect Herro’s usage rate to climb back up to around the 30% range. Currently drawing less than 15% ownership, Herro is a great contrarian pay-up option on this two-game slate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum is coming off a 23-point, 10-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in Game 1 where the Celtics held on to a 20-point victory. It was the second time all season that Tatum surpassed double-digit assists and the 25th time he had double-digit rebounds. The versatile forward is still reasonably priced at $9,500 and is drawing around 40% ownership. Tatum has been the best player on a loaded Celtics roster all season long, and tonight will be no different. He is the one to prioritize.
After covering their massive spread in Game 1 easily, the Celtics are once again a huge 14.5-point home favorite against the Heat tonight. They are 38-4 at home this season, which is by far the best in the league. The Celtics and Tatum have had no trouble against the Heat’s fifth-ranked defense. He may not get another triple-double, but expect a big game from Tatum.
Value
The most popular player on this two-game slate is Thunder forward Lu Dort. With the emergence of several Thunder players, Dort took a backseat scoring the ball by only averaging 10.9 points per game this season. However, he was very efficient when he got his opportunity, shooting a career-best 39.4% from behind the arc. Dort’s best attribute is his defense. That is why he played 35 minutes and Game 1 and is projected for around 33 minutes tonight, which increases his value.
With a $4,500 price tag, Dort is the best value player to get exposure to for this slate. He was able to knock down two 3-pointers in Game 1 but failed to record double-digit points for just the second time in his last eight games. Playing that many minutes, it will be easy for Dort to exceed his salary-based expectations. He is popular, but for good reason at this price tag.
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With point guard and small forward eligibility, Jalen Williams has a slate-high 11 Pro Trends and a 91% Bargain Rating at his $6,800 salary. Williams stuffed the stat sheet in Game 1 but has more upside given how well he played throughout the regular season. He averaged a career-high 19.1 points per game and shot a career-best 54% from the field and 42.7% from downtown. Projected for around 50% ownership, Williams is another Thunder player worth paying up for on tonight’s slate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The most popular power forward on this two-game slate is Celtics’ star Kristaps Porzingis. Everything seemingly came easy for Porzingis in Game 1, scoring 18 points while shooting 7-for-13 from the field and 4-for-8 from distance. Showing the ability to score at all three levels and grab double-digit rebounds, Porzingis can contend with the top of the pricing tier while only being priced at $7,300. He is priced a little too cheap for his projected ceiling tonight.
In his first season with the Celtics, Porzingis averaged 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds per game while shooting a career-best 51.6% from the field. Despite the Heat being elite at protecting the paint, Porzingis has had success in this matchup. In their three regular season meetings, he is averaging 20.3 points per game, shooting 57.1% from the field and 50% from deep.
Value
Including Game 1, Jaime Jaquez Jr. has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in five-straight games for the Heat. The rookie from UCLA has been a valuable part of the Heat’s success, especially when Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are unable to play. Jaquez Jr. scored 16 points last game while shooting 8-for-16 from the field. In his last five games, Jaquez Jr. is averaging 18 points per game with a 27.9% usage rate. He will likely have a similar usage rate in this Game 2 matchup.
Jaquez Jr.’s salary continues to climb. He is now up to $5,800, but given the injury situation for the Heat and how well he has played recently, Jaquez Jr. is still a strong value option. He is projected to start and play around 36 minutes. Jaquez Jr. can stuff the stat sheet in a variety of ways and will be a critical part in the Heat’s success if they stay competitive tonight.
Fast Break
Herbert Jones shot 2-for-10 from the field but was still able to return value and almost put up a double-double with eight points and seven rebounds last game. He added four assists and one steal while playing 33 minutes for the Pelicans. His defense is needed to guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, so Jones’ playing time is secured. If he can knock down a couple of 3-pointers again and grab a bunch of rebounds, Jones will pay off his $5,100 salary. He is projected for 25-30% ownership.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
There are three centers on this slate that are projected for around the same ceiling. However, the cheapest of that trio is Thunder’s Chet Holmgren who is coming off a 15-point, 11-rebound double-double in Game 1. He added five blocks to record 44.75 DraftKings points. Priced under $7,000 for the second-straight game, Holmgren has a 98% Bargain Rating and is the most popular center to target. He has had a fantastic rookie season and has started out the playoffs on a strong note.
The Pelicans ranked 10th in rebounding percentage this season, but without Zion Williamson in the paint, Holmgren was able to assert his dominance. His length challenges so many field goal attempts at the rim, and Holmgren also has the skill set offensively to cause havoc on a defense. It is impossible to ignore his upside at his price point and in this matchup tonight.
Value
Trying to muscle his way into a big game against Holmgren is Pelicans’ big man Jonas Valanciunas. He was a menace on the glass, pulling down 20 rebounds in Game 1, and he added 13 points for his double-double. Priced at $5,700, if Valanciunas is grabbing that many rebounds and posting a double-double, he is easily one of the best values on the slate. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus behind Holmgren at this position, but he is also projected for around 50% ownership.
Where the Thunder and especially Holmgren struggle the most is on the glass. During the regular season, the Thunder ranked 28th in rebounding percentage at 48.4%. They have been elite defending paint points due to Holmgren’s shot-blocking abilities, but Valanciunas has found success due to his size advantage. This will be a great series for Valanciunas.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo has the highest ceiling at the center position but is easily the most expensive option. His salary did come down $300 from Game 1 against the Celtics despite scoring 24 points and grabbing six rebounds. Adebayo is going to play as many minutes as he can handle tonight, especially if the Heat somehow keep this game close. He is projected for around 20% ownership and has a position-high nine Pro Trends. His upside is significantly increased without Butler.
