Wednesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Coming off another triple-double, Luka Doncic is the stud to pay up for on this six-game slate. In last night’s 26-point win, Doncic recorded 39 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. He has by far the highest projected ceiling in our Player model tonight. Doncic is the main reason why the Mavericks have won 15 of their last 17 games and have climbed to the fifth seed in the Western Conference. There is plenty of value on this slate to get exposure to Doncic, who is the best play on the slate.
The Mavericks are four-point road favorites against the Heat, in what on paper is a difficult matchup for Doncic. The Heat rank fourth in defensive rating while allowing only 108.5 points per game. However, in their only meeting this season, Doncic finished with a 35-point, 11-rebound, 11-assist triple-double. Expect another ceiling performance from Doncic on this slate.
Value
The Grizzlies are the team to target from a value perspective. They continue to have most of their roster out for tonight’s game. Point guard Jordan Goodwin has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and is projected for a slate-high 33% ownership. Teammate Scotty Pippen is right behind Goodwin with the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Both guards are in an incredible spot and projected to play heavy minutes, but the slight lean goes to Goodwin, who is a little cheaper.
The Grizzlies are massive 17-point underdogs playing on the road against the Cavaliers. They are only implied to score 97.5 points, but given their price tags and playing time, it is impossible to ignore their value. Goodwin has a positive Plus/Minus in six consecutive games and is averaging a double-double with 12 points and 10.8 rebounds per game during that time.
Fast Break
Dejounte Murray has been a fantastic point guard with Trae Young still sidelined due to injury. He has recorded a double-double in nine of his last 13 games. With Young off the floor this season, Murray has a +4.01 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +2.54% usage rate. Murray is projected for the second-highest ownership on the slate due to his cupcake matchup against the Hornets. The Hawks are double-digit favorites, which bodes well for Murray, who has a slate-high 11 Pro Trends tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Priced in the mid-range at $7,700, Cam Thomas is the stud shooting guard to pay up for tonight. He has the second-highest projected ceiling at this position and the third-highest projected Plus/Minus. Thomas is the perfect play that has a mixture of ceiling and value. Thomas has scored at least 19 points in 15-straight games and is averaging 26.5 points per game during that stretch. The microwave scorer is leading the Nets in scoring and is one of the only bright spots on the team this season.
Thomas will look to stay hot in a juicy matchup against the Raptors who have lost 16 of their last 18 games. They have allowed an absurd 123.2 points per game over that time, and their defensive rating has dropped to 25th this season. Given how well Thomas has played recently, it should not be surprising that he has the second-highest ownership at this position.
Value
With Giannis Antetokounmpo likely out with a calf injury that he suffered last night, the Bucks are going to have a few value pieces to choose from when they host the Magic tonight. The Bucks are one-point home underdogs in what will be a huge battle for playoff seeding in the Eastern Conference. One of the values to target tonight is shooting guard and small forward eligible Pat Connaughton, who is only $4,000. He is projected for the highest ownership at this position tonight.
The Magic have been a strong defense all season long, but Connaughton has shown the ability to catch fire from long distance. He doesn’t need to do much to exceed his value in this matchup. Nearly 70% of Connaughton’s field goal attempts have come from behind the arc this season. If he can hit a couple 3-pointers and grab a few rebounds, he will exceed value.
Fast Break
Bogdan Bogdanovic has had four poor games in a row but is always a threat for a ceiling performance without Trae Young in the lineup. In 27 games without Young this season, Bogdanovic is playing over six more minutes per game than when he is playing alongside Young. Bogdanovic should be able to display his upside in this matchup against the Hornets, who rank 29th in defensive rating. He is a much cheaper option to get exposure to the Hawks than Murray, but he still has a high ceiling.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The small forward position is arguably the weakest on the slate given the lack of stud options to choose from. Hornets’ forward Miles Bridges leads this position with the highest projected ceiling and is projected for around 20% ownership. Bridges is averaging a career-high 21.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game this season and also leads the team in assists and steals. The playing time for him recently has been absurd with several games over 40 minutes, which boosts his ceiling.
The Hornets are an atrocious defensive team, but the Hawks are not much better. They rank 27th in defensive rating this season and fifth in pace, making this a great matchup for Bridges. They are also an average rebounding team, which bodes well for Bridges, who may flirt with another double-double. He has 10 Pro Trends and is doing everything for the Hornets.
Value
If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. We are going back to the Julian Champagnie well who has now posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven-straight games. During that stretch, Champagnie is averaging 14 points and 28.2 DraftKings points per game. This is a back-to-back for the Spurs after winning by 15 points. Keldon Johnson, Cedi Osman, and Devin Vassell remain out, which solidifies the playing time for Champagnie. He is another strong value play at only $4,500 with a 97% Bargain Rating.
Champagnie has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus behind Connaughton at this position. The Spurs are 15.5-point road underdogs against the Thunder, but this is another situation where Champagnie is going to play enough minutes where the spread is irrelevant. Expect him to continue his positive Plus/Minus streak, especially at his cheap $4,500 salary tonight.
Fast Break
Mikal Bridges has been boom or bust this season but remains one of the best options at the small forward position at his mid-range price tag. With shooting guard and small forward eligibility, Bridges is easy to fit into all lineup builds tonight. He is more than capable of ceiling performances, especially given this elite matchup against the Raptors. Averaging at least 20 points per game for the second-straight season with the Nets, Bridges is a strong option in all formats at his $6,700 salary.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The power forward position isn’t much better than the small forward position, especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo likely not able to suit up. However, in the Bucks and Magic game, Paolo Banchero is easily the best players to target. The second-year pro is averaging a career-high in points and assists while still proving to be a dominant rebounder as well. Banchero has 10 Pro Trends and an 80% Bargain Rating tonight. He should have no trouble against the Giannis-less Bucks tonight.
The Bucks’ defensive rating drops from 115.8 to 123.8 without Giannis in the lineup this season. Banchero has fared well in this matchup already this season, averaging a near double-double with 24.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game in his two meetings with the Bucks. He has scored 32 points in two of his last four games and is playing at an elite level right now.
Value
Grant Williams finally had a poor game, and unfortunately for him, it came against his former team who traded him at the deadline this season. Before that game, Williams had recorded a positive Plus/Minus in eight consecutive games. The power forward and center eligible Williams is averaging a career-high 13.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game since joining the Hornets. Williams is the same price that he was last night and is now playing in a much better matchup.
Williams has been able to stuff the stat sheet in a variety of ways for the Hornets. He will start his 10th game of the season for them tonight. In his previous nine starts, Williams is averaging 14.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game. His usage rate will likely stay in the low 20% range, but that is more than enough to pay off his cheap $5,400 salary in this spot.
Fast Break
Jalen Williams was a little disappointing in his first game back for the Thunder. He had previously missed the last four games and came back scoring only 11 points and totaling 26 DraftKings points. Williams was able to play 36 minutes in that game, so playing time is not a concern with his ankle injury. Expect a bounce-back performance against the Spurs, who rank 22nd in defensive rating and 23 in rebounding percentage this season. Williams is only $7,300 with an 86% Bargain Rating.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The biggest news on the slate is the status of Spurs’ center Victor Wembanyama. Since this is a back-to-back for the Spurs, there is speculation that they will sit Wembanyama, but no news has come out regarding that yet. If he is able to play, he will be the closest thing that comes to Luka Doncic from a ceiling perspective. Wembanyama had a relatively disappointing game last night with 18 points, seven rebounds, seven blocks, and six assists. However, his ceiling is still unbelievably high.
Not only is Wembanyama’s ceiling high in general, but this is an elite matchup against the Thunder and center Chet Holmgren. It is noticeable that these two already have beef, which is great for the league. In his three meetings with the Thunder, Wembanyama is averaging a 20-point and 13-rebound double-double. If he is able to play, he is a fantastic play.
Value
Trey Jemison almost had his second double-double in his last three games. The Grizzlies center has been playing very well recently and remains affordable at $4,300. Jemison has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate, sandwiched between his two point guard teammates. Projected to play a ridiculous 40 minutes tonight, Jemison is drawing a little over 25% ownership. This is a difficult matchup for him against the Cavaliers frontcourt, but Jemison is simply too cheap tonight.
If Jemison can stay out of foul trouble against Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, he will easily be able to exceed value given his price point. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games and has been great scoring the ball in the paint and rebounding. Both of those will be put to the test against Mobley and Allen, but this is a great spot to get exposure.
Fast Break
Sandro Mamukelashvili is another Spurs center worth targeting tonight, and he would look even better if Wembanyama is unable to suit up. Mamukelashvili is coming off an 11-point, 16-rebound double-double where he finished with a season-high 40 DraftKings points. Now he will draw a matchup against a Thunder frontcourt that ranks 28th in rebounding percentage at 48.1%. Priced at only $4,500 with power forward and center eligibility, Mamukelashvili is an incredible value in all formats.
