Between 11 games on Monday and 12 more on tap for Wednesday, the NBA takes a bit of a breather on Tuesday. Don’t worry, though. There are still four fun matchups for the main DFS fantasy basketball slate on DraftKings, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET. Of the eight teams taking the floor, the Kings and Mavericks are playing for the second day in a row, while the Warriors, Lakers, and Thunder are on the front half of their back-to-back games with another contest on Wednesday.
Even with only eight teams in the player pool, there are still several key injuries to monitor. Availability updates throughout the day will likely have a large impact on the slate, so be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest adjustments leading up to tip-off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The late game on Tuesday’s slate should be wildly entertaining as the Kings and Mavs meet in Sacramento. Luka Doncic and De’Aaron Fox are two elite options at point guard and have the top two median and floor projections at the position. While Luka is hard to match for pure upside, Fox actually represents much better per-dollar production, according to our projections. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate, and he’s a great place to start your Tuesday roster construction.
Fox has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games and led the Kings to a win over the 76ers on Monday with 23 points, eight rebounds, and five assists in 37 minutes. Over the last month, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of 14 games with an Average Plus/Minus of +3.27 DraftKings points. He has produced 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in 35.8 minutes per game.
Last year, Fox won the NBA Clutch Player of the Year, and he always seems to rise to the occasion on the biggest stage. He has posted two strong games against the Mavs already this season, with 30+ points and strong non-scoring numbers in each contest. He and Luka will probably both have big games in their showdown, but Fox’s salary is almost $4,000 lower, which makes him much easier to build a stacked lineup around.
Value
The Thunder have been getting solid production from Josh Giddey, who offers solid mid-range value in Tuesday’s matchup with the injury-depleted Pelicans. Giddey has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the point guard options under $6,000 and the second-highest in that price range at shooting guard.
Giddey has started each of his 69 games this season, averaging a 23.1% usage rate in 28.4 minutes per game. On the season, he has averaged a solid 1.15 DraftKings points per minute, but he has picked that up over the last month. In his 11 games in March, Giddey has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games with a solid Average Plus/Minus of +5.61 DraftKings points.
On Sunday against the Bucks, Giddey had 19 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists and knocked down four three-pointers. He has posted several solid stat lines lately and brings a high ceiling at either guard spot for an option under $6,000.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the entire slate. He bounced back from a few down games with a massive triple-double of 29 points, 13 assists, and 12 rebounds on Monday against the Jazz. Tuesday’s game will be the second game of the back-to-back, and he logged over 41 minutes on Monday, but he still brings such a high ceiling that he’s worth considering if you have the salary available for his hefty price tag.
Without Brandon Ingram (knee), the Pelicans are more reliant on point guard CJ McCollum for points and playmaking. On the season, McCollum has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with Ingram off the floor, and he gets a usage bump of over three percentage points in that scenario. McCollum exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the two games since Ingram’s most recent injury, scoring 30 against the Heat and 23 against the Pistons while handing out seven assists in each game. He’s an excellent option at just over $7,000 on Tuesday against OKC.
If you opt to go cheap at point guard, Patty Mills continues to get good minutes for Miami while they’re without Tyler Herro (foot) and Duncan Robinson (back). Jaime Jaquez Jr. (knee) and Caleb Martin (ankle) are also questionable, and if either is out, there would be even more time and usage for Mills. The veteran has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and the fourth-highest of all shooting guards.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With LeBron James (ankle) doubtful instead of his typical questionable, it looks like the superstar could sit the front half of the Lakers’ back-to-back against Milwaukee and Memphis. If he’s out, Austin Reaves would step into a larger role against the Bucks and be a great option. Reaves has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and the highest ceiling projection of all players at the position as well.
Reaves had 25 points, eight assists, and five rebounds in the Lakers’ big win over the Pacers on Sunday and is averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in 34.4 minutes per game over his 10 games in March. In those 10 games, though, his usage jumps over five percentage points with LeBron off the floor, and his production increases to 1.07 DraftKings points per minute. On the season, he has posted 1.27 DraftKings points with LeBron off the floor and has averaged 34.3 DraftKings points in the nine games that he has played this year without LeBron.
Value
The Kings have started Keon Ellis in six of their last eight games, and Ellis has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of those contests. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of shooting guards with salaries under $5,000 on Tuesday’s slate.
In his last eight games, Ellis has averaged 7.9 points, 3.1 boards, and 2.0 steals in 28.2 minutes per contest. He has produced just 0.76 DraftKings points per minute, but that has resulted in 21.5 DraftKings points per game, given his current workload. Even though he isn’t an extremely high usage option, he does have the potential to get hot while almost always finding a way to contribute good value with his non-scoring production and defensive stats.
Fast Break
Terry Rozier has been getting plenty of volume for the Heat due to all their injuries in the backcourt. His usage rate is the second-highest on the team since the All-Star Break at 25.0%. During those 14 games, he averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in 33.2 minutes. As Miami hosts the Warriors on Tuesday, he should again get enough minutes and field goal attempts to be a solid mid-range target.
Since Ingram’s injury, Trey Murphy has started back-to-back games for the Pelicans. While he has been almost exactly on his salary-based expectations in each of those games, his expanded role does give him a much higher ceiling while Ingram is out. He has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute with Ingram off the floor this season and has a projection of 32.0 minutes with a 20.1% usage rate on Tuesday.
The Thunder are very healthy coming down the stretch and should have all their rotation players available against New Orleans. There still could be room for value, though, with good bargain projections for Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe. Wallace has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards with salaries under $5,000. He exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games by producing 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in 23.0 minutes per game.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Heat will probably need the playoff version of Jimmy Butler if they want to hang with the Warriors on Tuesday night. Butler has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all small forwards on the slate, along with the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Butler missed a back-to-back last week for the Heat but has played well in his three games since returning. When available, he has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in his 13 games since the All-Star Break while leading the team with a 25.9% usage rate.
He only had to play 24 minutes in Sunday’s rout of the Cavs, so he should be well-rested and ready to carry the load on Tuesday. He has a projection of 34.0 minutes and should be able to deliver a big number if he has to carry the load with multiple other Miami starters dealing with injuries. With Robinson and Herro off the floor this season, Butler has produced 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.3% usage rate.
Value
With LeBron expected to sit, Taurean Prince has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on Tuesday’s slate. While he has regularly been listed as questionable, James has actually played almost all the Lakers’ games since the All-Star Break. He did miss one other game in March, which was also against the Bucks. In that contest, Prince came off the bench with eight points in 17 minutes.
Prince has been slightly more involved lately, playing 19+ minutes in four of his last five games, including a 30-minute workload last Saturday against the Warriors. In his nine games this month, Prince has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points in 19.0 minutes per game. On Tuesday, he has 28.7 projected minutes, and with that time he should be a great value at just $4,000.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton posted a triple-double on Sunday in just his third game back from a month-long layoff. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his three games since returning and averaged an impressive 1.44 DraftKings points per minute in those three games.
While Trey Murphy hasn’t quite hit his potential in his two starts since Ingram’s injury, Naji Marshall has been excellent off the bench, with 14 points against the Pistons and 13 points against the Heat. He has put up 1.19 DraftKings points per minute in that small sample size and 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in his last 10 games. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of those 10 contests as well. Murphy has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on Tuesday’s slate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Of all the players on Tuesday’s slate, only Luka has a higher ceiling and median projection than Giannis Antetkounmpo. Giannis leads the way at power forward in both those projections and also has the highest floor projection, beating out even Anthony Davis (discussed below) in each of those categories. Since Davis will be extremely popular, for good reason, Giannis could be a nice pay-up pivot since he always brings a high ceiling.
The Bucks do have the highest implied team total on the board and their matchup with the Lakers has the second-highest Over/Under. Giannis had 34 points, 14 rebounds, and 12 assists when the Bucks faced the Lakers earlier this month, and he always brings the ability to totally smash the slate with a monster stat line like that. Especially in this matchup at home trying to avenge that one-point loss, he should be in a smash spot.
Antetokounmpo has eight double-doubles and that triple-double in his 11 games since the All-Star Break. During that span, he has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute in 34.6 minutes per game with a team-high 32.0% usage rate. Getting Middleton back shouldn’t limit him and could even open up more opportunities since the two have such good synergy and experience together.
Value
In their matchup with the Mavs, Keegan Murray will be a key contributor for the Kings. The second-year forward has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards with salaries under $6,000 behind only Taurean Prince (discussed above).
Murray has stepped up in the Kings’ last two games, producing more than 10 DraftKings points above salary-based expectations in wins over the Magic and 76ers. He had 20+ points in each of those games and has scored double-digit points in eight straight games. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven contests, averaging 0.94 DraftKings points in 35.6 minutes per game.
Murray always seems to get plenty of opportunities, and hopefully, his last two games indicate he’s shaking off his shooting slump and ready to post big numbers down the stretch for Sacramento.
Fast Break
Without Ingram available, Zion Williamson will have to carry the Pelicans’ offense along with the other options discussed above. Zion had a miserable game against Miami on Friday with just four points, but he bounced back with an impressive 36 points against the Pistons on Sunday. He brings that high ceiling to Tuesday’s matchup with the Thunder, but OKC’s defense will be focused on slowing him down and will likely be tougher than Detroit’s. He’s priced up to $9,000, where he still brings a high ceiling but has to go off to return value.
On the other side of that matchup, Jalen Williams is more affordable and brings almost the same Projected Plus/Minus as Zion. Williams has scored at least 18 points in five straight games and has exploded for over 25 points three times in his last 11 games. He averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute over his last five games and 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in his 15 games since the All-Star Break.
Aside from Prince and Marshall (discussed above), Harrison Barnes has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of power forwards with salaries under $5,000. Barnes is very boom-or-bust but does bring good upside for a play so affordable.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Without LeBron, Anthony Davis isn’t going to be a “sneaky” play against the Bucks, but just because he’s obvious doesn’t mean that he’s a bad pick. He has been very productive without LeBron this season and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards and centers on Tuesday’s slate. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of all centers behind only Giannis and comes at a $1,000 salary savings. He’s even cheaper than Domantas Sabonis, and he edges out the Kings center in ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus.
Davis has been very productive all season, averaging 1.50 DraftKings points per minute. With James off the floor, his usage jumps to 30.2% (an increase of over three percentage points), and his production rate increases to 1.55 DraftKings points per minute. In the eight games Davis started without James, he averaged 56.4 DraftKings points per game with a 30.4% usage rate.
The most recent game that James missed left Davis starting without him in this same matchup against the Bucks. In that game, Davis had 22 points, 13 rebounds, and three blocks in 41 minutes. He exceeded salary-based expectations in that contest and comes into this rematch after exceeding salary-based expectations in three straight contests with double-doubles of at least 15 rebounds against the Hawks, Sixers, and Pacers.
Value
The highest Projected Plus/Minus at center come from high-priced options for the most part on Tuesday, but one notable exception is Trayce Jackson-Davis of the Warriors, who has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers and the highest of centers with salaries under $6,000. Jackson-Davis is questionable due to right knee soreness, but he hasn’t missed a game since mid-February and should be a good value as long as he suits up.
Jackson-Davis has come off the bench in each of the last five games for the Warriors and has been in the second unit for eight of his last 10 games. That role has not stopped him from being very productive, though. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of those 10 contests with an Average Plus/Minus of 6.45 DraftKings points and a production rate of 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in 23.8 minutes per game.
Fast Break
Even though he’s playing for the second night in a row, Damontas Sabonis is a solid pivot from the AD chalk. Sabonis posted his 25th triple-double of the season on Monday and also set the record for the longest double-double streak since the NBA/ABA merger with his 54th straight double-double. He has been remarkably steady all season and has averaged 1.51 DraftKings points per minute since the All-Star Break and 1.49 DraftKings points per minute on the season.
Daniel Gafford has been a great midrange play since joining the Mavericks and has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games. In that run, he has posted 1.46 DraftKings points per minute while logging 24.4 minutes per game. He had a nice double-double on Monday night and should be set to tangle with Sabonis on Tuesday.
If you have to go cheaper than Gafford, Larry Nance Jr. has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of centers under $5,000. Nance has played over 23 minutes in four of his last five games and is getting much more involved in the Pelicans’ rotation than he was early in the season.
