After a massive Wednesday schedule, the NBA has a small slate of two games on tap for Thursday night, providing four teams for the player pool on the DraftKings main DFS fantasy basketball slate. The action gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET when the Celtics face the Hawks for the second time this week, and in the second game of the doubleheader, the Bucks visit the Pelicans. The Hawks are the only team playing for the second night in a row, and all four of these teams have Friday off.
Even with such a small slate, keep a close eye out for injury and availability updates leading up to tip-off. Always be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and adjustments.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Hawks continue to rely heavily on Dejounte Murray, who has been excellent since Trae Young (finger) went down with an injury. Murray has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all point guards on this limited slate, and he is a relatively safe option since he is carrying such a large workload.
On Wednesday, Murray was listed as questionable due to a lower back issue, but he played through the issue and scored 30 points in 36 minutes in a win over the Trail Blazers. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and seven of his last 10. Over that stretch, he averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.6% usage rate and 39.9% assist rate. He had posted five straight double-doubles before finishing with just seven assists on Wednesday.
As long as the back issue doesn’t limit him, Murray should remain the focal point of the Hawks’ offense, making him a good pay-up play at point guard on Thursday’s slate.
Value
While he isn’t extremely cheap, CJ McCollum is projected to bring the best value at point guard on Thursday. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position by a wide margin.
McCollum has picked up more work lately after the injury to Brandon Ingram (knee) and has a 26.4% projected usage in 35.6 projected minutes against the Bucks. McCollum’s usage rate on the season is 26.3% and jumps to 28.1% with Ingram off the floor. In that scenario, he has produced 1.23 DraftKings points per minute.
In each of his three games since Ingram’s injury, McCollum has exceeded salary-based expectations by scoring at least 23 points and posting a usage of at least 25%. With plenty of opportunity and usage expected to come his way in this home matchup against Milwaukee, he should have a good chance to shine against his former backcourt-mate, Damian Lillard.
Fast Break
Lillard has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all point guards, behind only Murray. He had a down game against the Thunder on Sunday, but he has been hot in his other recent contests, scoring 27+ points and exceeding salary-based expectations in four of his last five.
The second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position comes from the best bargain play on the board, Vit Krejci. Krejci has played 30+ minutes in four straight games and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those contests. He has been playing big minutes, starting 10 straight games and averaging 28.8 minutes per game. He has only produced 0.59 DraftKings points per minute over that stretch but is getting enough minutes to still be worth a strong play at his $4,000 salary.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The highest implied team total on the slate belongs to the Celtics. They’re expected to get Derrick White back in action after he missed Monday’s matchup, and Jrue Holiday (shoulder) is questionable as well. Before missing Monday’s loss in Atlanta, White had played 15 of the Celtics’ 16 games since the All-Star Break and helped carry the load while Holiday and others rested and recovered from their various injuries. Boston has opened a big lead in the Eastern Conference and taken the chance to rest their stars at times, but everyone’s expected to play Thursday in Atlanta with Holiday and Al Horford (toe, questionable) the only players on the injury report.
In his return, White brings the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at shooting guard.
While often helping to cover for resting teammates, White averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in 33.6 minutes per game over his last 15 contests. He exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games, posting a double-double and a triple-double in two matchups with the Pistons. He had two strong games in his first two matchups with the Hawks and brings a high ceiling, especially if Holiday is limited in his return or needs more time to recover.
Value
Since Ingram’s injury, Trey Murphy III has started each of the last three games for the Pelicans. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and all small forwards on Thursday’s slate and brings a very high upside in his expanded role.
Murphy struggled in his first two games in the lineup, making just 5-of-23 (21.7%) field goal attempts. He found his footing on Tuesday, though, going 6-for-10 on his way to 16 points in 39 minutes. With Ingram off the floor this season, Murphy has produced 0.97 DraftKings points per minute. Like McCollum, he should get extra shot opportunities for as long as Ingram is sidelined, and as a result, he brings a high upside.
Fast Break
At shooting guard, Jaylen Brown has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the slate. He may be a little over-priced based on his projection, but he definitely brings a high enough ceiling to be considered as a pay-up play. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games while averaging 1.34 DraftKings points per minute and posting a team-high 33.9% usage rate.
Krejci again stands out as the top bargain play at this position, although Pat Connaughton and Garrison Mathews are right behind him in terms of Projected Plus/Minus.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Celtics could be a little over-priced as a group since all their key contributors could be back in action and limit each other’s usage to some degree. Even with that being the case, Jayson Tatum is too good a pay-up play to overlook on such a small slate. Tatum has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at small forward and the second-highest median projection and third-highest ceiling projection on the whole slate.
Tatum had a huge game on Monday despite the Celtics’ loss, pouring in 37 points to go with eight rebounds and five assists in 40 minutes. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last eight games, producing 1.42 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.9% usage rate.
In each of his last eight games and 12 of his last 13, Tatum has scored 25+ points regardless of who else was in or out of the lineup. He’s a reliable producer with a good ceiling in Thursday’s rematch in Atlanta.
Value
The Hawks have been giving De’Andre Hunter more run over his last few games, and he had one of his best games of the season in Monday’s win over the Celtics. He finished Monday’s comeback win with 24 points and seven rebounds in 34 minutes. He only had 13 points on Wednesday against Portland but still logged 31 minutes.
Hunter has played 31.5 minutes per game over the last four games since moving to the starting lineup, averaging over 13 field goal attempts with a 23.7% usage rate. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on Thursday’s slate and brings good potential for a play under $6,000.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton has looked good since returning from an ankle injury that sidelined him for over a month. In his four games since returning, he has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.3% usage rate in 31.0 minutes per game. He had a triple-double on Sunday against OKC and has at least six rebounds and six assists to go with double-double points in each of his last three contests.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at both shooting guard and small forward just behind Trey Murphy III. Bogdanovic had 22 points in 40 minutes against Boston on Monday, exceeding salary-based expectations. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute in 32.8 minutes per game. He has been a little less volatile than Murphy, so his median and floor projections are slightly higher than Murphy’s, but Murphy’s ceiling projection is higher in a better matchup.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Zion Williamson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal on the entire slate. His salary is significantly lower than Tatum’s and Murray’s, but his ceiling is almost just as high. He has the second-highest ceiling projection on the entire slate, behind only Giannis Antetkounmpo, who is also much more expensive.
On Tuesday, Zion had an impressive 29-point, 10-assist double-double against the Thunder, exceeding salary-based expectations by about 10 DraftKings points for the second straight game. He struggled badly in his first game after Ingram’s injury against the Heat but has looked ready to take over the team in his two games since then.
With Ingram off the floor this season, Williamson has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute with a team-high 32.9% usage rate. His usage rate has been over 30% in each of the last two games, and he has a 31.4% usage projection for Thursday. With so much work, he should be set up for another big game as long as the Pelicans can keep their contest against the visiting Bucks competitive on Thursday night.
Value
While Zion, McCollum, and Murphy bring great value projections at their positions, the Pelicans have even more value to offer from Naji Marshall at power forward. Marshall’s salary is only $4,300, and he brings the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward and the fourth-highest at small forward.
After Ingram’s injury, Marshall had two big games, exceeding salary-based expectations against both the Heat and Pistons, averaging 13.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in those two games. He did have a down game on Tuesday with just seven points and four boards against the Thunder but still played a healthy 24 minutes off the bench.
With Ingram off the floor, Marshall has produced 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in March, and his affordable salary can be key to fitting in the stars you want to build around on Thursday.
Fast Break
The Celtics didn’t list Kristaps Porzingis on their injury report, and he could get even more work if Horford gets the day off. Porzingis has scored at least 17 points in each of his eight games this month while producing a solid 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 29.6 minutes per game.
Bobby Portis has a high ceiling in his role off the bench for the Bucks, although he is a volatile play from game to game. He has scored at least 15 points in four of his last five games, including three double-doubles in which he exceeded salary-based expectations by more than 10 DraftKings points. He had one of those double-doubles on Tuesday against the Lakers, producing 18 points and 13 rebounds in 31 minutes.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
While other stars have better value projections, no one on Thursday’s slate brings as high a ceiling as Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the entire slate.
Giannis is coming off a massive triple-double in Tuesday’s double-overtime loss to the Lakers. With all the added minutes, he was able to rack up 29 points, 21 rebounds and 11 assists. The workload of 47 minutes could take its toll down the road, but he is probable with a hamstring injury for this contest, so he is expected to play.
In six of his last seven games, Giannis has scored at least 29 points. During that span, he produced an elite 1.68 DraftKings points per minute, which is exactly his season average as well. He had 30 points and 12 boards in only 29 minutes in the first meeting of these two teams this season, so he should be a good play against the Pelicans on Thursday if you can make his salary work under your cap.
Value
The top two value plays at center both come from Atlanta. Bruno Fernando has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers and has come up big in the Hawks’ rotation in their three games on this homestand. He opened with a monster 25 points and six boards in a big game last Saturday and followed that up with strong games against the Celtics on Monday and Blazers on Wednesday. In that small sample size, he produced 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in 16.0 minutes per game.
His production hasn’t come at the expense of Clint Capela, though, who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers. Capela has posted double-doubles in nine of his last 10 games and exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of those contests, producing 1.38 DraftKings points per minute.
If you have enough salary, Capela is a safer play with a higher ceiling and a solid mid-range target. if you have to go cheaper, though, Fernando brings enough of a high ceiling to be worth a look at his salary under $4,500.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas is very affordable as well, with his salary of only $4,600. The veteran big man has been struggling, though, and only played 10 minutes on Tuesday against the Thunder. That limited workload was mostly due to matchup, though, and he should be able to bounce back as a value option Thursday against the Bucks.
On the other side of that matchup, Brook Lopez has scored at least eight points in six straight games, averaging 0.89 DraftKings points per game in 27.1 minutes per game. He’s fairly consistent for Milwaukee, although the two Hawks options discussed above have been more productive recently.
