The NBA continues a busy work week with six games on tap for Thursday night. The Bucks, Suns, Kings and Jazz are each playing for the second night in a row, while the Pelicans are the only team on the front half of a back-to-back that finishes Friday.
As usual at this point in the season, injury and availability updates throughout the day have a chance of radically impacting Thursday’s slate. Value and opportunity shift quickly as players are ruled in or out, so always refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and adjustments.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
He’s the most expensive player on the slate, but Luka Doncic is still worth considering since he brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players.
Luka’s Mavs have the highest implied team total on the slate and get a very favorable matchup against the Jazz, who are playing for the second night in a row. The Mavs have a rest advantage since they hadn’t played since Tuesday when Doncic played through a questionable tag but struggled with this shot. He still posted a triple-double with 18 points, 16 assists and 10 rebounds. With no injury tag in this matchup, he will hope to bounce back against Utah.
In the month since the All-Star Break, Luka has produced a slate-high 1.83 DraftKings points per minute while playing 37.5 minutes per game over his 13 contests. On Thursday, he also matches 13 Pro Trends, which is the most of any player on the slate.
Value
The Kings have been giving Keon Ellis expanded minutes in their last four games, and the second-year guard has made a solid option as a value play over that stretch. Ellis has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on Thursday’s slate, behind just Luka and De’Aaron Fox.
Ellis has played over 25 minutes in five straight games, including three starts. He has produced a solid 0.79 DKFP in 28.6 minutes per game and has been able to exceed salary-based expectations in four of those five games.
On Thursday, the Kings face the Wizards in a favorable matchup and have the second-highest implied team total on the board. In that environment, Ellis will be a good value play at point guard if Kevin Huerter (shoulder) is forced to miss another game.
Fast Break
The Rockets will look to keep rolling as they face the Bulls in Chicago, looking for their seventh straight victory. Fred VanVleet continues to be a solid play, even though he isn’t quite as affordable as he was in the Rockets’ last few games. FVV has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 37.3 minutes per game.
Even with Kyle Kuzma expected to return, Jordan Poole should still be very busy for the Wizards as they face the Kings. Tyus Jones (back) remains sidelined, opening the door for Poole to post heavy usage and giving the 24-year-old a high ceiling even though he’s proven to be a volatile option.
Former Jazz guard Dante Exum faces his former team when the Mavs host Utah. He is coming off a 16-point performance against the Spurs and has ramped back up to over 20 minutes per game. He brings a good ceiling as a value play with his salary under $4,000.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Jalen Green went off for a season-high 42 points on Tuesday in a comfortable win over the Wizards. Green has the second-highest ceiling, median and floor projection at shooting guard on this slate and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Green has scored 25+ points in three straight games and added 10+ rebounds in each of his last two contests. He always gets plenty of usage but has taken it to another level since the injury to Alperen Sengun (ankle). With production in non-scoring categories as well, he’s a great option to build around while he continues to keep the Rockets alive in the chase for the Play-In Tournament.
Value
As a mid-range option at either guard spot, Miles McBride brings fascinating upside while OG Anunoby (elbow) is sidelined again. McBride has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of shooting guards with a salary under $5,000 and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of point guards in that same price bracket.
On Tuesday, McBride started and played a whopping 47 minutes against the Warriors, pouring in 29 points and showing off his high ceiling.
Coach Tom Thibodeau has shown a willingness to give him massive minutes when he’s in the lineup. He has played over 40 minutes three times this month and posted good stat lines in each of those contests. With Anunoby still out Thursday against the Nuggets, McBride will likely be very busy once again. He has a 14.9% usage projection in 36.7 projected minutes on Thursday.
Fast Break
While Luka has been dealing with injury, Kyrie Irving has stepped up for the Mavs. He brings the highest median, ceiling and floor projection of all shooting guards on Thursday, but to me, this feels like a Luka bounce-back performance, which could make Kyrie a little overpriced.
Malik Monk has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and small forwards on Thursday’s slate. He has consistently delivered good numbers off the bench for the Kings all season and has scored at least 17 points in seven of his last eight games while producing 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in 28.9 minutes per game.
In addition to McBride and Exum, who are strong values at shooting guard, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is worth a look at just $4,000. The Nuggets’ starter usually logs heavy minutes with low usage but can put together enough counting stats to be a good, affordable play at the position. He has averaged 0.71 DraftKings points per minute in 31.8 minutes per game over his last 10 contests.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Josh Hart will be asked to continue to step up for the Knicks with Anunoby and Julius Randle (shoulder) still out for Thursday night’s matchup in Denver. Hart has the second-highest median and ceiling projections of all small forwards and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Hart is coming off a triple-double in Tuesday’s win over the Warriors and has shown his versatile, multi-category upside over the last month. He has pulled in double-digit rebounds in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 1.03 DraftKings points per contest while playing a team-high 42.8 minutes per contest. Hart exceeded salary-based expectations in six of those 10 games.
With Coach Thibs giving his starters so much work, the Knicks’ main options bring both a high ceiling and a high floor. Hart will likely continue to play a ton of minutes and produce in multiple categories on Thursday in Denver.
Value
Since the injury to Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson has started the last four games for the Rockets. He has shown a high ceiling and still brings unique versatility with eligibility at both point guard and small forward. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards and the fourth-highest of all point guards on Thursday’s slate.
Thompson has over a dozen points in five of his last six games and is coming off a strong game with 25 points and 10 boards against the Wizards on Tuesday. It was his second 20-point double-double since joining the starting lineup, and he should continue to bring versatile upside to the surging Rockets as they roll into the Windy City to take on the Bulls.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan has the highest median and ceiling projection of all small forwards. He continues to carry a massive workload for the Bulls. He may get some help with Coby White (hip) questionable to return after missing three games, but DeRozan will still be a solid play since so much of Chicago’s offense still goes through him, and White’s return would help provide better spacing.
If you are shopping for a forward under $5,000, Harrison Barnes is worth a look in the Kings’ good matchup against the Wizards. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards in that salary range. He has scored double-digit points in five straight games, producing 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in 29.8 minutes per contest.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Pelicans and Rockets are two of the hottest teams in the Western Conference and both have been bringing good fantasy options amid their recent success. Zion Williamson has been leading the way for New Orleans, and he has the highest median and floor projections at power forward as he and the Pels face the Magic in Orlando.
Williamson exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games before coming up almost exactly on his salary-based expectation on Tuesday in a win in Brooklyn. Over his last seven, Zion has produced an elite 1.47 DraftKings points per minute and played 33.1 minutes per contest. While he isn’t a cheap play, that production rate puts him in the same range as the elite players priced over $9,000 and actually means he could end up representing good value.
Zion has also been relatively consistent lately, with over 25 points in five straight matchups, highlighted by 34 points in a win over the Clippers last Friday.
Value
Keegan Murray has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on Thursday’s slate, partly due to the Kings’ great matchup against the Wizards.
Murray has produced double-digit points in 11 of his 13 games in the last month, averaging a solid 0.81 DraftKings points per minute while playing a heavy workload of 35.4 minutes per game. He gets a significant boost with Kevin Huerter off the floor over that span to 0.86 DraftKings points per minute.
Murray played a lighter load with the rest of the Kings’ starters in Wednesday’s win over Toronto, so hopefully, he’s ready to carry his normal workload on Thursday in the second game of the team’s back-to-back. The Wizards have been a great matchup for forwards, so Sacramento is in a matchup where you’ll want some exposure.
Fast Break
Going head-to-head with Zion, Paolo Banchero will be a pivot play worth a look, even though his recent numbers have been slightly down. He didn’t have to play much in Tuesday’s rout of the Hornets and had scored at least 19 points in eight of his previous nine games.
As an alternative to Murray in the mid-range, Aaron Gordon brings very similar projections but without the worries of playing for a second straight day. Gordon had a nice 14-point, 11-rebound double-double in Tuesday’s win over the Wolves and usually can be counted on to step up in gritty, hard-fought games like Thursday’s against the Knicks is expected to be.
Banchero’s teammate, Jonathan Isaac remains a solid value play in his important role off the bench for the Magic. Isaac is still priced under $4,000 and has averaged a very solid 1.18 DraftKings points per minute while playing just over 15 minutes per game over his last 10 contests. He sat out last Saturday and played limited minutes Tuesday, but he’s not on the injury report and should be back in his normal role Thursday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Even with Nikola Jokic on the slate, Domantas Sabonis remains the top center option, which indicates how outstanding Sabonis continues to be for the Kings. His salary is $1,000 lower than Jokic’s but Sabonis has a higher floor and median projection while almost exactly matching Jokic’s ceiling projection. Sabonis also has a much better Projected Plus/Minus, which is the highest of all players on Thursday’s entire slate.
Sabonis had another triple-double on Wednesday while running his streak of double-doubles to an amazing 51 games. Over the last month of that run, Sabonis is averaging 1.56 DraftKings points per minute while playing a massive 36.4 minutes per game. He doesn’t have the highest usage, but he produces in so many other areas that he’s an elite play every time he’s on the slate.
The Wizards don’t have much depth in their frontcourt, which should set him up in another smash spot Thursday night as the Kings try to solve their recent struggles in back-to-backs.
Value
While Sabonis is a good value, he’s far from cheap. If you need to go with a lower-cost option, Daniel Gafford has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers aside from Sabonis. He has been a nice Trade Deadline pickup for the Mavs and gets a good matchup against the Jazz.
Gafford has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games while averaging a very impressive 1.39 DraftKings points per minute. He has at least one block in each of those games and has posted strong points and rebounds while fitting in nicely as a rim-protector for his new squad.
Fast Break
The Nuggets are on the slate, so Nikola Jokic is a good option to consider as well, although he hasn’t been quite as consistent as Sabonis has been lately. He still has a ridiculously high ceiling and is coming off a massive 35-point, 16-rebound game against the Timberwolves on Tuesday. He’s a high-priced pay-up play, but one that always brings a high enough ceiling to be worth a look.
Another Mavericks deadline addition, P.J. Washington, also has center eligibility against the Jazz. Washington has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on the slate and has played over 30 minutes in each of his last four games. He isn’t getting huge volume, but his workload gives him good potential.
Jonathan Isaac (discussed above) of the Magic is one of the best bargains to consider at center, along with Jock Landale of the Rockets, Peyton Watson of the Nuggets, and Alex Len of the Kings.
