After back-to-back big nights, the NBA has a handful of games lined up for Thursday’s DFS fantasy basketball slate on DraftKings, which starts at 7:30 p.m ET. Of the 10 teams taking the floor, only the Hawks are playing for the second straight day, although there are seven teams on the front half of a back-to-back set. The Mavs, Warriors, Rockets, Clippers, Heat, Knicks, and Kings all play again on Friday as part of a huge 12-game slate.
Most teams have just five or six games left in their regular season. While that means playoff races are heating up, it also means teams are resting players to prepare for the postseason or taking a longer look at future pieces if they’ve been eliminated. As a result, it’s extremely important to keep a close eye on injury and availability updates throughout the day. As news breaks, refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates to see who is playing more or less, and who should get a spot on your roster.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Mavericks host the Hawks on Thursday and have the highest implied team total on the slate in the game with the highest Over/Under. Luka Doncic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all the players on the entire slate, and he even brings strong value projections despite his elevated $12,500 salary.
Doncic has been excellent all season, producing 1.76 DraftKings points per minute with a massive 36.7% usage rate. He has been right on that average over the last month as well and has scored 25+ points in six straight games after a 30-point triple-double on Tuesday against the Warriors.
The matchup against Atlanta should set him up for another big game, especially since the Hawks are on a back-to-back after winning at home against the Pistons on Wednesday. When Doncic faced the Hawks at the end of January, he scored his season-high 73 points with 10 rebounds and seven assists for an absurdly impressive 101.5 DraftKings points. While he’s always great, this is obviously a matchup where Luka brings an especially high ceiling.
Value
The Clippers host the Nuggets in a huge Western Conference matchup on Thursday, and Russell Westbrook is one of the top value guards on the board. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and the second-highest of all players on the slate.
Westbrook has played five games since returning from a broken hand, averaging 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games, scoring 11 points against the Hornets on Sunday and 20 points against the Kings on Tuesday.
Part of the reason Westbrook got more run on Tuesday was that the Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard (knee), as they will be again for this game. With Kawhi off the floor this season, Westbrook produces 1.16 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.3% usage rate. He brings a high ceiling coming off the bench as a spark plug and gets more run whenever the Clippers rest one of their stars.
Fast Break
The Rockets have dropped two straight after their winnings streak and will try to get back on track as they host the Warriors, who are three games ahead of them for the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. They’ll have to lean on Fred VanVleet to carry the load, and the veteran point guard has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on this slate, with his salary dipping under $8,000 for the first time in over two weeks. FVV had 22 points on Tuesday and has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in 35.7 minutes per game over the past month.
Miles McBride has the highest ceiling projection of all point guards under $6,000. He has averaged a remarkable 44.7 minutes per game in his eight games since joining the starting lineup and has exceeded salary-based expectations in all but one of those contests while averaging 19.8 points, 3.4 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game.
Mavericks backup Dante Exum has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the point guards with salaries under $4,500. Exum has played at least 18 minutes in four straight games off the bench for Dallas and had 13 points against Houston last Sunday. He’s not getting as much volume as earlier in the year when he stepped into the starting lineup, but he’s still doing enough to be a good bargain play at $3,400.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Knicks have had to rely on Donte DiVincenzo heavily over the past several games due to multiple injury issues. The wing has responded as he did earlier this season with a hot scoring streak. He has scored 15+ points in six straight games, including three games of 30+ points and a 41-point ceiling game against the Pistons. On Thursday’s slate, he brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all shooting guards with salaries under $7,000 and the highest median and ceiling projections in that price range at small forward. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate at each position as well.
DiVincenzo will be at home at the Garden, facing his former team, the Kings. Whether you buy into the revenge narrative or not, DiVincenzo is a solid midrange option with elite upside after producing 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over his last six games while playing 39.8 minutes per game. Like the rest of the Knicks’ starters, his heavy workload of minutes raises both his floor and his ceiling.
Value
After missing nine games with an ankle injury, Cam Whitmore has looked sharp in his two games since returning and played longer than expected in both contests. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on Thursday’s slate and comes at an ultra-affordable $4,100.
The Rockets’ rookie has been impressive this season, averaging 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in his 40 games. Since he’s viewed as a huge part of the team’s future after being taken with the No. 20 overall pick out of Villanova, Whitmore could get even more work down the stretch, regardless of the team’s playoff positioning.
Whitmore played 22 minutes in each of his two games since returning and has a good chance to return value if he stays around that level. He has scored double-digit points in six straight dating back to before the injury and has at least nine points in 20 of his last 21 games. The Rockets could also try to expand his role over the rest of the season to see what to expect from him next season. If they do, Whitmore’s ceiling will be extremely high.
Fast Break
Even playing alongside Luka, Kyrie Irving has the highest median and ceiling projection at shooting guard, while Jalen Green edges him out for the top floor projection at the position. Both are strong plays to consider if you have the salary cap space to spend up at this spot. Kyrie has scored at least 24 points in five straight and eight of his last nine, while Green has emerged as a top fantasy option during the Rockets’ recent rise.
The Heat have won three straight games, and in each of those three contests, Terry Rozier has exceeded salary-based expectations with over 20 points. He averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 33.3 minutes per game over his last 15 contests while posting a team-leading 25.8% usage rate over that span.
Norman Powell started in place of Kawhi on Tuesday and had 17 points in 29 minutes while exceeding salary-based expectations against the Kings. He and Terance Mann both have strong Projected Plus/Minus as they cover for Kawhi again on Thursday. Powell’s Projected Plus/Minus is the fourth-highest at both shooting guard and small forward, and Mann’s is the second-highest of all shooting guards with a salary under $4,000.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
One of the most important injury reports to monitor on Thursday is the 76ers’ since they listed Joel Embiid (injury recovery), Tyrese Maxey (hip) and Tobias Harris (knee) as questionable for their trip to South Beach to face the Heat. While he may end up with normal usage if all three play through their questionable tags, Kelly Oubre Jr. has been outstanding in an expanded role lately, and he’ll be a very good play again if any of those three stars ends up sitting out.
Oubre has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games, averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. He had 32 points against Toronto on Sunday without Embiid and Maxey and followed that up with 25 points and six rebounds in Embiid’s return on Tuesday while Maxey was still out. On the season, with Maxey off the floor, Oubre has produced 1.04 DraftKings points per minute while his usage increases by over 6.3 percentage points. With both Maxey and Embiid out, he has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute, and will all three questionable starters off the court, that increases to 1.09 DraftKings points per minute.
While it’s uncertain exactly how much he’ll be called upon, Oubre has shown he can produce big numbers, and his salary of $6,500 makes him potentially a massive value depending on his usage.
Value
Since the major injury to Alperen Sengun (ankle), rookie Amen Thompson has gotten more work for the Rockets, and for the most part, he has risen to the challenge. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on this slate and is also point guard eligible which gives him unusual roster flexibility. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on this slate at point guard.
Thompson entered the starting lineup the game after Sengun’s injury and has averaged 14.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 28.9 minutes per game in his 11 games since. He posted double-digit rebounds in half of his last 10 games and double-digit points in seven of those contests. He came up just short with nine points and nine rebounds on Tuesday against the Timberwolves but should be in a bounce-back spot against the Warriors since he fits in nicely with the Rockets small-ball lineups.
Fast Break
Paul George has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all small forwards on this slate. He could get more work with Kawhi out and just had a ceiling game with 41 points on Sunday against the Hornets. However, he struggled without Leonard in Tuesday’s game against the Kings and has typically worked better as a secondary scoring option with Kawhi on the floor. He brings a very high ceiling against the Nuggets but isn’t a lock.
As a midrange target, Andrew Wiggins has good upside after exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his last eight games. He has four 20-point performances during that stretch including 23 points on Tuesday against the Mavs in his most recent contest. He’s had an up-and-down season but is surging to the finish.
As a bargain play, Garrison Mathews continues to find ways to contribute to the Hawks. He had two games with at least 20 points over the last two weeks and had nine points in each of their last two contests. He has produced 0.72 DraftKings points per minute while logging 19.6 minutes per game over Atlanta’s last seven games. Depending on who the Hawks have available on the second night of their back-to-back, he could end up bringing even more value, but even before their injury report, he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of both small forwards and shooting guards with salaries under $4,000.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Thursday’s slate is a little odd at power forward without any elite options available. Jalen Johnson has the highest ceiling, median and floor projections, and he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. While he looks to be a clear play, it’s also worth noting that this will be just his third game overall and his first back-to-back since missing six games with an ankle injury.
Johnson made his return to the starting lineup on Wednesday against the Pistons and celebrated with his first career triple-double. He dropped 76 DraftKings points on 28 points, 14 rebounds, and 11 assists in 37 minutes. That shows just how high his ceiling can be, but he will definitely be a name to double-check for on the injury report.
Overall, Johnson has had a great second season in the NBA while stepping into a larger role following the trade of John Collins. On the season, Johnson has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute in 33.8 minutes per game in his 52 contests.
Value
The Mavs Trade Deadline moves have worked out well, and P.J. Washington has been a good midrange play over Dallas’s last few games. Washington has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on this slate and the second-highest of all power forwards with salaries between $4,000 and $6,000. He also has the second-highest ceiling projection of power forwards under $6,000, behind only Andrew Wiggins (discussed above)
Washington has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games. During that stretch, he showed multiple ways he could hit his ceiling. He posted a nice double-double against the Kings last week on Tuesday and is coming off a 20-point game against Golden State in his most recent matchup. He averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over those five games while playing 32.4 minutes per game.
Fast Break
Draymond Green has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on the slate and the third-highest ceiling projection. He can be a volatile play in more ways than one, but he also brings a high ceiling with the potential for multi-category production.
On the other side of that matchup, Jabari Smith has similar projections. He had 28 points against the Mavs on Sunday in a big game and followed that up with 18 points against the Timberwolves on Tuesday. He isn’t quite as established as Draymond, but Smith brings a high enough ceiling to stand out in the log jam of power forward options in the $6,000 salary range.
If you opt to go with a cheap power forward, Trey Lyles of the Kings leaps out in our projections. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on the slate and the best of all power forwards with salaries under $5,000. At just $3,600, he doesn’t have to do much to be a great cheap play, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations by over 10 DraftKings points in each of his two games since returning from a left knee sprain.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The Kings continue to rely heavily on Domantas Sabonis to play big minutes and produce big numbers in multiple categories. He has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at center on Thursday, behind only Nikola Jokic, but Sabonis has better value projections since he is $1,700 cheaper.
Sabonis has an impressive 71 double-doubles in his 75 games this season, including 28 in a row coming into Thursday’s game in New York City. He also leads the NBA with 26 triple-doubles this season, three more than Jokic and six more than Luka. He has produced 1.49 DraftKings points per minute while playing 35.5 minutes per game on the season, and he has been right at those averages over the last month as well.
On Tuesday, Sabonis had a monster game with 22 points, 20 boards, and nine assists against the Clippers. He brings a similar upside against the Knicks on this slate and is my top center play.
Value
In addition to Washington, Daniel Gafford has proven to be a perfect fit for the Mavs since joining the team at the Trade Deadline. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on Thursday’s slate and is very affordably priced under $6,000.
Gafford has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over his 13 games this past month. He continues to be part of a rotation at center for Dallas and only averaged 23.9 minutes per game over the past month. His minutes aren’t nearly as high as some of the most expensive plays at the position, but he has made the most of his time on the court and brings a high ceiling if he gets closer to 30 minutes against Atlanta.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid returned from his 29-game absence with 24 points, seven assists, six rebounds, and 45 DraftKings points in 29 minutes. He’s questionable for Thursday’s game against the Heat and may not be ready to return value at his $11,000 salary just yet, but he’ll soon be ready to establish himself as a go-to option in DFS once he’s back up to his full workload.
Ivica Zubac will have the tough task of slowing down Jokic, but he also brings strong projections himself. Only Gafford has a better Projected Plus/Minus than Zubac in his price range, and Zubac has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight while averaging 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in 32 minutes per game.
If you look to go cheap at center, Bruno Fernando has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on this slate. Trey Lyles (discussed above) is a good fit at center, and you can also check out Jeff Green, who has been boom-or-bust for the Rockets since he started to help fill in after the injury to Sengun.
