Thursday night, the NBA has three Games 3 lined up as the first round of the playoffs rolls on. All three of these series start the night with the higher seed holding a 2-0 advantage as they go on the road for the first time in the series. The Cavs, Knicks, and Nuggets will all be looking to go up 3-0, while the Magic, 76ers, and Lakers are trying to climb back into the series with a win at home.
The injury report is fairly clean and straightforward coming into the day, but be sure to check for news and updates leading up to tip off. Mitchell Robinson (ankle), Joel Embiid (knee) and De’Anthony Melton (back) are questionable, and LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (back) are probable. Be sure to always refresh our models for the latest projections.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
While Jalen Brunson has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at point guard, Jamal Murray is right behind him in each of those categories and comes at a $1,300 discount. He has a much better Projected Plus/Minus than Brunson and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
Murray had a huge double-double with 22 points and 10 assists in Game 1 and followed that up with 20 points and five assists in Game 2. While his overall numbers were down a little, he did hit the game-winning buzzer beater, so it wasn’t a bad game. He has scored 20+ points in six straight games dating back to the regular season with an impressive average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over that span. He played 39 minutes in each of the first two games of the series and should continue to get heavy minutes on Thursday.
The Lakers don’t have an answer for Murray, and the star point guard looks ready to help the Nuggets defend their title with another deep playoff run. The Nuggets have the highest implied team total this Thursday, and their matchup also has the highest over/under. Murray’s usage may not be quite as insane as Brunson’s but he brings a similar ceiling at a much more workable salary.
Value
Tyrese Maxey won the Most Improved Player award earlier this week and has definitely looked the part in the first two games of this series. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard behind only Murray and the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection.
So far this series, Maxey has torched the Knicks for 45.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 63.25 DraftKings points in Game 2. He played 44 minutes in each game and scored over 30 points. He fell just one rebound short of a triple-double in Game 2 and took over with an amazing fourth quarter. Even with Embiid back, Maxey is carrying a huge workload for the Sixers and is a great play under $8,000 in Game 3 as the series shifts to Philly, where the home crowd will hope to give Maxey and Embiid’s squad a boost.
Fast Break
Brunson has been solid in this series even though he has fallen short of salary-based expectations. He scored 22 and 24 points, but his non-scoring numbers have been a bit down, especially compared to Murray’s and Maxey’s. He has played big minutes and has gotten high usage as usual, so the chances are there for him to break out with a monster performance if he hits more of his shots. So far in the series, he’s shooting just 29% from the field and 17% from long range.
For the Magic, Jalen Suggs continues to be a solid mid-range target. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the point guards in play under $6,000 on Thursday, and he has slightly outperformed salary-based expectations in each of the first two games of the series. He suffered a knee sprain in Game 2 but was able to return and is not on the injury report, so he should be good to go for Game 3. On the season, he averaged 3.2 more DraftKings points per game at home than on the road.
If you go with a cheap play at point guard, Kyle Lowry and Miles McBride have both been solid coming off the bench in the first two games of the series. McBride has a high ceiling if he starts hitting three-pointers, as he showed in Game 1 with 21 points. Lowry doesn’t score as many points, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the first two games of the series mostly with non-scoring production. If Melton returns, Lowry’s role will be diminished, but he should stay involved enough to be a punt play as long as Melton remains out.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With these six teams in the player pool, Donovan Mitchell stands out as by far the best stud play at shooting guard. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection by comfortable margins. He also has the highest salary though, and he is a touch overpriced according to our Projected Plus/Minus.
Mitchell dropped 30 points in Game 1 and 23 points in Game 2. He led the team in scoring in each contest while posting a 32.5% usage rate and 1.18 DraftKings points per minute. The series has been low scoring overall so far, which has kept him from being a great per-dollar play. That trend could continue in Game 3, but if you have the salary to pay up for a shooting guard, no one on this slate comes close to matching his pure upside due to his role as the focus of his team’s offense.
Value
In his high-minutes, low-usage role, Kentvaious Caldwell-Pope brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard. KCP has played over 35 minutes in each of the first two games in the series but has just a 13.3% usage rate.
He exceeded salary-based expectations in Game 1 with 12 points but only scored six points in Game 2 while adding three assists. He has a 35.9 minutes projection for Game 3 and should remain a solid mid-range contributor. His upside is somewhat limited since most of his focus is on the defensive end, but he can get hot and knock down some triples from time to time. The upside of playing KCP is that you know you’re getting plenty of minutes in the highest-scoring game environment on Thursday’s slate.
Fast Break
Austin Reaves has a slightly higher Projected Plus/Minus than KCP, but he has been a disappointment in the first two games of the series. Reaves fell well below salary-based expectations in each of the first two games of the series. Returning home may help that, and his salary has dropped to under $6,000, which is why he projects as a good value.
Another mid-range play to consider is Max Strus for the Cavs. Strus has had matching stat lines of seven points and nine rebounds in each of the first two games of the series and is playing well over 30 minutes per game. He can be a streaky scorer and has been close enough to a double-double that he makes a solid play at $5,400 at shooting guard if you don’t trust the options in Los Angeles.
In Game 2 of the Magic-Cavs series, Gary Harris delivered 14 points including four three-pointers. His scoring outburst was a little surprising after he was held without a point in Game 1. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards, so if you have to go cheaper than KCP, he brings good upside despite his volatility.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The obvious play here is LeBron James, who has the top median, ceiling, and floor projection of all small forwards. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Not surprisingly, James played big minutes with heavy usage for the Lakers in the first two games of this series, averaging 1.43 DraftKings points per minute in 39 minutes per game. He had a double-double of 26 points and 12 assists in 38 minutes on Monday for an impressive 64 DraftKings points.
Even though his team is in a 0-2 hole, James has been excellent this series, and the ageless wonder should continue to log heavy minutes and usage in Game 3. If the Lakers are going to make this a series, this feels like a game they need to win, so “Playoff LeBron” may make an appearance with a monster stat line.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Michael Porter Jr. has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the first two games against LeBron’s Lakers. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on Thursday and the highest of the options with salaries under $7,000.
MPJ has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute and 37.5 minutes in the first two games of the series and posted over 35 DraftKings points in each game. The 25-year-old is a great third option for the Nuggets behind Murray and Nikola Jokic, and he has the potential to go off in any game. He’s been just a rebound or two from a double-double as well, so that’s also a possibility from this relatively affordable price point.
Fast Break
The Knicks have several options that are eligible at small forward worth considering. Josh Hart has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position after posting double-doubles in each of the first two games of the series. He played all 48 minutes in Game 2, and his regularly heavy workload and multi-category production make him a strong play.
Donte DiVincenzo doesn’t fill as many columns in the box score, but he also brings a high ceiling and can score points in bunches when his shot drops. He bounced back nicely with 19 points in Game 2 after just eight in Game 1. OG Anunoby is also in the mix for New York, although he has fallen short of salary-based expectations in each of the first two games of the series.
In each of the first two games of Orlando’s series, Franz Wagner had 18 points and seven rebounds. He’ll likely need to step up and do more on Thursday if the Magic want to climb back into their series with Cleveland. The opportunities will be there for Wagner, and he’s a very solid mid-range play under $7,000.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Especially now that Anthony Davis is only eligible at center, Paolo Banchero stands out as a good power forward stud to build around. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on Thursday and the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections behind only LeBron. Banchero has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate behind only the elite centers discussed below.
Banchero has scored over 20 points in each of the first two games of the series, averaging 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 40.5 minutes per game with a team-high 30.4% usage rate. The second-year forward is still just 21 and growing into his role as a superstar, but he’s clearly going to have his shot to carry this team moving forward.
Coming down the stretch, Banchero posted some monster double-doubles and even a couple of triple-doubles. He has that kind of upside for this young Orlando squad on Thursday, and getting him at $8,000 is a play that could pay off.
Value
After a big Game 1, Jonathan Isaac faded into the shadows a little bit in Game 2, but Moritz Wagner has been a consistent bargain in both contests from the Orlando frontcourt. It’s helpful that both options come with power forward eligibility as well to free up your center spot for the megastars if that’s your plan.
Isaac started both games and still brings good upside even though his salary has climbed to almost $5,000. He still had the chances in Game 2, but he shot just 1-for-7 from the field. If the opportunities come his way again in Game 3, he should bounce back.
Wagner is even more of a bargain with his salary of just $3,600. He scored double-digit points in each game of this series and five of his last six games dating back to the regular season. He has yet to hit a three-pointer in the series but has still produced a team-leading 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in the series so far. If you need a bargain play at either power forward or center, Franz’s older brother is a strong option to consider.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon has been solid in the series so far, but he doesn’t bring as much upside as Porter, who is just $200 more expensive.
Several of the top power forward plays were discussed above including MPJ and Josh Hart, who is a strong play in this spot if you can afford his salary of over $7,000 but can’t spend all the way up to LeBron or Banchero.
Tobias Harris and Rui Hachimura have had disappointing series so far, but they do each bring upside if the change in venue jump starts their scoring.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The big decision on this slate is which of the two megastar centers to build around. Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are both capable of gigantic games, and they have the top-two Projected Plus/Minus numbers on the slate despite their massive price tags. While there’s no denying the upside of either star, our projections clearly lean toward Jokic, giving him the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the slate along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus, indicating he’s a better play on a per-dollar basis as well.
Jokic has crushed the Lakers all season, and in the first two games of the series, he has produced 1.72 DraftKings points per minute in 40 minutes per game. He had a 27-point triple-double in Game 2 that resulted in 75 DraftKings points.
The Joker not only brings an immensely high ceiling but has also been incredibly consistent. He has either a double-double or a triple-double in 16 straight games dating back to the regular season and has averaged 28.3 points, 13.4 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game during that run.
Value
Jokic, Embiid, and Davis have the top-three Projected Plus/Minus at center, but if you can’t spend up on those options, Isaac and Wagner (discussed above) are strong value plays in the middle. It’s easy to land on either extreme at the position, but don’t overlook how good Jarrett Allen is playing for the Cavs.
Allen had big double-doubles in each of the first two games of the series, averaging 1.4 DraftKings points per minute in a team-high 36.5 minutes per game. Allen had 16 points, 18 rebounds, and 47 DraftKings points in Game 1, and he was even better in Game 2, finishing with 16 points, 20 rebounds and 56 DraftKings points. His defensive numbers are also always solid, so he can be a great option to build around at center. Even if you don’t want to pass on the big names on this slate, keep an eye on Allen for when the Cavs are on a slate without the superstar options.
Fast Break
Even though Jokic has the edge over Embiid, it isn’t that Embiid has been bad at all. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate after producing 1.47 DraftKings points per minute in the first two games of the series. As long as he doesn’t suffer any setbacks with his knee, he should deliver another big stat line as he tries to push his Sixers back into the series with the Knicks.
After a disappointing Game 1, Isaiah Hartenstein bounced back with 35 DraftKings points in Game 2. He and Mitchell Robinson will have to try and slow down Embiid, but if Robinson ends up out or limited, Hartenstein will end up with even more minutes and be a good mid-range value play to consider. He played 30 minutes in Game 2 after being limited to just 18 in Game 1. Whichever of the Knicks centers gets more work will likely end up exceeding salary-based expectations by a wide margin.
