Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The point guard position has several players on the high-end worth getting exposure to on tonight’s five-game slate. However, the player with the highest projected ceiling in our Player model among all positions is Knicks’ Jalen Brunson. He has led the Knicks into the third seed in the Eastern Conference. Brunson has finished with over 60 DraftKings points in four consecutive games and has averaged nearly a double-double during that stretch with 39.5 points and 9.5 assists per game.
The Knicks are three-point favorites in their last road game of the season in Boston. It is unlikely they can catch the Bucks in the two seed, but getting the three seed would be massive for this Knicks team without Julius Randle. With Randle off the floor this season, Brunson has a team-high +4.68% usage rate. Expect another ceiling performance from Brunson tonight.
Value
Rockets’ rookie point guard Amen Thompson is coming off another strong performance against the Magic. He stuffed the stat sheet with 13 points, eight rebounds, four assists, two steals, and one block, while shooting a near perfect 6-for-7 from the field. Thompson has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position, and his $6,400 salary is resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating. With point guard and small forward eligibility, Thompson is easy to fit into all lineup builds on this slate.
The Rockets are double-digit road favorites against the Jazz, implied for a slate-high 119.5 points. The Jazz have several players out for the remainder of the season, and their defense has suffered the most. They have fallen to ranking dead last in defensive rating at 119.6 per game. The versatile Thompson will have a great chance to stuff the stat sheet again tonight.
Fast Break
Similar to Thompson, Fred VanVleet is in the same juicy matchup against the Jazz, but he is priced a little higher at $7,800. Despite being mathematically eliminated, VanVleet is still playing heavy minutes. He is coming off a 62-point DraftKings game where he finished with 37 points, eight rebounds, and six assists in the Rockets’ victory over the Magic. VanVleet has the second-highest projected ceiling and Plus/Minus, while being projected to play 36 minutes. He is impossible to ignore.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Sticking with the Rockets backcourt again, Jalen Green has by far the highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position. Green has posted the second-highest usage rate on the Rockets this season, and he gets a significant boost with Alperen Sengun out. With Sengun off the floor this season, Green has a team-high +5% usage rate and a +4.73 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Green has been fairly inconsistent this year, but he is always capable of a ceiling game, especially in this matchup.
Since the All-Star Break, Green has decided to let it rain from long distance. In that 25-game stretch, Green has attempted 9.1 3-pointers per game. That bodes very well for this matchup against the depleted Jazz defense that is allowing a league-high 14.8 3-pointers made per game, with opponents shooting nearly 40% from behind the arc. Let it fly, Jalen Green.
Value
Talen Horton-Tucker is back in the Jazz rotation due to all of their injuries, and he is playing extremely well. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in three-straight games and is coming off a 24-point game against the defending champion, the Denver Nuggets. Horton-Tucker has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and will be a great bring-back in Houston-heavy lineups. Priced at only $3,700, Horton-Tucker has the highest Bargain Rating on the slate at 99% with 9 Pro Trends.
The Rockets have lost five of their last six games as they have fallen out of the Western Conference playoff picture. Their defensive rating also dips from 113.5 to 116.8 with Alperen Sengun out of the lineup, which he is again tonight. Even with being double-digit home underdogs, the Jazz are still implied for 109 points, and this game has the highest total on the slate.
Fast Break
Dalano Banton has bounced around among three teams in his three-year career, but he potentially found a home with the Trail Blazers. In his 28 games played and seven starts, Banton is averaging a career-high 16.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Since getting more playing time in the middle of March, Banton has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 14 games. With many guards out for the Trail Blazers, Banton is projected to play 33 minutes and be a good value.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Bulls’ forward DeMar DeRozan is the perfect mix of ceiling and value. DeRozan has the third-highest projected ceiling on this five-game slate and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus. The veteran is having another strong season despite the Bulls being locked into the play-in tournament yet again. DeRozan is averaging a team-high 23.7 points and 5.3 assists per game. DeRozan is averaging 28.3 points per game in his last nine games, including four 30-point games during that stretch.
The Bulls are nearly double-digit road favorites against the Pistons, who are coasting their way into the NBA Draft Lottery, with the worst record in the league at 13-66. To no surprise at all, DeRozan has had no trouble dominating the Pistons in their three meetings this season. He is averaging 24.7 points per game while shooting 56.3% from the field.
Value
Finally we get to the best value play on this five-game slate with Jazz forward Luka Samanic. He has comfortably the highest projected Plus/Minus. His cheap $3,600 salary is resulting in a 93% Bargain Rating. Samanic is coming off a 15-point, 10-rebound double-double against the Nuggets. He posted 33.5 DraftKings points despite shooting just 6-for-15 from the field and 1-for-3 from behind the arc. Reaching 30 DraftKings points at this cheap salary makes him a sensational value.
Not only does the Rockets defense suffer without Alperen Sengun, but their rebounding rate does as well. Samanic could potentially record a second-straight double-double in this matchup. He is projected to start and play a modest 30 minutes. Samanic is drawing the most ownership on the slate, and his dual forward eligibility makes him easy to fit in all lineup builds.
Fast Break
Having already wrapped up the top seed in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics will likely sit most if not all of their starters. Getting this news will be the biggest that we have on this five-game slate. With so many Celtics starters questionable, this could be a great opportunity for Sam Hauser. He has filled in perfectly in the past when one or two starters are out, and he could do the same again tonight. If Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown do suit up, they are easily the top player to target.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Leading the Pelicans in scoring with 22.9 points per game, Zion Williamson is the stud power forward to get exposure to tonight. The Pelicans are currently a half-game ahead of the Suns for the last non Play-in Tournament spot in the Western Conference. This is a massive game against the Kings, who are also in the heat of the playoff picture. These two teams haven’t played since December 4th, but there is a lot on the line tonight, and the Pelicans are one-point road underdogs.
Williamson had a monster game against the Suns earlier this week, with 29 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists, and five blocks. He followed that up with a decent 22-point, seven-rebound game against the Trail Blazers Wednesday night. His ceiling could lead him into the optimal lineup tonight. Priced under $9,000, Williamson is a strong option in all formats.
Value
Jabari Smith Jr. is another Rockets value player to target tonight. Projected to play around 35 minutes, Smith Jr. has a 95% Bargain Rating at his $6,200 mid-range price tag. He has played the second-most minutes on the team behind Jalen Green with Alperen Sengun off the floor this season. Smith Jr. hasn’t seen the same boost as Green but is averaging a career-high in both points and rebounds. He will easily be able to take advantage of the weak Jazz frontcourt, especially in the paint.
The Jazz rank 22nd in points allowed in the paint this season with 51.8 per game. They have allowed 62 per game in their last three games. The Jazz have also taken a hit rebounding the ball without most of their starters in the lineup. Smith Jr. has a great chance to flirt with a double-double in this matchup. His mid-range salary is very enticing tonight.
Fast Break
Projected to play a slate-high 40 minutes tonight, Josh Hart is another fantastic mid-range option. Hart is coming off a near triple-double last game with 17 points, 13 rebounds, and seven assists while shooting 6-for-7 from the field. Hart has flirted with a triple-double a ton recently. Playing against the potential backups for the Celtics, Hart should be able to stuff the stat sheet again tonight. He is a cheap way to get exposure to the Knicks offense while still maintaining a very high ceiling.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Leading the league in rebounds with 13.8 per game and 26 triple-doubles, Domantas Sabonis has had an incredible season. Sabonis is also averaging a career-high in assists per game, while shooting 59.3% from the field and scoring nearly 20 points per game. Sabonis has the second-highest projected ceiling on this small slate and is playing in a very meaningful game. The Kings are one-point home favorites tonight, implied for 109.75 points as they look to climb the playoff standings.
The Pelicans rank top 10 in rebounding percentage and third in points allowed in the paint per game. This is a difficult matchup, but Sabonis has had no trouble against the Pelicans frontcourt. In his four meetings, Sabonis is averaging 19 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game while shooting 65.1% from the field. He is a contrarian pay-up option.
Value
Omer Yurtseven is the second Jazz player who had a double-double against the Nuggets last game. He finished with 20 points and 11 rebounds in 37 minutes of action. Yurtseven finished with over 40 DraftKings points, which easily exceeded his price point. At $4,500, Yurtseven has a 95% Bargain Rating with the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position tonight. In his nine starts for the Jazz, he is averaging a near double-double with 8.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.
With relatively weak options at the center position, Yurtseven’s center-only eligibility is not a concern. He is a strong play in cash games and has already displayed the upside necessary in tournaments. The Rockets are much worse defensively and on the glass without Alperen Sengun patrolling the paint. Expect another great game from Yurtseven, who is a strong value.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton has been one of the lone bright spots in an otherwise lost season for the Trail Blazers. In his first season with the Trail Blazers, Ayton is averaging a double-double with 16.8 points and 11.2 rebounds per game while shooting 57.6% from the field. He has been dominant recently. In his last five games, Ayton has a double-double in each game while averaging 26 points and 13.6 rebounds per game. Being $2,000 cheaper than Sabonis, Ayton may be the better option.
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