After four great NBA playoff games yesterday, four more are on the docket today starting at 1 p.m. ET, when lineups lock.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Since the All-Star Break, the Dallas Mavericks have been one of the best teams in the league. A large part of their success has been due to the excellence of four-time All-Star Luka Doncic. The phenom averaged a league-high and career-high 33.8 points per game while shooting 48.7% from the field and 38.2% from downtown. He also nearly averaged a triple-double with 9.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds per game. With a league-high 35.9% usage rate, Doncic is easily the best pay-up option.
The Clippers got the better of the Mavericks during the regular season, but these two teams haven’t played since December 20. In their three meetings, Doncic had no trouble filling it up. He averaged 34 points per game and shot 52.1% from the field. The Mavericks are a three-point favorite, and Doncic has by far the highest projected ceiling in our Player Model.
Value
Tyrese Haliburton offers a fantastic mixture of both ceiling and value on this four-game slate. He has the second-highest projected ceiling and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on this slate at his $8,800 price tag. Haliburton has a 96% Bargain Rating and a top-five ownership projection. He averaged a 20-point, 10-assist double-double for the second-straight year. Haliburton also led the league with 10.9 assists per game, and the Pacers scored a league-best 123.3 points per game.
The Pacers and Bucks is the game to target Sunday. The Pacers are 1.5-point road favorites, implied for a slate-high 116.5 points. Bucks’ superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful to play, which bodes well for the Pacers. Without Giannis in the lineup, the Bucks’ defensive rating drops from 115.8 to 121.8 this year. This is an incredible spot for Haliburton.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has seen his salary dip below $10,000 for just the third time since the middle of October. The result is a slate-high 98% Bargain Rating. However, Gilgeous-Alexander is drawing less than 10% ownership, making him an incredible contrarian pay-up option. He averaged a career-high 30.1 points per game this season, while shooting 53.5% from the field. The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites in Gilgeous-Alexander’s first playoff appearance since the 2019-20 season.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Tyler Herro led the Heat to another playoff berth last game, recording a near triple-double with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists. With Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier still sidelined, Herro will be the No. 1 option for this Heat team for the foreseeable future. He had a 30.5% usage rate last game and finished with 51 DraftKings points. Still reasonably priced at $8,100, Herro is drawing around 15% ownership Sunday. The only downside to this spot is the matchup against the Celtics.
The Heat are 14-point road underdogs against the favorites to win the NBA title. They were able to bounce the Celtics in the Conference Finals last season, but without Butler that will be a tall task. The Heat have the lowest total on the slate at 97.5 points, but Herro is still a player worth targeting due to his high projected usage rate and relatively cheap mid-range salary.
Value
The biggest news on this four-game slate is the status of Clippers’ star Kawhi Leonard. He has not played in a game since March 31 and is questionable to play Sunday due to a knee injury. With Leonard’s status in jeopardy, Clippers’ shooting guard Norman Powell will likely see more playing time off the bench. Priced at $4,500 with shooting-guard and small-forward eligibility, Powell is one of the best values on the slate. He will look even better if Leonard is ruled out for Game 1.
In his second full season with the Clippers, Powell averaged double-digit points off the bench for the fifth-straight year. He shot a career-best 43.5% from behind the arc, with over half of his field-goal attempts coming from distance. In his last two games in this matchup, Powell averaged 18 points per game while shooting 11-for-14 from the field and 6-for-9 from deep.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram finally played his full allotment of minutes with 37 in the last Play-In Tournament game to secure the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. Ingram looked phenomenal with 24 points, six rebounds, and six assists and finished with 41 DraftKings points. With Zion Williamson out with an injury, that will boost the production for Ingram. When Williamson has been off the floor this season, Ingram is averaging a team-high +4.56% usage rate and a +5.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Paul George is the Clippers player who would benefit the most if Kawhi Leonard was unable to suit up. With Leonard off the floor this season, George is averaging a team-high +3.74% usage rate and a +3.92 DraftKings Plus/Minus. With shooting-guard and small-forward eligibility, George is easy to fit in any lineup build. His $8,000 salary is also resulting in 10 Pro Trends, which is tied for the second-highest on the slate. There is plenty to love about George whether or not Leonard plays.
The veteran small forward averaged over 22 points per game for the fourth consecutive season. He shot 41.3% from behind the arc and has displayed a ceiling that is worth getting exposure to. The Clippers are home underdogs against the red-hot Mavericks, but this is a great matchup for George to impose his will on both ends of the floor, especially if Leonard is out.
Value
Losing out on over 30 points per game from Giannis will be difficult to overcome for the Bucks on Sunday. They desperately need help on the offensive side of the ball, which is where Khris Middleton can be at his best. With Giannis off the floor this season, Middleton is averaging a team-high +8.05% usage rate. In his seven games without Giannis, Middleton is shooting 51.2% from the field. For the Bucks to stay competitive and keep up with the Pacers pace, Middleton will need to fill it up.
Due to the Pacers’ pace of play, their defense suffers. They rank 24th in defensive rating this season and are allowing 120.2 points per game, which is the highest among any of the remaining playoff teams. Middleton is drawing nearly 30% projected ownership Sunday. His $7,200 price tag is resulting in a 73% Bargain Rating and eight Pro Trends, making him a great value.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has been a key piece for the Pacers since joining the team at the trade deadline. He is averaging a team-high 21.3 points per game, while shooting a career-high 54.9% from the field and 38.6% from long distance. Siakam is another player in this game environment that who feels underpriced in the mid-range. A balanced lineup may be the best avenue for success on this four-game slate. Siakam should have no problem finishing at the rim without Giannis available.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Finally the Boston Celtics get to play a meaningful basketball game. They have been coasting to the NBA Playoffs for what feels like a month now with the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference locked up. This may be another cakewalk for them, being a slate-high 14-point home favorite against the Miami Heat. They are a league-best 37-4 at home and 3-0 against the Heat. Forward Jayson Tatum is coming off another great year, leading the Celtics in both scoring and rebounding yet again.
Tatum has the third-highest projected ceiling behind Doncic and Haliburton tonight. He is one of three players with 10 Pro Trends and is the Celtics player to target. Despite the Heat ranking fifth in defensive rating, Tatum has had no trouble in this matchup. With Jimmy Butler out, the Heat have no one to match up with the size of Tatum on the perimeter.
Value
The best value on the entire slate is Bucks big man Bobby Portis. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus and is currently drawing the highest ownership on the slate. With power-forward and center eligibility, Portis will be a staple in cash-game lineups tonight. In nine games without Giannis this season, Portis is averaging a massive double-double with 20.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. His usage rate jumps 4.2% and he is shooting 59.8% from the field and 64.3% from deep.
Easily the best area to attack the Pacers defense is in the paint. They ranked dead last in interior defense, allowing a league-high 58.7 points per game in the paint this season. The Pacers also ranked 24th in rebounding percentage, making this a fantastic matchup for Portis. He has a great chance at another double-double, which is very valuable at his $6,600 salary.
Fast Break
Jaime Jaquez Jr. is another Heat player who will see a boost in usage rate and production without Butler and Rozier. Jaquez Jr. has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four-straight games, while averaging 18.5 points, 5.5 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 36.2 DraftKings points per game during that time. His salary has jumped to $5,500, but he is still a strong value play given the Heat’s injury situation. The matchup is tough, but Jaquez Jr. can stuff the stat sheet in a variety of ways.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The center position is lacking star power on this four-game slate compared to Saturday’s action. Bam Adebayo leads the center position with the highest projected ceiling. He has nine Pro Trends, but he is drawing less than 10% ownership due to this matchup against the Celtics frontcourt. Adebayo has averaged 22.7 points per game in three meetings with the Celtics this year and averaged a double-double for the third time in his last five years. He is fully capable of a ceiling game Sunday.
The Celtics ranked in the top 10 this season in points allowed in the paint, rebounding percentage, and defensive rating. However, Adebayo does see a significant increase playing without Jimmy Butler. In his 21 games played without Butler this season, Adebayo has seen an increase in his points, rebounds, and assists per game. He is a strong contrarian option.
Value
Thunder center Chet Holmgren has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position behind the Bucks big men. Holmgren provided a spectacular rookie season with 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game, while shooting 53% from the field and 37% from downtown. He looked like a seasoned veteran and will now get his first taste of playoff basketball. Holmgren can take advantage of this matchup with his versatility both in the paint and on the perimeter Sunday.
Especially with Zion Williamson out, the Pelicans do not pose much of a threat on the interior. In their three meetings this season, Holmgren averaged a double-double with 18.3 points and 11 rebounds per game. He also shot 55.8% from the field and recorded two blocks per game. His versatility stands out and makes Holmgren a strong value in all formats in this spot.
Fast Break
Going back to Bucks frontcourt, Brook Lopez will be another popular value play at his $5,300 salary. Lopez has seen a usage increase without Giannis on the floor, but his production is boom or bust. Where Lopez can make his presence felt is on the glass and defensive end. The Pacers have a 49.2% rebounding percentage and attempt the most field goals in the league at 92.7 per game. This game environment will provide plenty of opportunity for Lopez to exceed his price tag Sunday.
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