There are just three weeks left in the NBA regular season, and this week, Monday night gets things off to a fast start with 11 games on the schedule. On DraftKings, nine of those games make up the main DFS fantasy basketball slate, which tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Of the 18 teams on the main slate, the Cavaliers and Pistons are the only two playing for the second day in a row, while the Mavericks are the only team on the main slate that has another game scheduled for Tuesday.
As usual in the final month of the season, injury and availability updates throughout the day will likely have a large impact on Monday’s slate. Be sure to always refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and adjustments leading up to tip-off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Rockets continue to soar and are making a serious charge for the Play-In Tournament after winning eight straight games. During their surge, Fred VanVleet has been outstanding, and he’s a great play to build around again on Monday. FVV has the fifth-highest ceiling projection of all point guards and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
VanVleet is coming off a season-high 34 points on Saturday against the Jazz. He only played 28 minutes but tied the franchise record with 10 three-pointers while also adding seven assists, three rebounds, and two steals. Over the last month, he has produced 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in 36.6 minutes per game. He has a 19.7% usage rate and 31.3% assist rate in those 12 games.
On Monday, he and the Rockets host the Blazers in a fantasy-friendly matchup. He should be in a good enough matchup to be a strong, reliable centerpiece to build around that brings elite upside from his salary, which is still relatively affordable at just over $8,000.
Value
While the Rockets have been rising, the Raptors are limping to the finish. The team is dealing with multiple injuries and has been left very short-handed over the last few games. All their absences have opened up playing time for some good value options, though, and Javon Freeman-Liberty is one player who has taken advantage of the opportunity. On Monday’s slate, Freeman-Liberty has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on the entire slate.
Freeman-Liberty has played over 20 minutes in each of the last three games for Toronto, getting one start during that span and averaging 24.3 minutes with 15.2% usage. He has only produced 0.66 DraftKings points per minute but has been playing enough minutes that he’s still been a good value from his salary under $4,000.
On Monday, the Raptors will be without Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Jontay Porter due to personal reasons. Freeman-Liberty has been a star in the G League for the Raptors this season, and he should continue to be a solid value option in this favorable matchup at home against the Nets. As long as he logs 20+ minutes again, he should be able to return solid value.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of any player on the slate on Monday night as his Mavs face the Jazz for a second straight game. Luka had 34 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists in Dallas’ 16-point win on Thursday. Doncic has fallen short of salary-based expectations in three straight games but always brings the potential to post a triple-double that totally breaks the slate. If you can find a way to make his huge salary fit under your cap, he brings an enormously high ceiling.
The Hawks have been leaning heavily on Dejounte Murray while Trae Young (finger) has been sidelined, and Murray has been up to the task. He has produced 1.41 DraftKings points per minute in 36.4 minutes per game over his last 15 contests while posting a team-high 29.7% usage rate. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last eight games and posted four straight double-doubles coming into Monday’s tough matchup with the Celtics.
The Celtics have been taking advantage of their big lead in the Eastern Conference to get some players some rest, and it may be Derrick White’s turn on Monday. He has only missed one game over the last month and has helped cover for Jrue Holiday (shoulder), who will remain out Monday. If White is out, Payton Pritchard would likely step into an even bigger role. Pritchard isn’t as cheap as he was before getting regular time, but he is worth a look even at $5,600 if White is out. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games, averaging 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in 34.8 minutes per game.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Suns and Spurs finish a two-game set in San Antonio on Monday night, and it should be a great spot to build around Devin Booker. Booker has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all shooting guards on Monday’s slate, and his salary is still just under $9,000. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on the slate as well.
Booker had 32 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds in Saturday’s win over the Spurs. He has scored 30+ points in back-to-back games and at least 21 points in 10 of his 11 games since the All-Star Break. He has produced 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in 36.7 minutes per game over that stretch and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games.
The Suns are currently sixth in the Western Conference with a 1/2 game lead on the Kings and Mavs for the last spot above the Play-In Tournament. They’ll need a strong push to the finish over the next three weeks, and now that Booker is back, look for them to continue to lean on their star for big minutes and production. Phoenix has the highest implied team total on the slate in this favorable matchup against the Spurs.
Value
The Knicks have turned to Miles McBride for heavy minutes since the latest injury setback to OG Anunoby (elbow). McBride has started the last three games for the Knicks and played 44+ minutes in each of those three games, including logging all 48 minutes of the Knicks’ 12-point win against the Nets on Saturday. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those three games and had 26 points in that win on Saturday.
When called upon for big minutes this season, McBride has been very productive. In his starts this season, he has averaged 18.4 points, 4.5 assists, 3.5 threes, 3.1 boards, and 1.3 steals in 43.0 minutes per contest. With Anunoby still sidelined Monday against the Pistons, McBride brings both a high floor and a high ceiling with so many minutes coming his way.
McBride has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards priced under $6,000 on this slate and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of shooting guards in that price range.
Fast Break
Jalen Green has been excellent for the Rockets during their recent run and gets that juicy matchup with the under-manned Blazers on Monday. In his 10 games on DraftKings in March, Green has produced 1.23 DraftKings points per minute and has posted a 28.5% usage rate. He has picked up more of the scoring load since the injury to Alperen Sengun (ankle) and has poured in 25+ points in five straight games, including over 40 points in two of his last three.
As a midrange option, Jordan Poole brings a high ceiling if he’s able to play through a questionable tag for the Wizards against the Bulls. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and all shooting guards. Poole had an impressive 18-point, 12-assist double-double against the Raptors on Saturday while leading the Wizards to their second straight win. He’ll have to carry more of the offense with Kyle Kuzma (shoulder) and Tyus Jones (ankle) out.
If Poole is also out, Jared Butler, Jules Bernard and Johnny Davis could be elite value plays as the only real guard options available for the Wizards.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
While the Wizards won’t have Kuzma and may not have Poole, one player they have been getting great production from is Deni Avdija, who recently returned from his own four-game absence. Avdija has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on Monday’s slate and the fourth-highest ceiling, median and floor projection. His salary is still fairly affordable at $7,200.
Avdija has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his two games since returning from injury and in five of his last six overall. He has three double-doubles during that span and two more games with nine rebounds, falling just short. In those six games, he averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute.
With Kuzma, Poole, and Tyus Jones (back) off the floor, Avdija has posted a 24.4% usage rate this season and produced 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. He’s projected for 24.5% usage on Monday in 34.1 minutes, which should make him a great midrange option to build around as the Wizards look to make it three straight wins by beating the Bulls.
Value
One extremely cheap play with good upside on Monday’s slate is Lonnie Walker IV, who should get more playing time for the Nets with Cameron Johnson (toe) ruled out. Walker has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on DraftKings and can also slide to shooting guard for extra roster flexibility.
Walker has played limited minutes lately, but the last time he played 20+ minutes, he had 21 points and four rebounds against the Pistons. In the previous game, he had 19 points and four boards against the 76ers. He has been good when given the opportunity, and he’s in a great matchup against the Raptors. If enough of Johnson’s minutes come his way, he could be a high-risk play that pays off. He brings a very high ceiling at just $3,400.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan continues to be consistent while carrying the load for the Bulls. He usually plays big minutes and logs heavy usage, with the only recent exception being the game he was ejected from last Thursday. He played well in Saturday’s loss to the Celtics and has exceeded salary-based expectations in 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over his 15 games since the All-Star Break. In a favorable matchup with the Wizards, he is a solid pay-up play to consider.
The Spurs had been getting good work from Jeremy Sochan before the second-year forward struggled in Saturday’s blowout loss to Phoenix. Before that, though, he had exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his previous 11 games, averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.1% usage rate. The Spurs were on the second night of a back-to-back and hopefully will have a strong showing from Sochan and the rest of the team on Monday.
While the Blazers are struggling to the finish line, they’re giving their rookies plenty of run. Kris Murray was part of their all-rookie starting five on Saturday night and had 11 points and seven rebounds in 40 minutes against the Nuggets. Murray has scored double-digit points in five of his last six games and exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games coming in Monday’s matchup with Houston.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Celtics have gotten both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown rest nights, but when he’s been on the floor, Tatum has been very productive. The two J’s will likely have more playmaking responsibilities on Monday night if Derrick White (discussed above) gets the night off. Tatum has the highest ceiling, median and floor projections of all power forwards even with White in our projections. He’ll get an added boost if more of the work comes his way Monday in Atlanta.
Tatum has scored over 25 points in each of his last seven games and 11 of his last 12. In those dozen games, he averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute in 35.1 minutes per game with a 32.0% usage rate. With White off the floor during that span, Tatum’s production has jumped to 1.56 DraftKings points per minute and his usage has increased to 35.6%.
The Hawks are short-handed at forward after multiple injuries, so they should be a great matchup for Tatum this Monday.
Value
Aaron Gordon stepped up for the Nuggets on Saturday with 22 points and 12 rebounds in 37 minutes against the Trail Blazers. Denver was without superstars Jamal Murray (ankle) and Nikola Jokic (back/hip) for that game and listed both as questionable for Monday’s matchup with Memphis as well. Gordon has been playing well enough to be a solid midrange option even if Murray and Jokic return, but he’ll be an elite value if either or both miss a second straight game.
Gordon has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute while playing 32.7 minutes per game over his last six games. He has an 18.4% usage rate during that span and an 18.0% usage rate on the season, but in Saturday’s game he had a 28% usage rate and showed what he can do when called upon for more offense.
Fast Break
With so few options available for the Raptors, Kelly Olynyk has been very involved for the Raptors. He had a double-double with 14 points and 10 assists on Thursday in Washington and has scored double-digit points in seven of his last eight. In those eight games, he averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in 29.0 minutes per game. Ochai Agbaji has also benefited from the extra run, exceeding salary-based expectations in four straight games.
The Rockets have gotten solid bench production from veteran Jeff Green over the last three games while they continue to navigate the loss of Alperen Sengun (ankle). Green has scored at least 12 points in three straight contests and had 21 on Saturday against the Jazz. If he plays 24 minutes as projected, he should be a solid value option at barely over $4,000.
Just under $4,000, Aleksej Pokusevski has been getting enough work for the Hornets to be worth a look as a cheap play. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last five games and had a nice game on Saturday against the Hawks, finishing with nine points, five boards, and four assists in 24 minutes.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Jokic isn’t the only stud center with a questionable tag on Monday. Victor Wembanyama (ankle) is also uncertain for San Antonio’s rematch against the Suns. If he’s able to play, though, he brings a high enough ceiling that he’s worth spending up for if you can make his salary work. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at center by a wide margin (without Jokic in our projections).
Wemby only played 21 minutes in Saturday’s loss since it turned into a blowout early, and the Spurs were playing for the second night in a row. While he fell short of salary-based expectations in that contest, he had exceeded them in eight of his 12 games before that. Since the All-Star Break, the rookie has posted an impressive 1.78 DraftKings points per minute in 31.1 minutes per game.
If he is cleared to play and gets his normal workload, Wemby is not only must-see TV, but he’s also becoming an option you have to consider building your DFS fantasy team around since he brings such a sky-high ceiling.
Value
Jock Landale has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on Monday’s slate, and the big man from Australia has been getting more work since the Rockets lost Sengun. He has averaged 21.6 minutes per game over his last seven contests and averaged 10.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game over that stretch. During that span, he has produced a solid 1.17 DraftKings points per minute off the bench.
Landale is projected for 27.9 minutes in Monday’s matchup with the Trail Blazers and should be able to take advantage of their short-handed frontcourt.
Fast Break
If both Wemby and Jokic end up getting the night off, Jarrett Allen would step up as the top elite play as his Cavs take on the Hornets in a soft matchup. He had a down game in Sunday’s blowout loss to the Heat but had scored 15+ points in 10 of his previous 11 games, producing 1.21 DraftKings points per minute in 35.6 minutes per game.
Richaun Holmes is a strong midrange play, especially with Kuzma out for the Wizards. Holmes has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers and has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games. In those seven games, he produced 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in 34.9 minutes per game.
The man who Holmes replaced in Washington, Daniel Gafford continues to thrive in Dallas. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging 1.41 DraftKings points per minute in 24.1 minutes per game. He had 24 points on Saturday in the first game of this two-game set against Utah.
