Tonight features the last two games of the Play-In Tournament to decide the eight seed in each conference. Leading us off at 7 p.m. ET is the Eastern Conference battle between the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls. The winner gets the difficult task of trying to knock off the best team in the league, the Boston Celtics. The nightcap features a Western Conference showdown between the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings, with the winner facing the OKC Thunder. Both games tonight are within a two-point spread and there is plenty of injury information to cover.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Kings’ point guard De’Aaron Fox has the second-highest projected ceiling in our Player model for this two-game slate. In the Kings Play-In Tournament victory over the Warriors on Wednesday night, Fox finished with 24 points, six assists, four rebounds, and two steals. Fox has been one of the most consistent scorers this year and ended the regular season with a career-high 26.6 points per game. With another do-or-die game tonight, expect an offensively aggressive Fox in this spot.
Despite playing on the road and losing all five of their games against the Pelicans this season, the Kings come into tonight as 1.5-point favorites. The Pelicans ranked sixth in defensive rating, allowing only 110.7 points per game. This is a difficult matchup, but Fox did score 33 points on 11-for-18 shooting with eight assists in their last meeting a little over a week ago.
Value
Staying in the Kings’ backcourt, Keon Ellis has been a spark plug for this starting lineup. Proving to be a capable scorer and tenacious defender, Ellis has earned his uptick in playing time recently. Ellis played 39 minutes in their last game and stuffed the stat sheet with 15 points, five assists, four rebounds, three steals, and three blocks. He shot 5-for-8 from the field and 3-for-4 from behind the arc. He captured 40 DraftKings points and recorded his third-straight game with a positive Plus/Minus.
Priced at $5,000 with point guard and shooting guard eligibility, Ellis is one of the best values on the slate. He looks great in our tools even though he is projected to play five fewer minutes than he did last game. With Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter still out, Ellis has filled their roles perfectly. With Monk and Huerter off the floor, Ellis has a +2.82 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Coby White went bananas against the Hawks to put the Bulls in position to make the playoffs tonight. He scored a game-high 42 points while shooting a ridiculous 15-for-21 from the field. Tonight will be a much different test defensively, but White has shot the ball well against the Heat this season. Even with a rising salary to $7,500, White is projected to play over 40 minutes and be a fantastic point guard option. Playing with nothing to lose, this is another great spot to take White.
With Zion Williamson already ruled out and Brandon Ingram potentially still on a minutes limit, the Pelicans need a huge performance from CJ McCollum to keep their season alive. McCollum struggled against the Lakers last game, shooting just 4-for-15 from the field and failing to score double-digit points for the first time in over a month. Expect a bounce back for McCollum who averaged 26 points per game against the Kings while shooting 60.4% from the field and 70.4% from deep.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Welcome to the Tyler Herro show. With Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier out for the Heat, Herro is going to hunt his shot early and often in this elimination game. The microwave scorer ranks third on this two-game slate in both projected ceiling and projected Plus/Minus. In their one-point loss Wednesday night against the 76ers, Herro put up 27 field goal attempts including 14 three-pointers. He finished with a near double-double, scoring 25 points with nine assists and a 31.8% usage rate.
The Heat have arguably the best matchup on the slate, going against a Bulls defense that ranked 22nd in defensive rating this season. They also desperately struggle guarding the perimeter. Opponents attempted a league-high 39.5 three-pointers per game against them, making them at a 37% clip. Bombs away, Herro. He is also very affordable, being priced under $8,000.
Value
One of the other few true punt plays on this slate is Kings’ backup guard Davion Mitchell. Projected to play over 20 minutes tonight, Mitchell does not need to do much to pay off his $3,600 salary. Mitchell has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in six of his last 10 games and is the perfect avenue to a stars and scrubs lineup build. There are a few ways in which Mitchell can rack up fantasy points in this matchup tonight. One is his play making and assists, while the other is his perimeter shooting.
The Pelicans were right behind the Bulls in three-pointers allowed this season at 38.7 per game. That bodes well for Mitchell who shot 46.5% from behind the arc in his last 12 regular season games. Mitchell is a cheap way to get exposure to a Kings offense that has the highest implied total on the slate at 105.75 points. The big question is whether he is needed or not.
Fast Break
One of the only hopes for the Pelicans is the health of Brandon Ingram. Make sure to monitor his status if there is any news of a lifted minutes restriction. Ingram only played 25 minutes against the Lakers. He is projected to play around 35 tonight, which immediately puts him into the conversation for the best play on the Pelicans. With Zion Williamson off the floor this season, Ingram is averaging a team-high +4.56% usage rate and a +5.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He just needs the minutes.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
DeMar DeRozan continues to be underpriced for what he has done to put the Bulls one win away from a playoff spot. At $8,400 with small forward and power forward eligibility, DeRozan has a 94% Bargain Rating. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 12 games while scoring at least 20 points in every game during that time. The forward position is weak tonight, which makes DeRozan look that much better. He has the highest projected ceiling at this position by far.
DeRozan has played 44 minutes in back-to-back games and is projected for a slate-high 42 minutes. He leads the team in scoring, assists, and usage rate per game while shooting 48% from the field. Similar to his teammate Coby White, DeRozan has had no trouble in this matchup, averaging 22 points per game and shooting 55.1% from the field and 46.2% from deep.
Value
The highest-owned player on this small slate is expected to be Kings’ starting forward Harrison Barnes. Priced at just $4,500, Barnes has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four consecutive games. His cheap salary is resulting in a 91% Bargain Rating, making him an elite value. During that four-game stretch, Barnes is averaging 17 points, five rebounds, and 31.5 DraftKings points per game. He is also projected to play 35 minutes, which will give him plenty of time to exceed his salary-based expectations.
It has been a roller-coaster season for Barnes, but with Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter out, his playing time is solidified, and his production is needed to get the Kings to the playoffs. Barnes is one of the few Kings players who has fared well against the Pelicans this season, averaging 14.8 points per game while shooting 49% from the field and 41.4% from behind the arc.
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Expected to see an increase in minutes tonight, sharpshooter Trey Murphy is a great way to get exposure to the Pelicans’ offense. Murphy has continued his excellent perimeter shooting while increasing his scoring to a career-high 14.8 points per game. The third-year pro is also averaging career highs across the board in rebounds and assists per game this season. Priced in the middle range with shooting guard and small forward eligibility, Murphy is projected for nearly 50% ownership.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The weakest position on the slate has to be power forward, with limited pay-up options to choose from. Priced under $6,000, Keegan Murray has the highest projected ceiling at this position besides the aforementioned DeMar DeRozan. He is coming off a stellar 32-point game in their victory over the Warriors. Murray scored 11 of the Kings’ first 13 points and finished the game shooting 10-for-20 from the field and 8-for-13 from downtown. Murray also had a near double-double with nine rebounds.
Murray has looked much more comfortable in his second year in the league, averaging a career-high 15.2 points per game. Fewer field goal attempts from him are coming from behind the arc, but he can still pour in a bunch from long distance. Murray is second on the slate in projected ownership, and his $5,900 salary is resulting in a 91% Bargain Rating for tonight’s game.
Value
Rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. has put together an impressive season that will likely land him on the All-Rookie first team. When the Heat have needed him the most these last three games, Jaquez Jr. is averaging 17.7 points per game while shooting 50% from the field. With Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier off the floor this season, Jaquez Jr. has played a team-high 1,107 total minutes. He is projected to play around 34 minutes tonight and is right behind Murray in projections and ownership.
In his four meetings with the Bulls this season, Jaquez Jr. has displayed his versatility and scoring ability. He is averaging 16.3 points per game while shooting 53.3% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. For the Heat to advance without two of their starters, Jaquez Jr. will have to have a superb game. Against this Bulls defense, anything is possible tonight.
Fast Break
Another player who is priced under $4,000 worth getting exposure to is Kings’ backup power forward and center Trey Lyles. He is only $3,700 and is projected to play around 20 minutes tonight. Over the last two games, Lyles is averaging over one DraftKings points per minute. He has a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games and has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus at this position. With dual eligibility and a great price tag, Lyles is easy to fit into any lineup build.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Leading the slate with the highest projected ceiling and projected Plus/Minus is Kings’ center Domantas Sabonis. Despite looking incredible all season and leading the league in rebounds per game and most triple-doubles with 26, Sabonis is only $9,500 tonight. His price tag is resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating and a slate-high 11 Pro Trends. Sabonis is projected for around 50% ownership, which still feels a little low given how he is the clear-cut top pay-up option for this two-game slate.
The Pelicans have been great defending the paint and rebounding, but Sabonis has had his success against this frontcourt. In their four meetings, Sabonis is averaging a double-double with 18.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, while shooting 65.5% from the field. With no Zion Williamson in the paint, expect Sabonis to continue his paint domination in this matchup.
Value
Playing against Sabonis will be Pelicans’ center Jonas Valanciunas. Priced under $5,000, Valanciunas has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus behind Sabonis and is projected for around 35% ownership. It is hard to believe he is this cheap even though his playing time has been sporadic. Despite being projected for 22 minutes, Valanciunas has the ability to post a double-double, and he has the second-highest DraftKings Plus/Minus on the team without Williamson on the floor.
In his five games against Sabonis and the Kings’ frontcourt this season, Valanciunas is averaging a double-double with 14.2 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. He is shooting 64.3% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. His size has been known to cause problems for Sabonis, and without Williamson, the Pelicans need Valanciunas to hold it down in the paint tonight.
Fast Break
The Bam Adebayo and Nikola Vucevic matchup is the most intriguing spot on this two-game slate. Adebayo has gotten the better of Vucevic this season, averaging 23.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game compared to Vucevic’s 17.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game average. Adebayo is also a little more expensive than Vucevic, but gets the slight nod due to playing without Jimmy Butler. Expect the versatile center to be more involved in the Heat’s game plan without Butler.
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