The NBA has nine games cued up for the final night of November, giving us a solid set of options to analyze for DFS fantasy basketball. There are a few smash spots to target and a few to avoid. It’s also important to note that the Detroit Pistons, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, and Utah Jazz are all playing for the second day in a row. The New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs are scheduled to turn around and play on Friday to finish their back-to-backs.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Hawks have the highest implied team total on the slate and face the Spurs in San Antonio in what is projected to be the most fantasy-friendly game environment on the slate. As a result, Trae Young has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all point guards. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel.
Young was a popular pick in his last game on Tuesday but was a disappointment, so public sentiment may be down on him creating a good spot for leverage. Before that down game, Young was off to a great start to the season. He had exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight straight games and on DraftKings in seven of those eight games. In those eight games, he had an average Plus/Minus of 7.6 DraftKings points and 10.0 FanDuel points. He produced 1.51 DraftKings points and 1.42 FanDuel points per minute during that run.
He’s in a great matchup to return to form as he takes on the Spurs, who rank fourth in the NBA in pace and fourth-worse in defensive rating. They have the worst net rating in the league and have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards.
With a projected usage rate of 30.0% across 35.1 projected minutes, Trae should be a great option to build around from the point guard spot on Thursday night.
Value
One of the most significant injuries on Thursday’s slate is Anthony Edwards (hip), who is doubtful as the Timberwolves host the Jazz. Utah lost in Memphis last night and will be a good matchup for the players who get a usage increase with Edwards off the floor. One of the main beneficiaries is expected to be former Jazz point guard Mike Conley.
The veteran has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating, and he also ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Edwards hasn’t missed a game this season, so the exact breakdown of his vacated usage is a little murky. With him off the floor, though, Conley has an 11.6% usage rate and a team-high 28.2% assist rate.
Lately, Conley has been excellent for the Timberwolves, exceeding salary-based expectations on FanDuel in five straight games by producing 0.95 DraftKings points and 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over that span. He’ll be running the offense in a great spot against the Jazz, so he’s a great mid-range target for Tuesday.
Editor’s note: Conley’s projection has changed since this article was submitted. Check the NBA Player Models for updates.
Fast Break
Aside from Trae, the best top-dollar point guards on this slate are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton. Both offer extremely high ceilings that could definitely make them worth their high price. SGA has the better matchup, as he faces the Lakers on the second night of their back-to-back. He has scored over 30 points in three straight games and continues to be a high-usage creator and contributor across the board. Halliburton has also been outstanding, producing seven double-doubles in his last nine games. On the season, Haliburton is producing 1.59 DraftKings points and 1.51 FanDuel points per minute. On DraftKings, SGA is the better value for his salary, but on FanDuel, Haliburton is $1,000 cheaper and, therefore a better option despite his severe pace-down spot against the Heat.
The slate also offers a great second tier of options with Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, and Stephen Curry. Mitchell just lit up the Hawks for 40 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists on Tuesday, smashing salary-based expectations in one of his best games of the season. Lillard has scored over 30 points in three straight games and seems to be gelling with his new teammates very well now that everyone is healthy. Lillard has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in 10 of his last 12 games.
Jalen Brunson didn’t have to do much to get the Knicks past the Hornets on Tuesday, but before that, he had 24+ points in seven straight games. He’s in a great matchup against the Pistons, who were crushed by the Lakers on Wednesday in their 15th straight loss.
In the mid-range, D’Angelo Russell continues to be a solid play for the Lakers. He has produced 1.10 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute on the season and is coming off an excellent 35-point, nine-assist game on Wednesday in Detroit.
Immanuel Quickley has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings, with Jeremy Sochan of the Spurs just behind him.
If you are bargain hunting at point guard, Andrew Nembhard and Shake Milton have the top two Projected Plus/Minus of point guards under $5K on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Milton and Nembhard are joined by Tre Jones and Cason Wallace, who returned to the bench with Jalen Williams back in the lineup on Tuesday. Wallace may actually get more usage and production in the Thunder’s second unit, so it isn’t necessarily a downgrade for the rookie.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Clippers are starting to click and have gone 5-2 in their last seven games, including impressive wins over the Kings and Mavericks in their last three games. The workshare between the three superstars of James Harden, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard has fluctuated as they find their groove, but George continues to be one of the best plays at shooting guard and small forward every time L.A. is on the slate.
George has the highest floor projection and the second-highest median projection at shooting guard on FanDuel and the third-highest median and fourth-highest ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings. He has had down games while deferring to the other two stars in his last two games but did match his season-high with seven assists in Wednesday’s win over the Kings.
On the season, George has produced 1.17 DraftKings points and 1.14 FanDuel points per minute with a healthy 29% usage rate. He matches 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and nine on DraftKings, both of which tie him for the most of any shooting guard on the slate.
The Clippers are playing for the second night in a row, and the last time that happened, George had over 25% usage with over 25 points in their nice win over the Mavs. As always, keep close track of the injury news to see if any of the Clippers stars get the night off. If they all play, though, look for George to pick back up more of the scoring load and be a top stud play once again in this favorable matchup against the Warriors in this West Coast spotlight matchup Thursday.
Value
Even though he’s coming off the bench for the Hawks, Bogdan Bogdanovic has been an excellent value this season. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of both shooting guards and small forwards on Thursday’s slate on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he is just a little bit lower but still shows very well.
Bogdanovic has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his past 12 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has scored double-digit points in 13 straight games, averaging 17.2 points per contest and producing 1.07 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute in an average of 27.0 minutes per game.
In almost every game situation, Bogdanovic logs heavy minutes and usage, so he’s a very solid play on the wing in what should be a great game environment for him to thrive in San Antonio.
Fast Break
Stephen Curry (on DraftKings) and Donovan Mitchell rank right around George for the top spot in our projections, but they each cost more than PG and come with a little more risk.
Dejounte Murray has scuffled a bit in the Hawks’ last few games, but he’ll definitely get plenty of attention as he returns to San Antonio for this matchup. Last year, in his first game after being traded, he finished with 22 points, eight assists, and six rebounds in an eight-point Hawks loss. Murray has the second-highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings.
As he has been regularly lately, Zach LaVine (foot) is questionable for Thursday’s game against the Bucks. However, he had to leave Tuesday’s game with the right foot soreness, so there would seem to be more of a chance he actually misses this game. DeMar DeRozan (ankle) also left that game and is listed as questionable. If one plays and one sits, the player in the lineup will have a heavy workload and a high ceiling. If both sit, there will be a ton of usage for the value plays in the Bulls lineup. The Bulls’ injury report will be one of the most important to monitor on the news page leading up to tipoff.
Malcolm Brogdon continues to play a huge role for the Trail Blazers and produces good numbers in almost every game. His salary has gotten so high, though, that he has fallen below salary-based expectations in four straight games.
I almost highlighted Spencer Dinwiddie as one of my top plays of the day since he has been on fire lately. However, the return of Cam Thomas could take away some of his usage and reduce his role enough that he isn’t due to his elevated salary.
Devin Vassell is a solid midrange play who has been steady for the Spurs since returning from an injury. Max Strus has also been a steady contributor for the Cavs after joining the team as a free agent this past offseason. Buddy Hield can be a streaky scorer for the Pacers, and the game situation isn’t great, but on FanDuel, he still has one of the better Projected Plus/Minus since he also has a 98% Bargain Rating.
The Timberwolves’ Nickeil Alexander-Walker is expected to be the top cheap play by a wide margin as he helps fill in for Edwards. NAW has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He didn’t do much last game with just three points in 26 minutes, so he does have bust potential to go with his high upside in an expanded role Thursday night.
If you’re looking for other bargains at the position, NAW’s two teammates, Shake Milton and Troy Brown Jr. can both slot in at shooting guard on DraftKings, as can the Pacers’ Andrew Nembhard. On FanDuel, Terance Mann has the next-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the sub-$5K options behind Alexander-Walker.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
In each of his last two games, LeBron James has been able to play under 30 minutes. He took it easy in a blowout win over the Pistons on Wednesday after sitting for much of Monday’s game because the Lakers were on the other end of a lopsided score in Philly. With the lighter workload, he should be ready and able to take on his usual responsibilities in this tough, up-tempo matchup in Oklahoma City against the Thunder.
On DraftKings, The King has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at small forward. On FanDuel, he is tied for the highest median projection and has the highest floor projection at the position. He has produced an impressive 1.44 DraftKings points and 1.39 FanDuel points per minute on the season, significantly more than any other small forward available on this slate. If he’s back to his normal share of minutes in a closer contest, he should be set up for a good bounce-back outing after falling short of salary-based expectations in five straight games, partly due to game scripts.
On Thursday, he matches a slate-high 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Value
The Hawks have added Saddiq Bey into the starting five for each of their last two games since the injury to second-year standout Jalen Johnson (wrist). Bey is only small forward eligible on FanDuel and only power forward eligible on DraftKings, but he’s a good value play in either spot. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel and the fourth-highest at power forward on DraftKings.
Bey has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games. In those eight games, he has a 16.2% usage rate and has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points and 0.89 FanDuel points per minute. Bey looked sharp against the Cavs and should continue to get enough work with the starters to be an excellent play in this favorable game environment against the Spurs.
On DraftKings, where Bey is a power forward, Kyle Anderson (discussed below) makes the most sense in this spot.
Fast Break
While it’s a pace-down spot for the Pacers (as mentioned above), the Heat-Pacers matchup is a good opportunity for the Heat to outproduce their normal averages since the game will be more up-tempo for them against Indiana. If Jimmy Butler plays through his questionable tag, he has a very high ceiling as a result of the matchup. If Butler is out, Duncan Robinson and Jaime Jaquez Jr. will both be worth a look. Jaquez is a little cheaper on DraftKings and has been very impressive so far in his rookie season.
As mentioned above, DeMar DeRozan would be an elite play at the position if Zach LaVine (foot) is sidelined and DeRozan plays through his injury.
After missing three games, Jalen Williams returned on Tuesday. He played 34 minutes but only shot 2 of 10 from the field. He has a high ceiling against the Lakers but will be a boom-or-bust play until he re-establishes his groove.
If Brandon Miller (ankle) plays through his questionable tag, he could end up being a good play for the Hornets. He was one of the few Charlotte players who reached his salary-based expectations on Tuesday and should benefit from more usage while LaMelo Ball (ankle) is out. If Miller is out as well, Gordon Hayward and James Bouknight would have to pick up more work.
For the Timberwolves, Troy Brown Jr. is another player expected to pick up some of the slack with Edwards sidelined. He’ll be a good value play along with Matisse Thybulle, who keeps playing plenty of low-usage minutes and contributing consistent but low-scoring numbers. Georges Niang and Donte DiVincenzo can also work as punt plays at small forward on this slate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
As usual, Giannis Antetkounmpo has the highest ceiling projection of the power forwards on the slate, but with Edwards out for the Timberwolves, Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t far behind him with the second-highest median and ceiling projection on both sites. KAT is a better value play than Giannis and the other pay-up options on the slate, according to both Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal, and he should be able to flourish in this matchup and without Ant-Man.
Towns has played 127 minutes without Edwards on the floor this season and has posted a team-high 38% usage rate during that time, up 11.2 percentage points from his season average. He has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points and 1.40 FanDuel points in those minutes and should be the focus of everything the Timberwolves do on offense against the Jazz.
Utah has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing power forwards, and Towns has a +1.14 Opponents Plus/Minus on FanDuel. It should be a smash spot for Towns to step up and carry the team while hoping Edwards can get back in action either Saturday in Charlotte or next Wednesday against the Spurs.
Value
Towns’ teammate Kyle Anderson projects to be one of the best values on the slate since he also gets more work with Edwards off the floor. Anderson isn’t nearly the scoring force that KAT can be, but he does typically contribute across the board and can be a multi-category masher.
Anderson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players at all positions on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive but still brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward while ranking third on the entire slate behind Conley and Alexander-Walker (both discussed above).
On the season, Anderson has produced 0.84 DraftKings points and 0.86 FanDuel points per minute, and with Edwarsd off the floor, those numbers tick up slightly. He is projected for 15.9% usage in 30.9 minutes against the Jazz, and he brings a high ceiling with the extra work available.
Fast Break
Even with someone as good as KAT in a great spot, Giannis Antetokounmpo is always hard to fade. If the Bulls have both Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan available, they should be able to keep this game competitive enough for him to have to play his normal workload. If either or both are out, though, it could turn into a one-sided contest. Over his last six games, Giannis has only had fewer than 10 rebounds one time and only had fewer than 30 points one time. He is producing 1.59 DraftKings points and 1.57 FanDuel points per minute so far this season, and he remains an elite play that has to be considered if you can fit in his hefty salary.
Victory Wembanyama (hip) is questionable for this great spot against the Hawks. The rookie has been impressive, averaging 1.41 DraftKings points and 1.46 FanDuel points per minute in 30 minutes a game. If he is ruled out, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Zach Collins would all be very good plays while picking up his vacated usage.
Julius Randle dominated with 25 points and 20 boards against the Hornets on Tuesday and should be in a good spot to continue his strong production against the struggling Pistons. There is the potential for a blowout, but if the game stays close, Randle should put up good numbers.
In another potential blowout, Evan Mobley and the Cavs host the Trail Blazers. Mobley has been very good and very consistent this season and is coming off 17 points and 19 boards in the Cavs’ win over the Hawks on Tuesday. Mobley has eight double-doubles in his last nine games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight.
In addition to Saddiq Bey (on DraftKings), strong midrange plays include Cameron Johnson of the Nets and R.J. Barrett of the Knicks.
Anderson is by far the best cheap play on DraftKings, but Josh Hart and Aaron Nesmith project well enough to be pivotal considerations in the low $4K range. If you have to go even cheaper, Niang has the best Projected Plus/Minus of power forwards under $4K on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Christian Wood and Isaiah Hartenstein have power forward eligibility and project as the top two Projected Plus/Minus plays under $5K.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Whether Jimmy Butler returns or not, Bam Adebayo should continue to deliver for the Heat. He has the third-highest ceiling projection of all centers on both DraftKings and FanDuel, even with Butler in the projections. Bam has played a team-leading 523 minutes on the season, averaging 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.32 FanDuel points per minute.
On Tuesday without Butler, Bam had a 33.4% usage rate against the Bucks and finished with a season-high 31 points while adding 10 boards and five assists. He exceeded salary-based expectations in that contest and eight of his last 10 games overall. During that span, he has an average Plus/Minus of +10.27 FanDuel points and 7.37 DraftKings points.
The Heat have the highest pace differential on the slate, so Bam should be able to thrive in the up-tempo matchup against the Pacers. This will be his first matchup against Indiana this season, but in his most recent matchup against them last season, he smashed them for 38 points and nine rebounds while leading the Heat to a five-point win. He’ll look for similar results on Thursday night as the best stud center on the board.
Value
The Nets are getting healthy, with Cam Thomas (ankle) probable after a nine-game layoff. Nic Claxton has also been banged up, playing only eight games all season. Claxton missed Sunday’s game against the Bulls after initially being listed as probable, but he was able to return on Tuesday against the Raptors.
He looked good in that game, finishing with 15 points, eight rebounds and four blocks. He exceeded salary-based expectations in that contest and each of his last three contests. He’s cheaper on DraftKings, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating, and as a result, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/minus at the position behind only KAT. On FanDuel, he’s less of a bargain but still brings good value due to his elite defensive production when he’s at his best.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic matches the most Pro Trends of all centers on FanDuel, and he may have a huge load to carry depending on who the Bulls have available. The Bucks have been a surprisingly good matchup for opposing centers, and Vucevic could end up as an elite play.
Mobley and Jarrett Allen are both good fits here against the Trail Blazers, who have given up some massive games to opposing big men. Rudy Gobert is also worth a look since there should be extra work for him in Minnesota as well.
If Wembanyama is out, Zach Collins and even Charles Bassey would be good value plays. Bassey actually could end up with a lot of work and be an elite value, depending on how the game script plays out. Keep a close eye on the models as they shift with the breaking news.
As a midrange option, Ivica Zubac is a sneaky solid play against the Warriors. While he can fade away behind the big names in the starting lineup with him, he has outproduced salary-based expectations in three straight games. Kevon Looney is especially affordable on FanDuel and fits a similar low-profile production role.
If you have to go even cheaper than those options in the middle, Omer Yurtseven seems to have earned a spot in the Jazz rotation even when the games aren’t blowouts. Isaiah Jackson is also an interesting name to keep an eye on since he could step into a much more involved role as a backup for the Pacers with Jalen Smith (knee, heel) out for a week. Jackson has flashed in the past and will likely be the primary backup for the volatile Myles Turner.
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