The busy NBA week continues with seven games lined up for a thrilling Thursday of DFS action. Of the 14 teams taking the floor, the Bulls, Warriors and Kings are finishing up back-to-back sets, while the Timberwolves and Heat are the only teams playing on Thursday that have another game scheduled for Friday.
Injuries have already had a big impact on Thursday’s slate, and as news breaks throughout the day, things will continue to shift and change. Be sure to always refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and adjustments.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
On the entire slate, Luka Doncic has the highest ceiling and median projections. He has the highest salary on the board but has been so hot lately that he is worth considering paying up for if you can clear the salary cap space. Doncic and the Mavs host the Heat on Thursday as they try to snap a three-game skid.
While the team has lost five of their six games, Luka has been posting monster numbers. He has four straight triple-doubles with at least 30 points in each game. He scored 30+ points in each of his seven games since the All-Star Break while averaging 1.92 DraftKings points and 1.77 FanDuel points per minute in 38.1 minutes per game. His usage rate has been over 35% in each of those contests, and he continues to post spectacular numbers as the focal point of the offense, even with Kyrie Irving active and productive.
You’ll need to pair him with the right value plays on Thursday, but there’s no debating how high Luka’s ceiling is every single game. He should be set up in a good matchup against Miami, who will remain without Tyler Herro (foot), setting up Luka in a more favorable spot against Terry Rozier.
Value
One of the most impactful injuries that we know of coming into the day is the absence of Victor Wembanyama (ankle) when the Spurs visit the Kings. Without Wemby, there will be plenty of usage for the rest of the Spurs including Tre Jones, who is a good value option at point guard. Jones has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jones typically doesn’t score a lot of points but does produce in other categories. However, he has stepped up with big scoring games in the past when he has had the opportunity. He only played 21 minutes in Tuesday’s loss to the Rockets but will likely carry a bigger workload on Thursday.
Since returning to the starting lineup in early January, Jones has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points and 0.97 FanDuel points per minute in 29.3 minutes per game. With Wemby off the floor during that span, his usage increased from 15.2% to 20.5%, and his production rose to 1.13 DraftKings points and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute. He should be a solid value at his salary with those production rates on Thursday.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox and the Kings have the highest implied team total on Thursday’s slate. Fox is coming off a huge 44-point performance in Wednesday’s win over the Lakers, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games when available. He did just return from a two-game absence due to a knee injury, but as long as he’s able to play, he’ll be a strong option against the Spurs.
With Devin Booker (ankle) out, Bradley Beal will continue to carry the load for Phoenix. Beal had 31 points against the Thunder on Sunday and a nice, balanced 16-point, 6-rebound, 6-assist line against the Nuggets on Tuesday. He has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points and 0.98 FanDuel points per minute in his three games since returning from his latest injury. On the season, he has a 30.2% usage rate with Booker off the floor, an increase of over five percentage points from his season average.
Once you get past Jones on the salary structure, there aren’t many attractive bargain options at point guard. Monte Morris and Saben Lee are backups with solid Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Ben Shappard of the Pacers is an interesting punt play since he has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last six games and comes at just $3,200.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Raptors will continue to lean heavily on Immanuel Quickley with Scottie Barnes (hand), Jakob Poeltl (finger), and Bruce Brown (knee) out and Ochai Agbaji (knee) questionable. Quickley is only a point guard on DraftKings but can also slide to shooting guard on FanDuel. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on DraftKings and the second-highest ceiling projection, behind only Luka. On FanDuel, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate and the second-highest ceiling projection at both point guard and shooting guard.
Quickley has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in each of his seven games since the All-Star Break, producing 1.23 DraftKings points and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute in 35.1 minutes per game with a 22.9% usage rate. He has at least seven assists in four straight games and has scored at least 17 points in six of his last seven. For as long as he carries so much of the load for the Raptors, he’ll continue to be a good play, including this Thursday in Phoenix against the banged-up Suns.
Value
Without Wemby, Devin Vassell brings great value for the Spurs. Vassell has been a very strong fantasy option since the Spurs moved Tre Jones back into the starting lineup as a more traditional point guard. Vassell brings a very high ceiling but has also been very consistent alongside Wemby and stepping up when he’s off the floor.
Over his last 20 games, Vassell averaged 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute while leading the team in minutes and posting a 25.6% usage rate. With Wemby off the floor, his usage rate jumps to 27.3% during that 20-game span.
Vassell has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings, where he can play either point guard or shooting guard. On FanDuel, he is only a shooting guard, but he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position behind only Quickley.
Fast Break
If you need a cheaper value than Vassell, Lonnie Walker IV ranks just behind him in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Walker has posted two strong games in a row for the Nets and has scored double-digit points in four of his last six games. With Cam Thomas (ankle), Cam Johnson (ankle), and Ben Simmons (back) all out against the Pistons, Walker should have a chance to shine from his affordable salary of under $5,000.
Anthony Edwards has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel as his Timberwolves visit the up-tempo Pacers. Edwards has had a few down games lately but always has the potential to go off for a huge number, especially in a fantasy-friendly matchup like this one. He will likely have to carry more of the offense with Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) out.
Like their teammates discussed above, Gradey Dick of the Raptors and Malaki Branham of the Spurs should pick up extra usage on Thursday. They have high ceilings for players under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
When he’s been available, Jimmy Butler has put together strong numbers for the Heat, and he’ll have to carry the load with Herro out again on Thursday. Butler has the third-highest ceiling projection at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he represents much better value than the other options near the top of those projections. He has a top-six Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Butler has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in six of the seven games he has played over the past month. He has at least 20 points in five straight games and has produced 1.42 DraftKings points and 1.45 FanDuel points per minute in 34.4 minutes per game over that five-game stretch.
With Herro off the floor this season, Butler’s usage rate has jumped 2.5 percentage points to 27.7%. He has a 24.2% usage projection in 34.8 minutes in Dallas this Thursday, and if he’s near those numbers, he should once again be a great small forward to build around.
Value
Without Karl-Athony Towns (knee), Kyle Anderson will likely step into a larger role with the Timberwolves. As a result, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the highest of all small forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Anderson has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where his salary is still barely over $4,000. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, producing 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.95 FanDuel points per minute in 22.8 minutes per game. Since his minutes projection has jumped to 31.8 minutes for Thursday, he should have no trouble returning value against the Pacers. When asked to step into an expanded role, the veteran has shown the ability to stuff the stat sheet in multiple categories.
Fast Break
Leading his Celtics into a marquee matchup against the defending champs as they try to bounce back from their loss to the Cavs, Jayson Tatum is a strong pay-up option to consider as well. He has more support right now than Butler or Edwards, but he still has a very high ceiling and strong projections across the board. He has scored over 25 points in four straight games, with a pair of double-doubles against the Cavs and Sixers. Tatum brings a 71% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he would have to do more work if Jaylen Brown (pelvis) is unable to play through his questionable tag.
As a midrange target, Royce O’Neale has shown good upside since joining the Suns and should stay in a starting role while Booker is sidelined. In his 10 games with Phoenix, O’Neale has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points and 1.00 FanDuel points per minute and played 28.4 minutes per game. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of those 10 contests.
Another moving piece at the Trade Deadline that has found a nice landing spot is Simone Fontecchio, who has played well for the Pistons. He has scored 12+ points in eight of his last nine games and is an especially good cheap play on DraftKings, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating. If you need a cheap play on FanDuel, Aaron Nesmith and Julian Champagnie stand out as some of the best options under $5,000.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Early in the season, Kevin Durant had to carry the Suns while Beal and Booker were both hurt. Over the next week, he’ll have to again shoulder more of the load while Booker recovers from his sprained ankle. Durant has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections of all power forwards on DraftKings and all small forwards on FanDuel. He also ranks in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on both sites and at small forward on FanDuel.
Durant had 35 points and eight rebounds to help the Suns beat the Nuggets in Denver on Tuesday despite poor shooting from the field for most of his 44 minutes. He caught fire when he needed to, though, scoring eight points in overtime to seal the victory. He ended up taking 34 field goal attempts in that win and posting a 40.3% usage rate, indicating just how much of the workload he’ll carry while Booker is sidelined.
Value
With Poeltl out indefinitely and a brand new contract, Kelly Olynyk should be ready for a strong stretch of production for the Raptors. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel, behind only his teammate Quickley. On DraftKings, he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward and the third-highest at center.
The Canadian came home at the trade deadline and has thrived in Toronto. He has produced 1.17 DraftKings points and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute while playing 21.4 minutes per game in his 10 games with the Raptors. He made his first start with the team on Tuesday and played 28 minutes, producing 15 points, seven assists and six rebounds and exceeding salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
On FanDuel, he has the fifth-highest ceiling projection of all power forwards but a salary outside of the top 10 at the position. On DraftKings, he has the third-highest ceiling projection of all power forwards and the seventh-highest salary.
Fast Break
For the Celtics, Kristaps Porzingis is a solid option to consider whether Jaylen Brown can play or not. Porzingis has 22+ points in four straight games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three. He did miss Sunday’s rout against the Warriors with a bruised quad but was able to return and play 32 minutes on Tuesday in Cleveland.
Naz Reid will likely be called on to play a bigger role for the Wolves while Towns is sidelined. He is not quite as cheap as Anderson, but he has shown nice upside when asked to fill a larger role. Keep a close eye on how the Wolves divide up Towns’ workload.
Dorian Finney-Smith has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards under $5,000 on FanDuel, with Nesmith and Jalen Wilson close behind. On DraftKings, Anderson is by far the top value option, with Fontecchio and Wilson being strong alternatives.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Thursday’s slate is absolutely stacked at center, but the two biggest names are Nikola Jokic and Domantas Sabonis. Both have extremely high ceilings and can post outstanding numbers, but our projections favor Sabonis as the better play on this slate since he’s significantly cheaper and has very similar projections. Sabonis has a higher median and floor projection than Jokic on both DraftKings and FanDuel along with a much higher Projected Plus/Minus.
Sabonis had another huge triple-double on Wednesday against the Lakers, finishing with 16 points, 12 assists and 20 rebounds. He has posted double-doubles in 44 straight games for the Kings and four triple-doubles in his seven games since the All-Star Break. One of those triple-doubles came against the Spurs, who he’ll face again on Thursday. In that game, he had 22 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in 33 minutes.
In his 30 games in 2024, Sabonis has produced an impressive 1.55 DraftKings points and 1.43 FanDuel points per minute while playing 36.8 minutes per game. Even on the second night of a back-to-back, he should be a good play against the Spurs in a very fantasy-friendly matchup.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Zach Collins has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings. His salary on FanDuel has been adjusted up, but on DraftKings, it is still just $4,300, giving him a 98% Bargain Rating on that site.
Collins has played a reduced role while Wemby has emerged as a fantasy beast, and the rookie has been fairly durable as well, missing just two games since Jan. 1. Collins also missed one of those games but started the other in his place, producing 16 points, four rebounds, and four assists in 26 minutes against the Hornets.
On the season, Collins averages 1.04 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute, and in his last 12 games over the last month, he has produced 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute. If he starts for Wemby as expected, he should get plenty of minutes and be an outstanding value play, especially on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has posted big games in the last two contests with Booker out and should help carry the load against Olynyk and the Raptors on Thursday. He’s a nice pivot if you can’t pay up for Sabonis or Jokic, and he brings a very high ceiling at a lower salary.
Another mid-tier play with a high enough ceiling to consider as an alternative is Nic Claxton of the Nets. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games and will have to be more involved on offense due to all the team’s other injuries discussed above.
With Poeltl out, Jontay Porter has re-entered the rotation for the Raptors. He has the best Projected Plus/Minus of centers under $4,000 on FanDuel and can be a punt play if you opt to pass on all the big names at center this Thursday.
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