The NBA has five games on Thursday night’s schedule with 10 teams giving us a solid player pool for DFS contests. The Timberwolves, Knicks and Raptors will be playing for the second night in a row, while the Pacers will be the only team playing Thursday that has to worry about a game on Friday. The Pacers made a big trade with the Raptors on Wednesday, and Pascal Siakam is expected to potentially play Friday at the earliest.
As is typical at this time of the season, several key players are dealing with injuries that could impact this slate. Watch carefully for injury updates throughout the day, especially from the teams playing for the second day in a row. Be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Knicks got Jalen Brunson back on Wednesday night, and the star guard looked fully recovered from his calf contusion with 30 points in 37 minutes in a win over the Rockets. Brunson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel.
The Knicks should be in a great spot to stack on Thursday in the matchup with the best pace differential on the board and with the third-highest implied team total. They’ll take on the woeful Wizards, who rank first in the NBA in pace and second-to-last in defensive rating.
Brunson has produced 1.23 DraftKings points and 1.15 FanDuel points per minute over his last eight games while playing 36 minutes per contest with a 29.2% usage rate. He definitely carries the load and gets plenty of minutes as a workhorse for coach Tom Thibodeau, who has a reputation for giving his starters huge minutes.
Brunson has faced the Wizards twice this season and exceeded salary-based expectations in both matchups, producing 30+ points and 7+ assists in each contest. As long as he gets his normal workload, this should be another great spot to fire up the Brunson burner!
Value
The Jazz have been getting great work from Collin Sexton over their last eight games. He is in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel and also at shooting guard on DraftKings, where he has an 88% Bargain Rating. On both sites, Sexton has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and six of his last eight.
In those eight games, Sexton has averaged an impressive 1.48 DraftKings points and 1.44 FanDuel points per minute, with a 30.5% usage rate. He has 20+ points in each of his last four games and dropped 30 on the Pacers on Monday in his most recent contest.
The Jazz have won nine of their last 10 games coming into Thursday’s showdown with the Thunder, and Sexton has been a huge part of that success.
Fast Break
The Thunder are on the board, which always makes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander a strong option to consider. The superstar PG has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel and the fifth-highest on DraftKings. He has averaged a slate-high 1.57 DraftKings points and 1.58 FanDuel points per minute on the season. He has failed to reach salary-based expectations in four of his last five games but is still a strong pay-up play to consider.
De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, and the rest of the Kings have the highest implied team total on the board Thursday in their favorable matchup against the Pacers. Monk has been a boom-or-bust play off the bench with a high ceiling, and Fox is coming off back-to-back games with 30+ points. It’s also important to watch the status of Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring), who was listed as questionable for this game. He may need more time, but his availability would definitely add some extra spice to this matchup with his former team.
If you have to go cheap, Isaiah Joe has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards under $5,000 on FanDuel. Gary Trent Jr. (more below) and Kris Dunn stand out in that price range on DraftKings.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Raptors sent Siakam to the Pacers in yesterday’s trade, leaving plenty of work for recently acquired Immanuel Quickley. Quickley has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the highest at shooting guard. On FanDuel, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard.
Since joining the Raptors, Quickley has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of nine games on DraftKings and eight of those contests on FanDuel. He has produced 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute while playing 30.9 minutes per game with a 24.7% usage rate.
With Siakam off the floor, Quickley’s usage escalated to 26.5%, and he produced 1.25 DraftKings points and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute. On Wednesday after the trade, Quickley led the way for the Raptors with 17 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds in 30 minutes of a blowout win over the Heat. He should continue to get plenty of work for the rest of the season as the Raptors rebuild around their new core.
Value
For the Grizzlies, Luke Kennard has become the key piece in their offense after injuries to Ja Morant (shoulder), Desmond Bane (ankle), Derrick Rose (thigh) and Marcus Smart (finger). Kennard has point guard eligibility on DraftKings and ranks in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus at both that spot and shooting guard. On FanDuel, he has a 93% Bargain Rating with his salary still under $5,000 and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward.
Kennard missed six weeks with an injury of his own, but he has helped carry the load with five straight starts and 29+ minutes in each of his last three contests. He has scored at least 11 points in each of his last four games while chipping in 4.3 assists as well.
The Grizzlies will need him to continue to carry the load while they’re so banged up, making him a strong value option against the Timberwolves on Thursday. Kennard can be a streaky shooter, which gives him a very high ceiling in his expanded role.
Fast Break
On the other side of that Minnesota-Memphis matchup, Anthony Edwards has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards. He was questionable for Wednesday’s game but played through his injury against the Pistons to produce 27 points and eight assists while exceeding salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Keep an eye on the injury report, but he should be in a great matchup if he’s healthy enough for the second half of this back-to-back.
Bulls shooting guard Zach LaVine has a top-three ceiling projection at shooting guard along with a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has produced 1.03 DraftKings points and 0.99 FanDuel points per minute in his six games since returning from an extended layoff, with double-digit points in four straight games and at least seven assists in three of those contests.
Gary Trent Jr. is another member of the Raptors who will need to step up in the short term for the Raptors. He showed he’s capable of big games with 28 points against the Heat on Wednesday, and he has at least 12 points in four of his last five games. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of shooting guards under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
One of the reasons Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s numbers have been a little bit down the last few games is that he’s getting more help from Jalen Williams, who continues to emerge as a strong second option for the Thunder. Williams ranks in the top six in Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel and in the top seven at small forward and power forward on DraftKings. He also has a top-five ceiling projection at each of those positions and the highest at shooting guard on FanDuel.
Williams had 25 points and six assists on Monday and 25 points and seven assists on Tuesday in the Thunder’s back-to-back losses to the two teams in Los Angeles. He has at least 19 points in seven of his last eight games and has averaged an impressive 1.27 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over that span.
The Thunder have the second-highest implied team total in what should be a great matchup with the Jazz. Since SGA is so expensive, Williams is a nice pivot to save some salary and still get exposure to what should be a fun Western Conference matchup in Salt Lake City.
Value
Another player boosted by the ripple effects of the Siakam trade is R.J. Barrett, who has also been a strong contributor for the Raptors since coming over from the Knicks. He should be a good play against the Bulls on Thursday with the added workload. Barrett has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, where he has a 68% Bargain Rating.
Barrett has scored at least 23 points in five of his last six games and produced 1.17 DraftKings points and 1.14 FanDuel points per minute over that span. Without Siakam on the floor, Barrett has seen a 2.7 percentage point increase in usage over that six-game span and produced 1.21 DraftKings points and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute with a 26.2% usage rate.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan has the second-highest ceiling projection at small forward on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. He’ll be looking to bounce back from an uncharacteristically quiet six-point game on Monday. He should get an added boost from returning to Toronto, where he played for his first nine seasons in the NBA.
For the short-handed Grizzlies, Vince Williams Jr. has been one of the few bright spots. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games, producing 1.01 DraftKings points and 1.00 FanDuel points per minute while logging 33.2 minutes per game. With so much opportunity available, he should continue to be worth his midrange salary.
From under $5K, Kennard is joined by Jaden McDaniels and Harrison Barnes as strong options on FanDuel, while on DraftKings, Josh Hart, Kris Dunn, and Simone Fontecchio bring the best Projected Plus/Minus.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Since the Knicks are in such a good spot in their matchup with the Wizards, Julius Randle has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. On both sites, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward.
Randle has been on a rampage, producing 1.31 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points while playing 35.8 minutes per game over his last 10 contests. Randle exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his two games against Washington this season, including a 39-point, seven-rebound performance in their meeting earlier this month.
Stacking Randle and Brunson in this matchup is definitely a strategy to consider, with the possibility of a blowout being the only drawback to building around the Knicks’ top two offensive options.
Value
A new option emerging in Memphis over the last few games has been GG Jackson II. Jackson has been priced up to $6,400 on FanDuel but is still just $4,000 on DraftKings, where he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards and a 99% Bargain Rating.
A two-way player who has spent most of the season in the G League, Jackson had 20 points in 27 minutes off the bench for Memphis last Saturday and followed up those career highs with 23 points in 29 minutes on Monday. Jackson is only 19, so the second-round pick could develop into a good rotation piece going forward, although his long-term spot in the rotation is uncertain.
With more work expected to come his way due to all the Grizzlies injuries in the short term, Jackson is an outstanding value on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Since FanDuel has priced Jackson out of the value conversation, Deni Avdija is a solid play to consider. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards with a salary under $7,000 on FanDue and has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last nine games, including a 23-point, 10-rebound double-double against the Knicks, who he faces again Thursday.
Thaddeus Young is also a good value play at power forward on FanDue and at center on DraftKings. He is helping the Raptors fill the frontcourt with Jakob Poeltl (ankle) injured and Pascal Siakam traded. The veteran had five points and eight rebounds in 28 minutes on Wednesday.
Although he remains boom or bust, Keegan Murray has a high ceiling in the Kings’ up-tempo matchup with the Pacers. Murray has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games by producing 1.01 DraftKings points and 0.98 FanDuel points per game while averaging 32.8 minutes per contest and a 20.0% usage rate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Former Pacer Domantas Sabonis has the second-highest median and ceiling projection on the entire slate, behind only SGA. Sabonis is also in the top seven in Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Sabonis has posted an amazing 23 straight double-doubles dating all the way back to the beginning of December. He also has 10 triple-doubles during that span, including each of his last two games against the Bucks and Suns. On the season, he has produced 1.46 DraftKings points and 1.37 FanDuel points per minute, but over his last 10 games, those numbers spiked to 1.60 DraftKings points and 1.46 FanDuel points per minute.
In such a fantasy-friendly environment, Sabonis is a great option to build around on Thursday. The Kings have dropped three straight, so they’ll be relying on Sabonis to get them turned back around and on the right track as they return home from a five-game road trip.
Value
While he doesn’t put up as many points as his teammates discussed above, Isaiah Hartenstein is still a very strong producer in fantasy due to his non-scoring contributions in his expanded role for the Knicks. Hartenstein has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel and the second-highest at the position on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating.
Hartenstein has exceeded salary-based expectations on both sites in eight of his last 10 games by producing 1.08 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute. The reason he is still a strong option with those rates is that he has averaged over 35 minutes per game.
He had 19 rebounds in 39 minutes against the Wizards earlier this month, and he should dominate down low again on Thursday, especially with Daniel Gafford (concussion) ruled out for Washington.
Fast Break
Jaren Jackson Jr. has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both power forward and center on FanDuel. While he isn’t usually the primary scorer for Memphis, he has had to help pick up the slack with all the injuries. He has a very high ceiling but has had mixed results without the other key members of the rotation.
With the Raptors short-handed in the frontcourt, Nikola Vucevic could be in a smash spot. He showed his upside with a monster 24-point, 16-rebound game on Saturday in San Antonio. Vouch posted another double-double against the Cavs on Monday and has four double-doubles in his last five games. He seems to be past the groin injury that sidelined him around the holidays.
If you have to go cheap at center, Thaddeus Young stands out on DraftKings at just $3,900. On FanDuel, Jontay Porter could be a good play under $5,000 along with former Raptor Precious Achiuwa, especially if he gets extra run in a Knicks blowout.
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