Celebrate Leap Day this Thursday with an extra day of even more NBA DFS action! Since Wednesday night was a little lighter than normal, Thursday has a strong eight-game schedule. The first six of those games make up the main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, leaving off the games in Denver and Los Angeles. Of the 12 teams on the main slate, none are on the second game of a back-to-back, but the Hornets, Warriors, Bucks, and Wizards will be on a quick turn to play again on Friday.
As always, at this point in the season, monitoring the latest injury news throughout the day is extremely important. As updates are released, be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and adjustments.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all players on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has one of the highest salaries on the board as well, but his high ceiling means he still brings good value. He ranks second on the entire slate in Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and fourth on DraftKings. On both sites, his Projected Plus/Minus is the best of all point guards.
SGA had 31 points on Tuesday in a comfortable win over the Rockets and has produced 30+ points in six straight games around the All-Star Break. He exceeded even his lofty salary-based expectations in four of those six games and produced 1.60 DraftKings points and 1.61 FanDuel points per minute.
He has proven to be virtually matchup-proof at this point, but he’ll be in a very favorable situation as the Thunder visit the Spurs on Thursday. Oklahoma City has the highest implied team total on the main slate, and SGA should remain at the center of all their offensive production.
Value
The Rockets visit the Suns in the game with the second-highest over/under on the main slate, and in that contest, Jalen Green has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on DraftKings and the third-highest at the position on FanDuel. Green’s salary is only around $6,000 on both sites, but he brings a much higher ceiling than that price implies due to his heavy usage.
Green has a 27.5% usage rate on the season but has been over that mark in seven of his last nine games and three of his four games since the All-Star Break. He has scored double-digit points in each of those four games since the break but has yet to crack 20 points. His salary has been sliding as a result, though, and this seems like a good play to “buy the dip” and look for a bounceback showing from the 22-year-old.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard has had 20+ points, 7+ rebounds, and 7+ assists in each of his three games since the All-Star Break and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those three contests. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel, where he brings an 86% Bargain Rating.
On the other side of that Bucks-Hornets matchup, Cody Martin is in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Martin has stepped up for the Hornets with LaMelo Ball out and has produced 0.87 DraftKings points and 0.89 FanDuel points per minute in 28.5 minutes per game over his last six contests. That production level is strong enough to make him a solid value at his salary of around $5,000.
If you have to go even cheaper at point guard, Vasilije Micic of the Hornets and Patrick Beverley in his new backup role with the Bucks stand out as two of the best bargain options.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Although the Spurs continue to stack up losses, there are a few players for San Antonio that have been strong fantasy options. While he’s not the biggest name on the team (more on that below), Devin Vassell has been excellent over the last month and has the second-highest median and floor projection at shooting guard on DraftKings. On FanDuel, there are a few more options, but he still ranks in the top four in both median and floor projection at the position. He also matches 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 10 on DraftKings, which ties him for the most of any shooting guard.
In the last month, Vassell has produced 1.12 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute, with a 26.7% usage rate in 34 minutes per game. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his 13 games during that stretch and has scored 20+ points in three of his four games since the All-Star Break.
Value
Without Trae Young (finger), the Hawks moved Bogdan Bogdanovic into the starting lineup. His salary has bumped up a little, but he still brings good value in his expanded role. He has the seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and shooting guard on DraftKings and ranks in the top eight in Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel.
Bogdanovic has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games overall, with 12+ points and multiple three-pointers in each contest. He scored 19 points in 33 minutes in his start on Tuesday against the Jazz, and he will be set up for continued success as long as he’s in a starting role.
Fast Break
Dejounte Murray has shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel and has also stepped into expanded usage without Trae Young. His salary has risen so that he isn’t as much of a value play anymore, but he still brings a very high ceiling after posting back-to-back double-doubles as the Hawks’ primary creator.
As a midrange option on the salary structure, Jalen Suggs has been very productive for the Magic. He ranks in the top eight at shooting guard in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the last month, he has averaged 27.3 minutes per game while producing 0.89 DraftKings points and 0.89 FanDuel points per minute.
Moses Moody started for the Warriors in place of Andrew Wiggins (personal) on Tuesday and exceeded salary-based expectations with 12 points in 23 minutes. His salary is still under $4,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him a very interesting bargain option if he’s in the lineup again.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
At the trade deadline, the Knicks got more help so that Donte DiVincenzo hasn’t had to shoulder quite as much of the workload alongside Jalen Brunson. DiVincenzo’s salary has dropped a little bit as a result, and he’s a very viable play with good upside on Thursday as he faces his former team, the Warriors. DiVincenzo ranks in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus at small forward and shooting guard on FanDuel, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating.
In each of his last three games, DiVincenzo has scored over 20 points while chipping in at least two rebounds, two assists, and two steals to finish just above salary-based expectations. Over the last month, he averaged 1.05 DraftKings points and 1.01 FanDuel points per minute while playing a heavy workload of 38.1 minutes per game with 25% usage.
On Tuesday, he played 37 minutes on the second night of a back-to-back, showing that his hamstring injury from before the break is no longer a limitation.
Value
Dillon Brooks has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on Thursday night’s slate on DraftKings and the highest of all small forwards with salaries under $5,000 on FanDuel. Brooks has been relatively quiet since the All-Star Break but tends to rise to marquee matchups like this one against the Suns.
Brooks showed a good ceiling before the All-Star Break with 19+ points in four of five games, highlighted by a double-double against his former team, the Grizzlies. He’s still getting the same minutes as during that run, but his usage has dropped a bit with the return of Fred VanVleet to run the point. Even with slightly lower usage, our projections have him as a great salary-saver this Thursday. He has a 16.5% usage projection in his projection of 32 minutes.
Fast Break
In a second straight matchup with the Bucks, Miles Bridges has the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. Bridges has had to carry the load for the Hornets and has a 26.3% usage rate over the last month while averaging 1.14 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute in a heavy load of 37.6 minutes per game.
The Magic have been getting solid play from Franz Wagner coming out of the break, while Paolo Banchero (illness, questionable) has been sidelined or limited. Wagner gets an increase to a team-high 28.2% usage rate with Banchero off the floor this season and has produced 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute in that situation. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of all small forwards on DraftKings.
Aside from Brooks, there aren’t many options for value at small forward. Dorian Finney-Smith and Jae Crowder are low-usage veterans getting enough minutes to be decent punt plays on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Lonnie Walker and Julian Champagnie are solid plays under $4,000 if you are going cheap at small forward to stack stars in other spots.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Bucks have looked better coming out of the All-Star Break with three straight wins. They’ll face the Hornets for a second straight game on Thursday, and Giannis Antetkoumpo is right near the top of all the projections once again. He has the second-highest floor, median, or ceiling projection on the entire slate, behind only SGA.
He only had to play 24 minutes against the Hornets on Tuesday but still had 24 points and eight rebounds. Before that, he had two 30-point double-doubles coming out of the break, falling just one assist short of a triple-double in last Sunday’s win in Philadelphia.
Coming into this matchup, he again has a probable tag due to knee soreness, but if he gets his normal workload, he should be able to put up big numbers. He hasn’t missed a game since Jan. 17 and has averaged an impressive 1.71 DraftKings points and 1.65 FanDuel points per minute while playing 34.3 minutes per game since sitting out that game in Cleveland.
Value
In the Thunder’s favorable matchup with the Spurs, Jalen Williams has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on DraftKings. He’s eligible at shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel, where he has the highest and second-highest Projeted Plus/Minus at those positions, respectively.
Williams has become a strong secondary option for the Thunder over the past two months. In his 28 games since Christmas, Williams produced 1.18 DraftKings points and 1.17 FanDuel points per minute, with 24.3% usage in 31.9 minutes per game. He has dropped 20+ points in four of his last six contests and exceeded salary-based expectations in five of those six contests on DraftKings. His position may be a little fluid, but his production has been consistently excellent.
Fast Break
On FanDuel, Kevin Durant offers additional small forward eligibility and also has an 86% Bargain Rating. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both forward spots on FanDuel but ranks lower on DraftKings, where he’s relatively more expensive. He always brings a very high ceiling but is getting more help from the rest of the Suns’ roster, which could get an additional boost with Bradley Beal (hamstring) possibly returning.
In the mid-tier, Cameron Johnson shows very well in our projections. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He’s in a favorable matchup against the Hawks and could get another start for the ailing Cam Thomas (ankle), who will miss a second straight game. Johnson started and had 12 points in 29 minutes on Tuesday, which is a significant boost from the 21.3 minutes he was averaging coming off the bench in the previous four games.
Since the trade deadline, the Jazz have begun their youth movement in earnest. Top-10 pick Taylor Hendricks has joined the rotation and played 15+ minutes in seven straight games. In each of his last three, he started and played over 25 minutes. In those three games, he has averaged 21.7 DraftKings points and 21.7 FanDuel points in 27.5 minutes per game. That production is strong enough to make him one of the top bargain power forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel as the Jazz face the Magic on Thursday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The Thunder-Spurs matchup is highlighted by the matchup of the elite rookie centers–Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren. Holmgren is cheaper and a strong value, but he can’t touch the ceiling that Webanyama brings since he gets so much more regular usage and puts up ridiculous defensive numbers. Wemby has the highest median, ceiling and floor projection at center on FanDuel and is only behind Giannis at the position in those categories on DraftKings.
Wembanyama got so much hype leading up to the draft that it seemed impossible for him to live up to the billing. However, he has been spectacular over his last six games, showing his limitless upside and his ability to match the hype. In that small sample size, Wemby has produced 2.06 DraftKings points and 2.16 FanDuel points per minute while playing 29.8 minutes per game. He has five double-doubles during that stretch, falling just one rebound short in his other game and adding at least four blocks in each of his last four games.
In his personal showdown with Chet, he should be motivated to pot another amazing number, so pay up for him if you can on Thursday.
Value
Even though Wembanyama has a higher ceiling and ridiculous production rates, Holmgren has the better Projected Plus/Minus. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel and the third-highest of all players on DraftKings.
While his numbers haven’t been as jaw-dropping as Wemby’s, he has been playing huge minutes for a team with a much better record and putting up consistent production. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his four games since the All-Star Break and in eight of his last nine overall, producing 1.39 DraftKings points and 1.42 FanDuel points per minute in 30.9 minutes per game over that span.
Fast Break
If both young centers are too expensive for your budget this Thursday, Jusuf Nurkic is a solid alternative. Nurkic has a higher Projected Plus/Minus than both young big men on DraftKings, where he has a 79% Bargain Rating and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on the slate. He’s coming off a huge 18-point, 22-rebound performance against the Lakers last Sunday and can stuff the box score in multiple categories when at his best.
If you want to pivot from the spotlighted matchup and get some leverage, Alperen Sengun brings a high ceiling for the Rockets. He’s an especially strong play on FanDuel, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating and offers 91% Leverage along with the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. Sengun has posted three straight double-doubles and is coming off a big game of over 50 DraftKings points and 50 FanDuel points against Chet and the Thunder.
Clint Capela and Burno Fernando are good value plays at center as well since Onyeka Okongwu (toe) will be sidelined for multiple weeks along with Trae Young. Fernando is very affordable on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he ranks in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on both sites.
