The NBA has just six weeks left in the regular season, and this week begins with a nice six-game schedule Monday night. DraftKings included all six games on its main slate while FanDuel chose to omit the two late games and go with a four-game main slate. This week’s schedule is well-balanced from night to night with no fewer than six games on any night and no more than nine. Of the 12 teams in action, the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves are each on the second night of back-to-back games while the Nets are the only team on the floor Monday that is scheduled to play again on Tuesday.
At this point in the season, monitoring the latest injury news throughout the day is extremely important. As updates are released, be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest updates and adjustments.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
On FanDuel, Damian Lillard has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all points guards, and on DraftKings, he’s second behind only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who plays in the late game against the Lakers. Lillard and the Bucks host the Clippers, and since he’s $2,000 cheaper than SGA on DraftKings, he has slightly better value projections.
Lillard has helped the Bucks pick up five straight wins coming out of the All-Star Break, averaging 1.27 DraftKings points and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute. He could be set for even more work on Monday since Giannis Antetkounmpo (Achilles) is questionable. If Giannis is out, Lillard would be a must-play option since he would have such a huge workload. With Giannis off the floor this season, Dame has produced 1.42 DraftKings points and 1.40 FanDuel points per minute. In that situation, his usage rate jumps to 36.8% from his season average of 28.4%.
Lillard is a strong stud to build around regardless of Giannis’s status, and he has an extremely high ceiling if Giannis has to sit out this big matchup against coach Doc Rivers’ former squad.
Value
On both DraftKings and Fanduel’s slate, the best place to shop for value is in the matchup between the Jazz and the Wizards. It has the highest over/under of any game on the schedule, and the Jazz have the highest implied team total of the night. One great guard to consider is rookie Keyonte George, who is getting plenty of usage and playing time as a key part of Utah’s youth movement.
On Monday, George has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, where he has a 74% Bargain Rating. He gets a great matchup against the Wizards, and in an up-tempo matchup, he should be able to dominate.
George has shown a high ceiling since joining the starting lineup just before the All-Star Break. He has two games with over 30 points and double-digit points in six of his last seven. Over those seven games, he led the team with 34.6 minutes per game and produced 1.0 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute. He exceeded salary-based expectations in five of those seven games on DraftKings and is coming off a 31-point game against the Heat on Saturday.
Fast Break
For pure upside and a very reliable ceiling, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is worth considering paying up for on DraftKings. He and the Thunder dispatched the Suns on Sunday night, and SGA had a massive stat line of 35 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds. He is in a good spot against the Lakers and has scored at least 30 points in eight straight games dating back to before the break.
On the other side of that matchup (which is only on DraftKings), Austin Reaves is coming off a big double-double of 19 points and 14 assists in the Lakers’ loss to Denver on Saturday. Reaves has scored double-digit points in 10 straight games, producing 1.02 DraftKings points and 0.99 FanDuel points per minute in 34.1 minutes per game. The Lakers need him to help carry the load if they want to make any kind of late-season push, and the matchup and game environment against the Thunder should be favorable.
If you have to go cheaper at point guard, Jordan Goodwin has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards with salaries under $6,000 on FanDuel and the second-highest of point guards in that price range on DraftKings. Goodwin has started each of his last four games for the Grizz and has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in each of those four games, averaging 0.92 DraftKings points and 0.98 FanDuel points per minute in 31 minutes per game.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Collin Sexton has the highest ceiling projection and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He will have to help carry the load against the Wizards with Lauri Markkanen (quad) ruled out, and should be poised for a big game along with George in the backcourt.
On the season, Sexton averages 1.06 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute with Markkanen off the floor, but over his last seven games, he has produced 1.19 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario. He has scored over 15 points in nine straight games, highlighted by a ceiling game of 35 points and nine assists against the Warriors just before the All-Star Break. He and George have gelled well in the backcourt, and you can build around the tandem on Monday with more work expected to come their way in this favorable matchup.
Value
On DraftKings, the best non-Jazz value at shooting guard is Ayo Dosunmu of the Bulls. Dosunmu has stepped into a much larger role since Chicago’s injuries have continued to mount. The former defensive specialist has added more depth to his game and brings the potential to stuff the box score on any given night. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and shooting guard on DraftKings, but his matchup isn’t on FanDuel’s slate.
Dosunmu has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in each of his five games since the break and in seven of his last eight overall. He has played 39.3 minutes per game over that stretch with an 18.2% usage rate and a production rate of 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. With so much playing time, he has been able to fill multiple categories on the box score and show off his much-improved shooting.
Fast Break
Without the Bulls on the slate, the value plays at shooting guard are limited on FanDuel. Talen Horton-Tucker is expected to get enough playing time without Markkanen to be a good value. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. His minutes have been limited lately, but he has shown in the past that he can produce when given the chance to step up.
Anfernee Simons has an 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where his salary is still under $8,000. He has been boom-or-bust lately, but he had an impressive ceiling game with 30 points against the Grizzlies on Saturday with seven assists and seven rebounds. With Jerami Grant (quad) doubtful and Deandre Ayton (hand) questionable, there should be plenty of work for Simons to do against the Timberwolves. If the game stays competitive, Simons should have high usage and a high ceiling.
As a midrange play, Malik Monk stands out as a great option on DraftKings, especially if De’Aaron Fox (knee) misses a third straight game. On FanDuel, Norman Powell is a solid play at just over $5,000 and has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games after a 24-point performance in Sunday’s big win in Minnesota.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
On the other side of that Wizards-Jazz game in Utah, Deni Avdija is set to be a strong play. He has a top-six ceiling projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On FanDuel, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards, and he also ranks in the top three in that category at the position on DraftKings.
Over the past month, Avdija has battled a heel injury but has been productive when available. He exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, averaging 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.06 FanDuel points per minute in 35.9 minutes per game. He had 15 points and 15 rebounds in his return to action last Thursday against the Lakers and also showed his upside with a 43-point, 15-rebound game against the Pelicans just before the break.
Avdija is a great way to get a high ceiling at a mid-range price in what should be a good matchup for him against the Jazz. His absence from the injury report should indicate he’s ready for a full workload in Utah.
Value
The Jazz will get a chance to play rookie Brice Sensabaugh big minutes with Markkanen sidelined. The rookie from Ohio State has carved out a spot in the rotation since the Kelly Olynyk trade but has played under 20 minutes a game. He has a 19.6% usage rate in his last seven games with Markkanen on the floor and a 29.1% usage rate in that stretch with Markkanen off the floor.
While he hasn’t put up big numbers yet, his salary is extremely low at $3,500 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings. He won’t have to do much to return elite value at that price point. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, behind only Avdija. His salary is so low that it enables you to stack superstars in other spots while still getting plenty of usage and upside.
Fast Break
What LeBron James has done scoring 40,000 points in his career is truly remarkable, and what he’s still doing now at the age of 39 is probably even more impressive. The King is the oldest player in the NBA but continues to put up huge numbers. He’s only available on Monday on DraftKings, but he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all small forwards on that site. James has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games and seven of his last eight while scoring over 20 points with at least eight assists in each of those eight games.
Anthony Edwards has the highest ceiling, median and floor projections at small forward on FanDuel, just edging out Kawhi Leonard, whose salary is actually a little higher. Edwards and the Wolves will look to bounce back from back-to-back tough losses at home to the Kings and Clippers, but they have a good spot to do so in a soft matchup against the short-handed Blazers.
The Blazers will offer strong value options at forward with Grant likely sidelined. Kris Murray has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of small forwards with salaries under $5,000 on FanDuel, followed closely by Matisse Thybulle. On DraftKings, Thybulle is a better value since he has an 88% Bargain Rating and ranks in the top six in projected Plus/Minus at the position. Also, on DraftKings, you can consider Horton-Tucker at small forward since he brings extra eligibility and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind only his teammate Sensabaugh.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
If Giannis Antetkounmpo plays through his injury, he has the highest median and ceiling projections on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has a 71% Bargain Rating and extra center eligibility on DraftKings but is a strong option on either site if he’s ready for a full workload.
On Friday against the Bulls, Giannis went off for 46 points and 16 rebounds to far exceed salary-based expectations. It was the fifth straight win for the Bucks and a nice bounce-back game for Giannis after playing fewer minutes in blowout wins over the Hornets. In his last eight games, Giannis has posted 1.72 DraftKings points and 1.65 FanDuel points per minute while playing 34 minutes a game.
If he’s healthy enough to give it a go on Monday against the Clippers, he brings unmatched upside on this slate. He’s a pricey play to build around, but with so much value available, he’s a top option to consider with all your savings from other spots.
Value
Without Grant, Toumani Camara should be a great forward option for the Blazers. He ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at both small forward and power forward on FanDuel, where he has a 79% Bargain Rating. He is actually a little cheaper on DraftKings with a salary of just $5,000 and is a strong midrange play on both sites.
Camara has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in seven of his 10 games over the last month. He has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points and 0.79 FanDuel points per minute over that span while playing 25.1 minutes per game. Over that stretch, Camara has seen an increase of 3.5 percentage points to his usage rate with Grant off the floor.
The 23-year-old Belgian rookie has started each of the last seven games for Portland and should get enough work to be a good value against the Timberwolves on Monday.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan continues to carry the load for the Bulls and is a good option on DraftKings. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at small forward and the third-highest at power forward while bringing a top-eight Projected Plus/Minus at both positions as well. With his ability to produce in multiple categories, he has both a high ceiling and a high floor against the Kings.
The Jazz offer more good value options at power forward, with John Collins and Taylor Hendricks both putting up good numbers lately. Collins has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He should step into a more active scoring role without Markkanen in the mix. Both options will also get more minutes and usage at center with Walker Kessler (foot) out.
In the Bucks’ second unit, Bobby Portis has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and could be in for more work if Giannis is limited or out against the Clippers. In his last four games, Portis produced 15.8 points and 8.0 rebounds for 1.47 DraftKings points and 1.48 FanDuel points per minute.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Kyle Kuzma has been putting up great numbers for the Wizards lately. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of their six games since the All-Star Break, averaging 1.34 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute in 33.3 minutes per game.
On DraftKings, Kuzma brings center eligibility and provides the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position by a wide margin. He also brings the fourth-highest ceiling projection at center. At power forward, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel, where he can also slide over to small forward. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of small forwards on FanDuel and really makes sense wherever he can fit into your lineup.
In his matchup with the Jazz, Kuz matches a slate-high 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he also has a 93% Bargain Rating. On FanDuel, he matches 10 Pro Trends, more than any other player on the four-game slate.
Value
With Deandre Ayton sidelined, Jabari Walker had back-to-back massive games against the Grizzlies that far exceeded salary-based expectations. He had 19 points and 10 boards on Friday and followed that up with 18 points and 12 boards on Saturday.
Walker and Duop Reath are both strong options if Ayton is out again, but Walker could also help fill in for Grant at power forward. In the last seven games Grant has missed, Walker averaged 0.80 DraftKings points and 0.78 FanDuel points per game in 25.3 minutes per contest. His projected minutes are just under 30 on Monday, and if he gets that much work, he should be a strong option against Minnesota.
Fast Break
On DraftKings, Domantas Sabonis is a great pay-up option against the Bulls. He has posted an astounding 42 straight double-doubles and leads the league with 21 triple-doubles. He had one of those triple-doubles in his first meeting this season with the Bulls and could get more work depending on if De’Aaron Fox misses a third straight game.
Nikola Vucevic is also a strong option on DraftKings on the other side of that late matchup. The Bulls’ center has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 12 games on DraftKings with an average Plus/Minus of +5.9 DraftKings points. He has seven double-doubles in his last nine games while posting a 27.1% usage rate in 37.1 minutes per game.
If you have to go cheap at center, Omer Yertseven should be in the frontcourt mix as a cheap option for the Jazz. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers with salaries under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is available for a bargain rate under $4,000 on both sites.
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