On Monday, the NBA has 10 games spread throughout the day to celebrate the life and legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. The five games that tip off in the evening make up the main DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Of the 10 teams in the player pool, the Pacers and the Heat are playing for the second day in a row, while the Thunder and 76ers are on the front half of their back-to-back, which will wrap up on Tuesday.
Multiple key players are dealing with injuries, so there are still lots of unknowns on the slate. Be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Monday night’s finale is a fun matchup between the rising Thunder and the struggling Lakers in Los Angeles. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is officially questionable for the game, but if he plays, he’ll be in a great spot. SGA has the highest median, floor, and ceiling projections on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He also has a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where his salary is barely over $10,000.
SGA has played in 37 of the Thunder’s 38 games this season, averaging an elite 1.60 DraftKings points and 1.62 FanDuel points per minute. He has been virtually right at that rate over his last 15 games as well, carrying a 32.8% usage rate and averaging 33.8 minutes per game.
As long as he’s cleared to play on Monday night, he should be one of the best star plays to build around. His uncertain status could keep his ownership down as well, but just be sure to have a “plan B” for your lineup if more clarity doesn’t come before tip-off of the first games on the slate at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Value
The Heat are banged up and on the second night of a back-to-back, so they should be a good matchup for the Nets in their first game stateside after their trip to Paris. Brooklyn has been getting good play from Dennis Smith Jr. lately, who is still priced under $5,000 on DraftKings. DSJ has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel.
Spencer Dinwiddie has struggled at times this season, and Smith has stepped up with strong games off the bench. He had a pair of double-doubles and vastly exceeded salary-based expectations in his last two games before the France trip. In Paris, he only managed two points in 23 minutes but did hand out five assists. He has at least four assists in each of his last five games and is starting to push for a bigger role.
There is added risk since his role isn’t as certain, but he’s given the Nets’ second unit a nice spark lately. He projects to be a strong value play this Monday.
Fast Break
The Raptors took an ugly loss to the Jazz on Friday, and Immanuel Quickley lost his streak of six straight games exceeding salary-based expectations. He has been excellent since being traded to Toronto, averaging 1.14 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute in his seven games with the team and playing 32.4 minutes per contest. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings.
With Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) still sidelined, Andrew Nembhard should continue to start for the Pacers. He has at least five assists in each of his three starts and scored double-digit points in each of his last two games. In what is expected to be a high-scoring contest against the Jazz (more below), Nembhard has a high ceiling in his expanded role. With Haliburton off the floor, he has produced 0.98 DraftKings points and 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season.
With SGA ailing, the best bargain options at point guard are Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace, who could get extra time against the Lakers. They will be excellent plays if Gilgeous-Alexander is ruled out, but they could also get more minutes if SGA plays limited minutes or defers a little more than usual.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
In the Cavs’ return from Paris, Donovan Mitchell has the highest floor, ceiling, and median projections at shooting guard on this slate by a wide margin on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s an expensive pay-up play, but he is carrying the Cleveland offense right now and has a high upside as a result.
In five of his last six games since returning from illness, Spida has a usage rate over 30%. In the Cavs’ win on Thursday, he had a 45.1% usage rate while piling up 45 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists to lead Cleveland to the international win. He should be well-rested after just that one game last week, and as a result, he should carry the load in this matchup with the Bulls.
Mitchell has a 32.5% usage projection in 35.8 projected minutes. If he’s near those numbers, he should end up being a good value since he has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.39 FanDuel points per minute with Darius Garland (jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee) off the floor this season.
Value
The matchup with the highest over/under on the slate by a significant margin is the matchup between the Jazz and Pacers in Utah. Bennedict Mathurin has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel and the fourth-highest at small forward. He has a 96% Bargain Rating on that site since his salary has risen more on DraftKings while he has stepped into a bigger role in Haliburton’s absence.
On the season, Mathurin gets a boost of 3.3 percentage points to a team-high 26.6% usage rate with Haliburton off the floor. He has produced 1.0 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario.
He comes into this favorable spot with at least 12 points in 10 straight games, including four games of at least 20 points. For as long as Haliburton is out, his additional opportunities make him a strong value option on the wing.
Fast Break
On the flip side of that Pacers-Jazz contest, both Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton come with good upside for the Jazz. Sexton has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, including each of his last three games. He scored 20+ points in each of those three contests. Clarkson has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings.
In Paris, Mikal Bridges had 26 points to go with six rebounds after dropping 42 points against the Trail Blazers in his most recent game stateside. He has a top-five ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel at shooting guard. He isn’t an elite value at his elevated salary, but he does bring an undeniably high ceiling.
Sam Merrill has emerged as a meaningful contributor for the Cavs, and he’s an especially great value on FanDuel, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating. He could get even more work if Max Strus (knee, questionable) is out. Merrill has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine on FanDuel and six of his last eight on DraftKings.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Whenever the Jazz are in a favorable spot, Lauri Markkanen stands out since he remains their go-to option. He has a 25.1% usage rate on the season and has produced a team-high 1.30 DraftKings points and 1.25 FanDuel points per minute. While he missed some time just over a month ago, he has shown he’s back as a top option with 1.46 DraftKings points and 1.40 FanDuel points per minute over his last seven games.
He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He’s also tied for the most Pts/Sal on the entire slate on DraftKings and comes in second on FanDuel.
Markkanen fell just one rebound short of a double-double in each of his last two games and has scored over 20 points in five straight. With an up-tempo game at home, look for him to post another big number against the Pacers on Monday.
Value
While he isn’t exactly cheap, Jalen Williams is a great option to consider alongside SGA, and he would quickly become a “must-play” if Gilgeous-Alexander is ruled out. Williams has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the sixth-highest on FanDuel. He has a 92% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and can slide to power forward as well. On FanDuel, Williams has shooting guard and small forward eligibility.
Over the last month, Williams has firmly established himself as a key part of the Thunder’s young core. He has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute over his last 12 games while playing 31.2 minutes per game. SGA has played in all those games, but Williams still has a 23.3% usage rate, which is second-highest on the team. Williams exceeded salary-based expectations in 12 of his last 15 games on FanDuel and eight of his last 13 on DraftKings.
He gets even more work when SGA is off the floor this season. In that situation, he has a 28.3% usage rate and has produced 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute. Regardless of SGA’s ultimate availability, Williams is worth considering Monday vs. the Lakers.
Fast Break
R.J. Barrett had a rough game with just four points against the Jazz on Friday, but before that, he had three straight games with 23+ points. He exceeded salary-based expectations in all three of those games, and he has a high ceiling as the Raps return to Toronto on Monday. Barrett has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings.
Of all small forwards under $6,000, Cameron Johnson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s just over $6,000 on DraftKings but still brings good bounce-back potential after a down game in France. Before his international trip, Johnson had exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in six of his last eight games.
Bruce Brown is coming off a strong showing in Denver after getting his Championship Ring. He had 18 points, 10 boards, and six assists in 33 minutes. With Haliburton out, he should help carry the load if he’s past his own knee issue. Brown sees a 4.2 percent increase in usage with Hali off the floor this season and has produced 0.98 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute in that situation.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
In his trip to Toronto, Jayson Tatum has the third-highest ceiling and median projection on the entire slate. He could be an even better play with more usage if Jaylen Brown (knee, questionable) is forced to sit. Tatum has been playing through an ankle injury of his own but has been very productive, averaging 1.41 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points over his last 14 games. With Brown off the floor during that span, his production spikes to 1.48 DraftKings points and 1.43 FanDuel points per minute.
Tatum and the Celtics have the second-highest implied team total on the board this Monday night, behind only the Jazz. They beat the Raptors twice in November before their recent trade. It’ll be a new-look Raptors, which should lead to a more up-tempo flow for the Celtics. Tatum always has a high ceiling, and he’s a strong option to build around on Monday since there are injury question marks around so many other options.
Value
Going back to the great game environment in Utah, John Collins has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of power forwards on DraftKings and is also in the top 10 at the position on FanDuel. He also has center eligibility on both sites and ranks in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus there as well.
Collins got off to a strong start to the season with the Jazz but missed four games in mid-December. He returned in a slightly reduced role but has reclaimed his regular minutes lately. He has scored double-digit points in eight of his last nine games, producing 1.18 DraftKings points and 1.13 FanDuel points per minute.
On Saturday, Collins had an impressive 19-point, 13-rebound performance against the Lakers and exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the sixth time in his last seven games. Building around a frontcourt stack of Collins and Markkanen is a strong option Monday in their up-tempo matchup with Indiana.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan has seen his usage decrease a little with Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic returning to the rotation, but he still brings a very good ceiling from his salary under $8,000. He is only a power forward on DraftKings and only a small forward on FanDuel, but he projects to be a solid option in either spot against the short-handed Cavs.
The Heat injury report will be a key one to watch for on Monday. Nikola Jovic could end up with big minutes since Jaime Jaquez (groin) will not travel with the team. Miami already had multiple injuries, so Jovic could be set up for 25-to-30 minutes, depending on who is available. On the season, he has produced 0.98 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute.
Thaddeus Young is another potential value since he could help fill in while the Raptors are without Jakob Poeltl (ankle). Young has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he is only eligible at center, where he brings the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus overall and the highest of all options priced under $7,000.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Even though the Lakers expect to get LeBron James (ankle) back, Anthony Davis is still an excellent center option to build around. He has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection on the entire slate, behind only SGA. He matches the second-most Pro Trends of any player on the slate on DraftKings and tied for the third-most on FanDuel.
Davis had a triple-double in LeBron’s absence on Saturday against the Jazz, finishing with 15 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists. Despite the Lakers’ struggles, Davis has averaged 1.49 DraftKings points and 1.51 FanDuel points per minute in his 16 games since their In-Season Tournament win.
His high volume gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor in this matchup with the Thunder. Against OKC earlier this season, he posted over 56 DraftKings points and over 55 FanDuel points in each of their two meetings. Since he’s in the late game with the Thunder, he can also be a late SGA pivot if you plan things out right.
Value
Nic Claxton has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on FanDuel and the highest at center on DraftKings. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight of his last 10 games, including three ceiling performances. He has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute during that stretch.
Claxton has seven double-doubles in his last eight games and has averaged 1.9 blocks per game over that span as well. He should be fresh after playing just once over the last week coming into this head-to-head matchup with Bam Adebayo, who will have to carry a big workload for the Heat. While both come with upside, Claxton is significantly cheaper and the better value play on Monday.
Fast Break
While Evan Mobley (knee) has been out, Jarrett Allen has been very productive for the Cavaliers. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games on FanDuel and five of his last seven on DraftKings. Allen has eight straight double-doubles and will look to keep rolling in Monday’s matchup with the Bulls. He had 19 points, 17 boards, and seven assists in a big game against the Bulls just before Christmas.
In addition to the Raptors’ Thaddeus Young (discussed above), there should be good value at center from the Jazz-Pacers matchup. Both Jalen Smith and Kelly Oylyk project well in the matchup from the midrange.
Poeltl’s injury should also open an opportunity for Jontay Porter. Michael Porter Jr.’s brother has played in each of the last six games for the Raps and produced 1.01 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute. He produced in multiple categories in 32 minutes in the Raptors’ blowout loss on Friday, and he may have earned a longer look moving forward.
