The NBA has six games ready to roll on Friday’s main slate, including some key divisional matchups between regional rivals. The Wizards are the only team on the slate playing for the second night in a row, but eight of these teams do turn around and play Saturday as part of the massive 13-game schedule to start the weekend before the Association takes Sunday off for Christmas Eve.
Even though there is only one team playing back-to-back, there are still injury situations that will radically impact this slate. Some we know already, like the Mavericks without multiple stars, and others will take shape as the day goes on. It’s critical to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest updates and keep an eye on the news hub leading up to game time.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
After a weird down game in Portland in which he failed to hit a single three-pointer, Stephen Curry bounced just fine with a big 33-point, six-assist game to lead the Warriors past the Celtics on Tuesday. He hit six triples in that contest and easily exceeded salary-based expectations. He is projected for another big game at home on Friday in a juicy matchup against Washington. Curry has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on the slate on FanDuel and the seventh-highest on DraftKings. He has a 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where they dropped his price over the last few weeks.
Curry has been a little inconsistent lately, but most of his down games have come on the road. At home, he is averaging 30.5 points per game compared to 26.5 points per game on the road. He has still produced a solid 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.19 FanDuel points per minute on the season.
The Wizards are a great matchup for Steph since they have the fastest pace in the NBA and the second-worst defensive rating. They have allowed an NBA-leading 126.5 points per game. The Warriors have the highest implied team total on the board, and this game has the highest over/under of the six games on the slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard. Curry may not be the daily fantasy lock he was at his peak, but he’s still a great play in matchups like this one.
Value
Rockets point guard Fred VanVleet has been excellent over the last several weeks and should get a good matchup against the Mavericks, who will be without multiple stars (more below). FVV has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He’s been asked to be a stabilizing veteran force for the young Rockets and so far has excelled in the role.
On the season, VanVleet has a 20.4% usage rate and has produced 1.08 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute. Over his last 10 games, five games, those numbers have jumped to 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.29 FanDuel points per minute. He has also averaged a team-high 40.2 minutes per game over that span. He exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in all five of those games and nine of his last ten.
His last two games have been especially impressive, with 27 points and 17 assists against the Cavs on Monday, followed by 32 points and 15 assists against the Hawks on Wednesday. The Rockets lost both of those games, though, and will likely lean heavily on FVV again in this contest as they look to end a mini-skid of three straight losses.
Fast Break
Trae Young is another good pay-up play to consider. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel as he leads the Hawks into Miami to face the Heat.
Another player our projections really like on Friday night is Tyrese Maxey. Maxey has been excellent this season for the 76ers, averaging 1.18 DraftKings points and 1.17 FanDuel points per minute. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel, behind only Steph, and the fifth-highest at the position on DraftKings.
Of the options priced under $6,000, Malik Monk has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Josh Richardson has extra point guard eligibility and makes a strong value play as he continues to fill in for the Heat, who will be without Jimmy Butler (calf). Richardson played 34 minutes on Wednesday without Butler and should be in an expanded role again in this Southeast Division matchup with the Hawks.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Without Butler, the Heat relied heavily on Tyler Herro on Wednesday in Orlando, and he delivered a game-high 28 points in 36 minutes and added eight rebounds and seven assists. He’s expected to carry the load again on Friday with a 28.4% usage projection that gives him the third-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on FanDuel and the third-highest median projection on DraftKings. He also projects as a good value, ranking in the top six on both sites in Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard.
Herro just returned from a nearly six-week absence but has not shown any rust. He has shot over 50% from the field in each of his two games since returning. He exceeded salary-based expectations in both contests on FanDuel while producing 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute.
He has a 29.4% usage rate with Butler off the floor this season, so he should have plenty of chances to produce against Atlanta. The Hawks have been a pretty neutral matchup against guards this season, but the Heat have the highest pace differential on the slate and the fourth-highest implied team total. It should be another night for Herro ball on South Beach.
Value
The biggest injury situation that floods the market with value is the Mavericks being without Luka Doncic (quad), Kyrie Irving (heel), Dante Exum (leg), Josh Green (elbow), and Dereck Lively (ankle). They will basically be playing a B-squad against the Rockets, but that means there will be tons of usage available for players to step up and claim. Jaden Hardy has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate as a result by a wide margin. He’s very cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel and brings added point guard eligibility on DraftKings, where he has an 84% Bargain Rating.
This will be the first entire game the Mavs are without both Luka and Kyrie this season, but in their minutes off the floor, Hardy has a 31.7% usage rate and has produced 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.30 FanDuel points per minute. Hardy hasn’t played many meaningful minutes lately, but he has been shooting the ball well this season and made multiple three-pointers in each of his last two games.
Hardy will likely be in a high-usage role and should have no trouble returning elite value. Seth Curry (back spasms) is also questionable, so even more playing time and work could be coming Hardy’s way. He flashed a high ceiling last year in games where he was called on to pick up more work, and Hardy will be a key play on Friday’s slate due to the injury situation in Dallas.
Fast Break
Aside from Herro, the other pay-up play that ranks highly in our projections is Devin Booker, as he leads the Suns to Sacramento. Booker has produced 1.39 DraftKings points and 1.32 FanDuel points per minute on the season and will continue to carry the load for Phoneix in the backcourt while Bradley Beal (ankle) is sidelined. Booker has scored over 25 points in six straight games and had 28 points, seven assists, and seven rebounds when the Suns faced the Kings earlier this month.
Rookie Brandin Podziemski was establishing himself as a key part of the Warriors starting five and turning in good numbers before having to leave Tuesday’s game with a back issue. He is questionable, but if he plays through the injury, he should benefit from the matchup with the Wizards. He is in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus at both point guard and shooting guard on DraftKings and the top six in Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel. Klay Thompson has also looked sharp lately and should excel in the matchup.
Especially if Curry ends up being ruled out in addition to the rest of the Mavs, A.J. Lawson could be a great punt play at shooting guard. Lawson is at the minimum salary on DraftKings and only $3,600 on FanDuel. His minutes have been sporadic this season, but he did have 12 points in 19 minutes against the Thunder and six points in 15 minutes against the Nuggets. Those were the only games in which he has played at least 15 minutes, and the rookie from South Carolina will be asked to take on a bigger role on Friday.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
He’s not normally someone I’d classify in this stud category, but due to his situation, Tim Hardaway Jr. looks like he’ll be one of the best plays on the board. In the 63 minutes he has played without Luka and Kyrie, Hardaway has a massive 43.1% usage and has produced 1.45 DraftKings points and 1.30 FanDuel points per minute. He is projected for 31.2% usage in 37.2 minutes on Friday while carrying the load for the short-handed Mavs.
On FanDuel, Hardaway has the second-highest ceiling projection at small forward, behind only Kevin Durant (discussed below), and the third-highest median projection. He has the eighth-highest salary at small forward on FanDuel and a 65% Bargain Rating. On DraftKings, he has the second-highest median projection at small forward and just the 10th-highest salary.
Hardaway had 21 points on Wednesday against the Clippers and has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games. As long as the game doesn’t turn into a blowout early, he should have the opportunity to deliver a big game on Friday.
Value
While Draymond Green has been suspended, Jonathan Kuminga has started four straight games for Golden State. He hadn’t had a big performance, though, until Tuesday against the Celtics when he poured in 17 points and added seven boards in a season-high 34 minutes.
On the season, he has produced 1.0 DraftKings points and 0.93 FanDuel points per minute. Facing the Wizards is a boost to every position, and if Kuminga plays 30+ minutes again, it’s hard to see him not easily hitting value in this game environment.
Fast Break
Jamie Jaquez Jr. is another member of the Heat who will help carry the load without Butler. He is an especially good value on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating. His matchup against the Hawks is a great one, and he’s a strong midrange play on either DraftKings or FanDuel.
Dillon Brooks has been another solid midrange play as he continues to contribute for the Rockets. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel with over 15 points in each contest.
Another punt play from the Mavs to consider is rookie Olivier-Maxence Prosper, who was traded to the Mavs after being a first-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Prosper hasn’t played a lot of minutes or had high usage this season, but he has had a few games where he has popped and flashed some upside.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Kevin Durant has the highest median and ceiling projection of all power forwards and the third-highest on the entire slate, behind only the two elite centers (discussed below). Durant has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel.
Durant gets a great matchup against the Kings and is coming off a 40-point outburst against the Trail Blazers on Tuesday. He has at least 27 points in 15 straight games dating back to early November, and in those 15 games, he averaged an elite 1.41 DraftKings points and 1.37 FanDuel points per minute with a 32.4% usage rate.
Based on the Suns’ matchup against the Kings, both he and Booker are good options on Friday, but Durant stands out a little more since there’s increased positional scarcity at power forward.
Value
Another strong value play from the Mavs is Derrick Jones Jr., who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the second-highest at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only his teammate Tim Hardaway Jr.
Jones has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in seven of his last 10 contests, with four ceiling performances during that span. He has produced 0.84 DraftKings points and 0.87 FanDuel points per minute over that span while playing 29.5 minutes per game, second on the team only behind Luka.
While he’s typically not a high-volume scorer, he could be asked to be more active on offense with all the missing pieces.
Fast Break
On the other side of that Texas-sized value matchup in Houston, Jabari Smith Jr. has the fifth-highest ceiling projection at power forward on DraftKings and the seventh-highest on FanDuel. He also has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating. Smith had a massive 34 points and 13 rebounds on Wednesday against Atlanta.
Kyle Kuzma always has a high ceiling since he carries such high usage for the Warriors, but he can also be very volatile. He has been on a nice run, though, with at least 27 points in four of his last five games and has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in each of those four games.
On FanDuel, Drew Eubanks has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards and he’s also a strong play on DraftKings even though he is only eligible at center. Eubanks has played over 15 minutes in three straight and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those games on FanDuel. He had eight points and six boards in 16 minutes against the Kings earlier this month and usually makes a significant impact in his limited minutes in Phoenix’s second unit.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
As has regularly been the case over the last few weeks since their games have lined up on the schedule, Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic are the two elite options at center on Friday’s slate. Based on matchup and form, Embiid is the stronger play on Friday. He has the higher Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Embiid actually has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on DraftKings, behind only Hardy and Hardaway. He has a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and a +4.28 Opponents’ Plus/Minus.
Embiid has been other-worldly this season, averaging 1.90 DraftKings points and 1.86 FanDuel points per minute on the year. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 12 straight games on DraftKings and 11 of those 12 games on FanDuel. During those 12 games, he has produced 2.05 DraftKings points and 2.01 FanDuel points per minute.
Value
The second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel, behind only Eubanks comes from the Wizards’ Daniel Gafford. Gafford also has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on DraftKings behind only Jokic and Embiid.
Gafford has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his past five games, producing 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.38 FanDuel points per minute. During that stretch, he had a monster game against the Suns, finishing with 26 points, 17 rebounds and two blocks. He also had six blocks in his most recent game against the Blazers on Thursday. As long as he’s ready to go for his regular workload on the second night of the back-to-back, he’ll be the strongest value center play.
Fast Break
In their matchup just over a week ago, Nikola Jokic dominated the Nets with 26 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. He also had a strong bounce-back game on Wednesday in Toronto with 31 points and 15 rebounds. He’s a great play in this rematch in Brooklyn, although Embiid’s matchup and value are just slightly better.
When he has been available, Clint Capela has been putting up good numbers for the Hawks, although he did miss a game due to knee soreness and only played 21 minutes on Wednesday in Houston. He has scored 14+ points in six straight games, with four double-doubles in that span. Over his last four games, he produced 1.4 DraftKings points and 1.45 FanDuel points per minute, so he’s a strong midrange play to consider against Bam Adebayo in Miami.
Like every position on Friday’s slate, the ultra-cheap plays projected to be the best punt plays come from the Mavericks. Dwight Powell will likely start and play big minutes from under $4,000 on FanDuel and under $4,500 on DraftKings.
