The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a two-game slate starting at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Chris Paul put the Thunder on his back in Game 6 vs. the Rockets. He finished with 28 points – 15 of which came in the fourth quarter – resulting in 49.9 FanDuel points. He also logged 39.8 minutes in that contest, and he could see even more playing time in Game 7. Paul currently leads the PG position on FanDuel with 40.4 projected minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.16 FanDuel points per minute this season.
The Rockets also represent an excellent matchup, giving Paul an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.13.
Value
Eric Bledsoe missed Game 1 vs. the Heat with a hamstring injury, and he’s listed as questionable for today’s contest as well.
George Hill could be looking at a lot of playing time if he’s unable to suit up. He logged 36.3 minutes in relief of Bledsoe in Game 1 but struggled to just 13.75 DraftKings points. That said, he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be more productive if he gets a similar workload today.
Make sure to monitor Bledsoe’s status using the new Labs Insiders tool.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic continues to provide excellent value for the Heat. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.08 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s coming off 44.0 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Bucks. He’s upped his fantasy production to 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen plenty of playing time in the playoffs after moving into the starting lineup.
Is it time to buy low on Russell Westbrook? His playing time did increase in his last contest, and the Rockets may not have the luxury of limiting his minutes in a must-win Game 7. Westbrook’s average of 1.39 FanDuel points per minute is easily the top mark at the PG position, and he’s been priced down to just $8,800 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 79%, and Westbrook has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.72 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool). He obviously has more downside than usual, but he has plenty of upside as well.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Sticking with the Rockets, James Harden leads the SG position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel. He’s struggled with Westbrook back in the lineup over his past two games, scoring “just” 43.9 and 47.1 FanDuel points, but Harden obviously possess one of the highest ceilings every time he takes the court.
That said, there are a few things working against him today. For starters, Luguentz Dort has done an excellent job on him defensively in this series. Harden is shooting just 34.1% from the field and 31.3% from 3-point range with Dort serving as his primary defender, which is about is good as you can do when matched up against Harden.
Additionally, Game 7’s have historically been lower scoring than expected. Unders have gone 29-19 in Game 7’s since 2006 per BetLabs, and the under has hit in each of the past six Game 7’s. We saw the Nuggets and Jazz combine for just 158 points yesterday despite both teams being on fire offensively through the first six games of that series.
Value
Tyler Herro has seen a nice boost in playing time during the playoffs. He’s logged at least 28.6 minutes in each of his past six games, and he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has solid upside at his current salary across the industry, but his $5,200 salary on FanDuel is particularly appealing.
Fast Break
The Thunder have a pair of strong options at the SG position in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder. SGA is the better bet for minutes – he’s currently projected for 40.3 minutes in our NBA Models – but Schroder has commanded a higher usage rate recently. Schroder is also one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 88%.
Khris Middleton struggled to start the playoffs, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games. That includes scoring 44.7 FanDuel points in Game 1 vs. the Heat. He remains underpriced at just $7,500 on FanDuel, and his Bargain Rating of 94% is the top mark at the position.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler was incredible in Game 1 vs. the Bucks, scoring 53.5 DraftKings points. He scored 40 points while shooting 65% from the field and 92.3% from the free throw line, which was his top offensive performance of the entire season.
Can he repeat that production today? Consider me skeptical. Butler shot just 45.5% from the field and 24.4% from 3-point range during the regular season, so he definitely appears like a regression candidate in that department. The Bucks’ defense was also the best in the league during the regular season, and the Heat’s implied team total of 108.0 is the second-lowest mark on the slate.
I’m fine with fading Butler in this spot, but if you are going to play him, DraftKings seems like the place to do it. He’s priced at just $8,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Value
Jae Crowder is very reasonably priced across the industry considering his current role with the Heat. He’s coming off nearly 35 minutes in Game 1 of this series, and he’s currently projected for 32.5 minutes for today’s contest. Crowder has averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can take advantage of an increased workload.
Fast Break
Danilo Gallinari had the hot hand early for the Thunder before Paul took over late, and he ultimately finished 38.5 FanDuel points over 28.3 minutes. The lack of playing time is a bit concerning – his lost some minutes to Dort for his defensive ability – but Gallo’s average of 1.00 FanDuel points per minute means he doesn’t necessarily need to play 30 minutes to return value.
Eric Gordon has been excellent for the Rockets recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven games. He has seen a slight decrease in usage with Westbrook back in the lineup, but he’s made up for it by contributing in other areas.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a PF on DraftKings and a SF on FanDuel, but he obviously deserves consideration regardless of where you’re playing him. He struggled a bit a Game 1 – particularly from the FT line – but there’s no reason he can’t bounce back in Game 2. He’s averaged 2.02 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 36.6 minutes in his last game. That was his fourth-highest minute total of his entire season, and his ceiling is astronomical if he sees a similar workload today.
Value
Darius Bazley is an interesting value option for the Thunder today. He’s played at least 22 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s responded with at least 23.75 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has some appeal at just $3,900 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
You can’t play Giannis at PF on FanDuel, so Bam Adebayo is the easy top choice at the position there. He’s coming off 45.4 FanDuel points in Game 1 vs. the Bucks, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games. He’s simply too cheap at $8,000.
Robert Covington has bounced back over his past two games, scoring 47.0 and 42.9 FanDuel points. He’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season, so his production isn’t all that surprising given his current workload. He’s an elite option across the industry.
Center
Stud
Center is the weakest position on today’s slate. Adebayo is an excellent option at the position on DraftKings, but if he’s not an option, Brook Lopez is probably the closest thing to a stud. He’s averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute this season and was arguably the Bucks’ best player in Game 1. He could see a few additional minutes in Game 2 if the Bucks’ offense struggles again.
Value
P.J. Tucker is one of the cheapest sources of minutes on today’s slate. He’s currently projected for 38.3 minutes in our NBA Models at just $4,800 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.09. He doesn’t typically provide a huge ceiling, but he did score 32.2 FanDuel points in Game 6 vs. the Thunder.
Fast Break
Steven Adams has seen his playing time fluctuate a bit in this series, but he has big upside in this matchup. The Rockets have been the worst rebounding team in the league since trading away Clint Capela, and that plays right into Adams’ biggest strength. He was one of the best rebounders during the regular season, and he’s grabbed at least 13 boards in three of his past four games.
Pictured above: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks and Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat.
Photo credit: Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images.
