NBA DFS Breakdown (Tuesday, Aug. 25): Keep Riding the Red-Hot Jazz?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Tuesday features a two-game slate starting at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Jamal Murray is coming off a monster performance in his last game. He piled up 50 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists, resulting in 76.7 FanDuel points. Overall, he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.26 FanDuel points per minute inside the bubble, which is the top mark among today’s PGs. Murray could definitely see a few additional minutes on today’s slate with the Nuggets facing an elimination game.

He also represents one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 83%, and his matchup vs. the Jazz results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.63.

Value

The Clippers lead the slate with an implied team total of 120.5 points, and Reggie Jackson is a cheap way to get some exposure to them. He is no longer starting for the Clippers, but that actually might be a positive for his fantasy value. Instead of having to defer to guys like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, he can serve as one of the offensive focal points of the bench unit. Jackson is coming off his best game of the series in Game 4, and his $3,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.

Fast Break

Monte Morris moved into the starting lineup for the Nuggets in their last game and ultimately finished with 35.6 minutes of playing time. That makes him an interesting target at a pretty cheap price tag across the industry. He struggled in that game, finishing with just 19.9 FanDuel points, but he’s averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season. It’s reasonable to expect better production if he continues to see that much playing time.

The Jazz can do no wrong offensively at the moment. They are averaging a ridiculous 135.0 points per 100 possessions vs. the Nuggets, so they’re obviously a viable team to target on a two-game slate.

That includes Mike Conley, who played 31.7 minutes in his second game back with the team. He finished with 39.25 DraftKings points in that contest, and his workload only figures to increase moving forward.

Shooting Guard

Stud

What is left to say about Luka Doncic at this point? He basically carried the team to a win on one leg in their last contest, racking up 43 points, 17 rebounds, and 13 assists vs. a tough Clippers’ defense. The only other players in the history of the league to have at least 40 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists in a playoff game are Oscar Robertson and Charles Barkley.

He definitely benefitted from the absence of Kristaps Porzingis in that contest, and he could be out once again today. That would make Doncic a really tough fade. Overall, he’s increased his usage rate by +2.0% with Porzingis off the court this season, result in an average of 1.59 FanDuel points per minute.

Value

Jordan Clarkson is another member of the Jazz who is definitely in play today. He’s seen a few less minutes with Conley back in the lineup, but Clarkson has still averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute on the season. He’s someone who is capable of racking up fantasy points in bunches, and he’s reasonably priced across the industry.

Fast Break

Sticking with the Jazz, we have to talk about what Donovan Mitchell has been doing during the playoffs. He’s already scored at least 50 points in two playoff games, which is something he had never previously done throughout his career. Overall, he’s averaged 39.5 points on 56.3% shooting from the field and 51.4% shooting from 3-point range through his first four games vs. the Nuggets.

Mitchell seems like a prime regression candidate moving forward, but that doesn’t mean it has to start today. Offensive numbers are at an all-time high in the bubble, and the Nuggets’ defense has been absolutely putrid.

Paul George has been the anti-Mitchell so far. He can’t buy a bucket, which has caused his salary to drop to just $7,500 on FanDuel. George has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.13 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool), so this is a nice opportunity to buy low on him.

Small Forward

Stud

Kawhi Leonard continues to assert his claim as arguably the best postseason performer in basketball. He’s already won two NBA Finals MVPs with two different teams, and he’s off to a fantastic start in his first year with the Clippers. He’s scored at least 50.0 FanDuel points in each of his first four games, and he’s averaged 57.5 FanDuel points per game over that time frame.

There’s no reason to expect him to decline in today’s contest, and he leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Value

Tim Hardaway Jr. has been a steady contributor through the Mavs’ first four playoff games, scoring at least 26.9 FanDuel points in each. He should see another solid workload in Game 5, and he leads the position with an 83% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Marcus Morris has been a huge part of the Clippers’ success since being acquired by the team before the trade deadline, and that has translated into some fantasy success during the playoffs. He’s coming off a poor outing in his last game, but he scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in each of his three prior contests.

Joe Ingles is basically the only guy on the Jazz who hasn’t gone off vs. the Nuggets, but that could actually work in his favor today. His salary has dropped across the industry – he’s $5,100 on DraftKings and $4,900 on FanDuel – and his poor performances could result in lower ownership than usual.

Power Forward

Stud

There is a wide gap at the PF position between Kristpas Porzingis and everyone else. Kristaps is priced at $9,600 on FanDuel, and no one else at the position is priced above $5,500.

Porzingis has been dominant from a fantasy perspective since the beginning of February. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.83 on FanDuel, and he’s coming off 53.1 FanDuel points in his last game vs. the Clippers.

He’s the easy top choice at the position if he’s able to suit up, so make sure to monitor his status using the Labs Insider tool.

Value

The Nuggets need a good game from Paul Millsap if they want to survive vs. the Jazz today. He’s been their best player this season in terms of Net Rating differential – the Nuggets have increased their Net Rating by +10.8 points per 100 possessions with Millsap on the court per Cleaning the Glass – and he’s one of their few players who is capable of impacting the game on both ends of the court.

Millsap has seen his playing time fluctuate throughout the series, but he’s coming off 35.4 minutes in his last game. It’s hard to see a situation where he busts if he sees that much playing time today given his average of 1.04 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Fast Break

Maxi Kleber is another option today for the Mavs. He’s pretty cheap at $4,200 on DraftKings considering the volume of minutes he’s playing. He’s currently projected for 32.9 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.45. He would obviously become an even stronger option if Porzingis is unable to suit up.

Jerami Grant started alongside Millsap in the Nuggets last game and ultimately finished with 35.7 minutes of playing time. He didn’t exactly dominate in that contest from a fantasy perspective, but it still bodes well for his outlook moving forward. He’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him a solid option at $4,700.

Center

Stud

Nikola Jokic tried to be aggressive last game. He attempted 24 shots vs. the Jazz, which was tied for his second-most shots in a game all season. We know Jokic is capable of piling up the peripheral statistic, so he’s increased upside as a scorer makes him a strong fantasy option at his current price tag.

He’s a particularly appealing target on FanDuel, where he leads all centers with a Bargain Rating of 83%.

Value

Montrezl Harrell has not played well vs. the Mavericks, but I’m going to continue to buy low on him. He’s been priced down to just $4,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%, and he could see a bump in playing time moving forward. He’s logged less than 18 minutes in each of his past two games, but he averaged 27.8 minutes per game during the regular season. Harrell has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some damage at his current price tag with a little more playing time.

Fast Break

Rudy Gobert doesn’t have the same upside as Jokic, but he might be the better pure value across the industry. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his first four games vs. the Nuggets, and he leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.08 on DraftKings.

If Porzingis is ruled out, Boban Marjanovic could be a sneaky punt play for tournaments. He logged 15.7 minutes in his last game, and Marjanovic has averaged 1.56 DraftKings points per minute this season. That is easily the top mark at the position.

Pictured above: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz
Credit: Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images