The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has been an absolute monster in Orlando. He’s scored at least 50.4 FanDuel points in six of his past eight games, and he’s commanded a ridiculous workload recently. He’s logged at least 43.9 minutes in each of his past two games, and that doesn’t seem likely to change with Zach Collins out of the lineup. He leads all players with 43.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.38 FanDuel points per minute in Orlando.
Lillard has been priced up aggressively on DraftKings, but he remains pretty reasonably priced on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $10,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Goran Dragic is way too cheap at $4,400 on DraftKings. He hasn’t played a ton in Orlando, but he’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute when on the court. Overall, Dragic has only had a comparable salary in 10 previous games, but he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.56 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
He should return to his normal workload in the postseason, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t return value in that situation.
Fast Break
Chris Paul leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s been one of the best producers at the position recently, averaging 1.25 FanDuel points per minute, and he could always see a few additional minutes in the playoffs. Paul has averaged 36.75 FanDuel points per game over just 31.5 minutes, so he has a huge ceiling if he can get above 34 on today’s slate.
The Magic have a pair of interesting PG options in Markelle Fultz and D.J. Augustin. Fultz stands out as the superior option – he’s projected for more minutes and has been more productive when on the court – but he is slightly more expensive.
Augustin is the better shooter of the duo, which could increase his value vs. the Bucks. They surrender a lot of 3-point attempts, so the Magic might lean on his shooting a little heavier than usual.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden will likely be the highest-owned player on the slate, but he absolutely deserves to be. The Rockets will be playing without Russell Westbrook, which means Harden will be asked to carry an even larger workload than usual. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.9% in games without Westbrook this season, resulting in an average of 1.65 DraftKings points per minute. He’s averaged 1.90 DraftKings points per minute in the bubble, so he could easily wind up as the highest scorer on the slate.
The Rockets also figure to play a tight rotation sans Westbrook. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them only roll with eight guys, which means Harden could approach 40 minutes.
Value
Evan Fournier is very reasonably priced at the moment. He’s just $4,900 on DraftKings, and Fournier has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.62 with a comparable salary. He has a tough matchup vs. the Bucks, who rank first in the league in defensive efficiency, but they also play at one of the fastest paces. That gives him solid upside if his shot is falling.
If you want to go even cheaper with the Magic, consider Terrance Ross at $4,500. He likely won’t play as many minutes as Fournier, but he has arguably more upside given his ability to score the basketball.
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder is back in the bubble for the Thunder, and he should step into a big role today. Luguentz Dort has been starting recently, but he’s already been ruled out. Terrence Ferguson will likely draw the start, but Schroder should see the majority of the playing time. He’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute, so he can do some damage when given the opportunity.
Jimmy Butler has increased his fantasy production to 1.46 FanDuel points per minute in Orlando, and he’s always a threat to increase his usage rate in the playoffs. He is definitely not afraid of the moment, evidenced by his run with the 76ers during the playoffs last season. He averaged 19.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists despite sharing the court with Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has not lived up to his lofty standards during the restart, but that’s not all that surprising given that he had nothing to play for. He saw limited minutes in a bunch of contests, which never really allowed him to get into a rhythm. That said, he did post a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in two straight games before playing just 14.6 minutes in the regular season finale.
He’s still priced down a bit on FanDuel, where his $10,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s a solid option at that price tag, although he probably doesn’t carry as high of a ceiling as Harden.
Value
Danuel House is another member of the Rockets who should see a bump in value with Westbrook out of the lineup. He finished second on the team in minutes per game in games without Harden, and his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He has a very nice floor at that price tag.
Fast Break
Danilo Gallinari is in a very similar situation to CP3 today. He’s been a strong producer on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.02 FanDuel points per minute, and he could see a few additional minutes with the Thunder now in the postseason. He’s underpriced at $5,200 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Aaron Gordon is currently questionable for the Magic, and James Ennis would likely draw another start if he’s out of the lineup. He should still see a solid amount of playing time even if Gordon is active, which makes him an appealing value at just $3,400.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Harden is an interesting debate on today’s slate. Harden obviously gets the benefit of playing without Westbrook, while the Bucks are at full strength. That said, Giannis still might be the superior option, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 83%. He’s priced at just $10,500, and Giannis has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.60 with a comparable salary this season.
He’s been insanely good on a per-minute basis, averaging 2.04 DraftKings points per minute, but his fantasy production has been kept somewhat in check by an average of just 30.1 minutes per game this season. He’s averaged 36.4 minutes per game during the playoffs throughout his career, and any additional minutes means additional upside.
Value
It’s always difficult to build a unique lineup on a small slate, but rostering someone like Nerlens Noel will definitely increase your chances. He’s averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of minutes to potentially pay off his $3,700 salary.
Fast Break
Giannis stands out as the best value at the position on DraftKings, but Anthony Davis stands out on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $10,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%, and he has an elite matchup vs. the Blazers. They rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season, and losing Collins means they will be without their best option to defend Davis.
Robert Covington is a strong option at $6,500 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he should see plenty of playing time for the shorthanded Rockets.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic leads all players regardless of position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. Vucevic has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.79 with a comparable salary this season, so he’s definitely in play vs. the Bucks.
Value
P.J. Tucker rounds out the value options for the Rockets, and he might be the best of the bunch. He’s currently projected for 33.8 minutes at just $3,700 on FanDuel, and players with comparable minute projections and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.05. Tucker hasn’t been a particularly strong option recently – he’s averaged just 0.52 FanDuel points per minute in Orlando – but it’s hard to ignore someone with that much playing time potential at such a minimal salary.
Fast Break
Steven Adams is in a dream matchup vs. the Rockets. They have been absolutely crushed on the glass since trading away Clint Capela, and they grabbed just 42.7% of rebounds in the bubble. Adams ranks 10th in total rebound rate this season, so he has the potential to pile up the boards in this matchup.
Brook Lopez is easily the best pure value at the position on DraftKings at $4,700. It results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and Lopez has increased his fantasy production to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in Orlando.
